River Flood Warning 5, NWS Birmingham, AL

345 
WGUS84 KBMX 091513
FLSBMX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
913 AM CST WED MAR 9 2011


...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE CAHABA RIVER NEAR CAHABA 
HEIGHTS AND CENTERVILLE...

.HEAVY RAINFALL OF 3 TO 4 INCHES INCHES HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 
24 HOURS OVER THE UPPER CAHABA RIVER DRAINAGE...WITH RAIN EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT 
FOR THE UPPER CAHABA RIVER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN. 

ANOTHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THURSDAY MORNING...OR SOONER IF 
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

ALC007-073-117-100313-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FL.W.0005.110309T1942Z-110311T0400Z/
/CHGA1.1.ER.110309T1942Z.110310T0600Z.110310T1600Z.NO/
913 AM CST WED MAR 9 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CAHABA RIVER NEAR CAHABA HEIGHTS.
* FROM THIS AFTERNOON TO THURSDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS 
  CANCELLED.
* AT  8:30 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.6 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14 FEET. 
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO
  RISE TO NEAR 18 FEET BY AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW . THE RIVER WILL 
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW LATE MORNING .
* IMPACT...AT 17 FEET...FLOODING OF SOME COMMERCIAL PROPERTY IN THE
  AREA BEGINS AT STAGES CONTINUES TO RISE.

$$

ALC007-047-105-100313-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FL.W.0006.110310T0000Z-110311T1445Z/
/CKLA1.1.ER.110310T0000Z.110310T1200Z.110311T0245Z.NO/
913 AM CST WED MAR 9 2011

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE CAHABA RIVER AT CENTREVILLE.
* FROM THIS EVENING TO FRIDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS 
  CANCELLED.
* AT  8:00 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.5 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 23 FEET. 
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE TO 
  RISE TO NEAR 26 FEET BY TOMORROW MORNING . THE RIVER WILL FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW EVENING .

$$

031 
WGUS84 KBMX 092032
FLSBMX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
232 PM CST WED MAR 9 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE CAHABA RIVER NEAR CAHABA 
HEIGHTS AND AT CENTREVILLE...

.HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE 
RISES ON THE CAHABA RIVER...AND A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
NEAR CAHABA HEIGHTS AND AT CENTREVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN. 

ANOTHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THURSDAY MORNING...OR SOONER IF 
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

ALC007-073-117-100832-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-110311T1638Z/
/CHGA1.1.ER.110309T1828Z.110310T0600Z.110311T0438Z.NO/
232 PM CST WED MAR 9 2011

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING...
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CAHABA RIVER NEAR CAHABA HEIGHTS.
* UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 1:30 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.1 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 18.4 FEET BY 
  AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE 
  LATE THURSDAY EVENING .
* IMPACT...AT 17 FEET...FLOODING OF SOME COMMERCIAL PROPERTY IN THE
  AREA BEGINS AS STAGES CONTINUE TO RISE.

$$

ALC007-047-105-100832-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FL.W.0006.110309T2028Z-110311T1452Z/
/CKLA1.1.ER.110309T1855Z.110310T0600Z.110311T0252Z.NO/
232 PM CST WED MAR 9 2011

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING...
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CAHABA RIVER AT CENTREVILLE.
* UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 2 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 24.1 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 23 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 27.6 FEET BY 
  AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE 
  THURSDAY EVENING .
* IMPACT...AT 23 FEET...PASTURE LANDS BEGIN TO FLOOD IN THE 
  CENTREVILLE AREA.

$$

447 
WGUS84 KBMX 100211
FLSBMX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
811 PM CST WED MAR 9 2011


...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE CAHABA RIVER NEAR CAHABA 
HEIGHTS...

.HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS IS PRODUCING RISES ON THE CAHABA
RIVER. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN. 

ANOTHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THURSDAY MORNING...OR SOONER IF 
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

ALC007-073-117-101411-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-110311T1800Z/
/CHGA1.1.ER.110309T1828Z.110310T0600Z.110311T0600Z.NO/
811 PM CST WED MAR 9 2011

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE CAHABA RIVER NEAR CAHABA HEIGHTS.
* UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  7:30 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.8 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 18.4 FEET BY 
  AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW . THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE 
  EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 17.0 FEET...FLOODING OF SOME COMMERCIAL PROPERTY IN THE
  AREA BEGINS.

$$

ALC007-047-105-101411-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-110311T1626Z/
/CKLA1.1.ER.110309T1855Z.110310T0600Z.110311T0426Z.NO/
811 PM CST WED MAR 9 2011

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE CAHABA RIVER AT CENTREVILLE.
* UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  7:00 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 26.6 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 23.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 27.7 FEET BY 
  AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW . THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE 
  TOMORROW LATE EVENING .

$$

869 
WGUS84 KBMX 100903
FLSBMX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
303 AM CST THU MAR 10 2011


...A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE CAHABA RIVER...

.HEAVY RAINFALL OVER OF THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS PRODUCED RISES ALONG
THE CAHABA RIVER AND A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN. 

ANOTHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 10 AM CST MORNING...OR SOONER IF 
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

ALC007-073-117-102103-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-110311T1831Z/
/CHGA1.1.ER.110309T1828Z.110310T0445Z.110311T0631Z.NO/
303 AM CST THU MAR 10 2011

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE CAHABA RIVER NEAR CAHABA HEIGHTS.
* UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  2:30 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.3 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 18.1 FEET BY THIS
  MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT 
  TOMORROW .
* IMPACT...AT 17.0 FEET...FLOODING OF SOME COMMERCIAL PROPERTY IN THE
  AREA BEGINS AT STAGES CONTINUES TO RISE.

$$

ALC007-047-105-102103-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-110311T1654Z/
/CKLA1.1.ER.110309T1855Z.110310T0700Z.110311T0454Z.NO/
303 AM CST THU MAR 10 2011

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE CAHABA RIVER AT CENTREVILLE.
* UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  2:00 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 27.5 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 23.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE A SLOW FALL AND FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  TONIGHT.

$$

ALC047-105-102103-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FL.W.0014.110312T1400Z-110313T1450Z/
/SUTA1.1.ER.110312T1400Z.110313T0000Z.110313T0250Z.NO/
303 AM CST THU MAR 10 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CAHABA RIVER NEAR SUTTLE.
* FROM SATURDAY MORNING TO SUNDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS 
  CANCELLED.
* AT  2:00 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 26.8 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 32.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE 
  TO RISE TO NEAR 32.9 FEET BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 32.0 FEET...FLOODING OF PASTURELANDS OCCURS IN THE 
  SUTTLE AREA.  LIVESTOCK NEED TO BE MOVED TO HIGHER GROUND IF THE 
  RIVER RISES TO 33 FEET OR HIGHER.

$$

403 
WGUS84 KBMX 101551
FLSBMX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
951 AM CST THU MAR 10 2011


...FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAHABA RIVER...

.THE RIVER IS NOW FALLING FROM CENTERVILLE UPSTREAM BUT RISES CONTINUE
BELOW CENTERVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN. 

ANOTHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY FRIDAY MORNING...OR SOONER IF 
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

ALC007-073-117-101621-
/O.CAN.KBMX.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-110311T1831Z/
/CHGA1.1.ER.110309T1828Z.110310T0445Z.110310T1329Z.NO/
951 AM CST THU MAR 10 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE CAHABA RIVER NEAR CAHABA HEIGHTS.
* AT  930 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.5 FEET. 
* FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT  729 AM THURSDAY.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO 3.7 FEET BY TOMORROW 
  MORNING .
* IMPACT...AT 14 FEET...MINOR FLOODING OCCURS IN THE CAHABA HEIGHTS
  AREA.

$$

ALC007-047-105-110351-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-110311T1432Z/
/CKLA1.1.ER.110309T1855Z.110310T0900Z.110311T0232Z.NO/
951 AM CST THU MAR 10 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CAHABA RIVER AT CENTREVILLE.
* UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  9 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 26.8 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 23 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  THIS EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 23 FEET...PASTURE LANDS BEGIN TO FLOOD IN THE 
  CENTREVILLE AREA.

$$

ALC047-105-110351-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FL.W.0014.110312T0524Z-110313T1418Z/
/SUTA1.1.ER.110312T0524Z.110312T1800Z.110313T0218Z.NO/
951 AM CST THU MAR 10 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CAHABA RIVER NEAR SUTTLE.
* FROM FRIDAY EVENING TO SUNDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS 
  CANCELLED.
* AT  9 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 27.6 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 32 FEET. 
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY FRIDAY EVENING  AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 33.2 FEET BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
  RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY SATURDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 32 FEET...FLOODING OF PASTURE LANDS OCCURS IN THE 
  SUTTLE AREA.  LIVESTOCK NEED TO BE MOVED TO HIGHER GROUND IF THE 
  RIVER RISES TO 33 FEET OR HIGHER.

$$

ALC047-105-110351-
/O.ROU.KBMX.HY.S.0000.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MNJA1.N.UU.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
951 AM CST THU MAR 10 2011

FORECAST INFORMATION FOR
  CAHABA RIVER AT MARION JUNCTION.
* AT  9 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 27.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 36 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE TO NEAR 31.6 FEET SATURDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 36 FEET...AT 36 FEET FLOODING IS CONFINED MAINLY TO 
  FARM AND PASTURE LANDS IN THE AREA.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
740 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2011

.UPDATE...MESOSCALE UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FIRST NOTE HAS TO DO WITH THE RADAR ECHOES OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA.
SEVERAL LINES OF REFLECTORS HAVE MOVED NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA AND HAVE EXPANDED EASTWARD WITH TIME. THESE ECHOES ARE NOT
METEOROLOGICAL ECHOES AS THE SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES NOT INDICATE ANY
CONVECTION OR STRATIFORM CLOUDS IN THE AREA. PROBABLY SOME CHAFF.
BUT THIS CHAFF CERTAINLY GIVES US AN IDEA OF THE WIND FLOW IN THE
LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

AREAS GENERALLY NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 HAVE EXPERIENCED
SOME RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. RADAR ESTIMATES 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN WITH
MORE TO COME. SEVERAL OF THESE STORMS HAVE SHOWN INDICATIONS OF
ROTATION ALOFT AS 00Z SOUNDINGS AND MODEL PROJECTIONS SHOW A VERY
LARGE RIGHT TURNING HODOGRAPHS. THESE STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SOME SMALL HAIL BUT TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE NOT
IN THE CARDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE NEAR SURFACE CONDITIONS REMAIN
VERY STABLE THIS EVENING AS SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE ONLY IN THE 40S.
SPEAKING OF INSTABILITY...NEAR SURFACE INSTABILITY IS NON-EXISTENT
THIS EVENING BUT DIVERGENCE ALOFT...PRECIP WATER VALUES 1.2 INCHES
OR GREATER WEST...JET MAX NEAR THE AREA...ALL POINT TO CONTINUED
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.

AS THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT...UPWARD MOTION
AND LIFT INCREASE EVEN MORE AND MOISTURE VALUES RISE. THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT SHOULD INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR MOST OF WESTERN
ALABAMA. AN ADDITIONAL FEW INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE BEFORE
DAYBREAK. THE WARM FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHWARD. HOW FAR NORTH IT GOES REMAINS A CHALLENGE. NO DEFINED
SURFACE LOW TO FOCUS THINGS AS THE TRIPLE POINT APPROACHES. BUT THE
LOW LEVEL JET REALLY KICKS IN AS THE DYNAMIC SYSTEM DEVELOPS. ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE WILL BE A SMALL TORNADO THREAT FOR FAR
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WOULD BE NEAR
LINDEN...AND LIVINGSTON AS A WARM FRONT AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN
THE 60S APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH.

WILL CONTINUE MONITORING THE SITUATION CLOSELY FOR ANY CHANGES IN
THE THREATS OR TIMING.

75/LINHARES

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 257 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2011/.

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

COMPLEX WEATHER SCENARIO SETTING UP OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
TO START THE SHOW...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BECOMING MORE
NUMEROUS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SEVERAL
HAVE EVEN PERSISTED ACROSS THE STATE LINE INTO WEST-CENTRAL
ALABAMA.  WITH THE LOWER FREEZING LEVELS...SEVERAL ELEVATED STORMS
HAVE DISPLAYED A DECENT LOW ALTITUDE HAIL CORE WITH DIME TO PENNY
SIZED HAIL REPORTED AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS THIS MORNING.  THIS LOOKS
TO BEGIN BEING THE RULE RATHER THAN THE EXCEPTION AS DEVELOPMENT IS
CONTINUING WELL INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.  THE
HARDER QUESTION IS WHY IS ALL THE DEVELOPMENT AND CONVECTION
PERSISTING SO FAR NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT?  WHEN ANALYZING
THE UPPER LEVEL FIELDS...THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM AROUND 925 TO 700MB WITH DEWPOINTS AND WINDS
INCREASING WITH HEIGHTS.  THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH SOME DECENT
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS ALLOWING THE CONVECTION TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING
WELL NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.  THIS TREND DOESN'T APPEAR TO SLOW AS
WE MOVE THROUGH THE EVENING AND EVEN OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY BEGINS THE SLOW TREK NORTHWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS.

AS WE BEGIN TO TRANSITION INTO THE EVENING...SURFACE FEATURES
BECOME INCREASING COMPLEX...WITH PERHAPS A DOUBLE WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH.  IT IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN AT THE MOMENT HOW MUCH LIFT WILL
BE ALONG THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY...AS THE SOUTHERN ONE...CURRENTLY
ALONG THE GULF COAST...WILL LIKELY END UP BEING THE DOMINANT
FEATURE.  THIS WOULD LEAVE ELEVATED CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN
THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY NORTH.  THE CONVECTIVE
RAINFALL TODAY CERTAINLY ISN'T HELPING MUCH...AS THE THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING REMAINS MODERATE TO HIGH.  AS THE
MAIN SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD...STORMS WILL HAVE THE
ABILITY TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SURFACE BASED...WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR
ON THE INCREASE AS WELL.  THIS WILL UP THE CHANCES FOR MIGRATING
BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND MCS/QLCS DEVELOPMENT BY MORNING. WE NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH THIS EVENT AS IT
CONTINUES TO EVOLVE.

ALL THIS...AND WE HAVEN'T BEGUN TO DISCUSS TOMORROW'S SCENARIO.

17/KLAWS

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

OVERNIGHT...THE RADAR MAY LOOK FAIRLY CHAOTIC AS SEVERAL WAVES MAY
IMPACT THE AREA. FIRST WILL BE THE ONGOING WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE
AREA. THE SECOND WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTH.
WITH THE THIRD THE DEVELOPING MCS ACROSS MISSISSIPPI.

MAIN FOCUS OF THIS UPDATE REMAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ONGOING MCS WILL ROLLING THROUGH THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA...GENERALLY FROM THE ALICEVILLE TO
AUBURN LINE. REALLY EXPECT THE SEVERE THREAT TO BE FROM A 6 AM TO
NOON TIMEFRAME ACROSS THIS AREA. BIGGEST THING TO WATCH FOR AS FAR
AS SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL THE 60 DEGREE LINE AS WELL AS THE 65
DEGREE LINE. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS TAKE THIS 60 DEGREE LINE ALL
THE WAY TO HUNTSVILLE...WITH THE 65 DEGREE LINE WORKING INTO AN AREA
FROM DEMOPOLIS TO MONTGOMERY LINE. HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE ON THE 60
DEGREE LINE WORKING TOWARD THE I-20 CORRIDOR AHEAD OF THE MCS. ONE
THING TO WATCH WILL BE THE MERGING OF CELLS AS THE WARM FRONT BEGINS
TO INTERACT WITH THE MCS OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THIS WILL AT LEAST
ENHANCE THE RAINFALL OVER THE AREA...WITH A MARGINAL CHANCE OF
INCREASING THE SEVERE AND TORNADIC THREATS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD. MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION WILL CLEAR THE AREA BETWEEN NOON AND
3 PM IN THE WEST AND 6 PM TO 9 PM IN THE EAST.

WITH THAT SAID THE THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOP WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
THE FRONT CAN ACTUALLY WORK THROUGH THE AREA. SHORT RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT SOME ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT.
IF THIS DEVELOPMENT DOES OCCUR...THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL. ONCE THE FRONT AND RAIN CLEARS...FOCUS TURNS
TO THE CLOUD COVER FOR THE THURSDAY AND THE ANTICIPATED HIGH
TEMPERATURES. MODELS HANDLED THE CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES HORRIBLY ON
SUNDAY. SINCE THIS AIRMASS LOOKS VERY SIMILAR WILL GO WELL BELOW
GUIDANCE FOR THURSDAY. WITH THAT SAID...I MAY EVEN BE TOO WARM.

WARMING TREND BEGINS ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND ALONG WITH RAIN FREE WEATHER. TRENDED TOWARD CLIMATE BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ONCE
AGAIN BY EITHER MONDAY OR NEXT TUESDAY...GIVEN MODEL TIMING. THE GFS
IS FASTEST ON MONDAY AND THE EURO BRINGS IT IN ON TUESDAY. WENT
AHEAD AND INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

16

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POOR ACROSS MOST OF OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...AS RAIN HAS OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE. ALTHOUGH A FEW BREAKS IN THE RAINFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED AT TIMES...THE PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL FEATURE MOSTLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WITH VCTS...WHICH WILL CAUSE MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS. THE SOUTHERN TAF LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN SPARED
TODAY...BUT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FOR MGM AND TOI AFTER 06Z AS
WELL. EXPECTING IFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED TSRA FOR ALL SITES FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF THE LINE TRAVERSING FROM TCL BY 18Z...TO TOI BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM
THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10-15 KTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20.

NOTICE...KEET TAF WILL HAVE (AMD LTD TO VIS WIND AND WX) AMENDED TO
THE END OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE 2010/2011 WINTER
SEASON. THE CEILOMETER DATA WILL BE GOING THROUGH NUMEROUS TESTS AND
MONITORED FOR ACCURACY.

56/GOGGINS

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

LATEST TRENDS HAVE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF GENERALLY 2 TO 5 INCHES
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...WITH ISOLATED LOCALLY GREATER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. SOILS HAVE MOISTENED FOLLOWING
THE PAST WEEKENDS RAINFALL AND CENTRAL ALABAMA STREAMS AND RIVERS
ARE RUNNING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY COULD RESULT IN RISES ALONG RIVERS AND STREAMS
AGAIN...AND AT THIS TIME SOME MINOR RIVER FLOODING COULD
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ON PARTS OF THE TOMBIGBEE AND LOWER WARRIOR
RIVERS.

IN ADDITION TO RIVER FLOODING...FLASH FLOODING WILL MOSTLY LIKELY
BECOME A CONCERN.  WITH GROUND MOISTURE VALUES FAIRLY HIGH AND
HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED...EXCESSIVE RUNOFF COULD RESULT IN SOME
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ON WEDNESDAY.  THUS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
745 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2011

ALZ011>015-017>050-100147-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
745 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES AS
A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS WEST OF ALABAMA. THIS HEAVY
RAIN WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST
OF A LINE FROM UNIONTOWN...TO BIRMINGHAM...TO ONEONTA.

WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD
INCREASE TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA NEAR LINDEN AND
LIVINGSTON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE AND DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF TWO TO FIVE INCHES...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING
AND MINOR RIVER FLOODING. THERE IS A HIGH LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE OF THE
FLOODING THREAT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS...
SMALL HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SMALL RISK FOR THESE STORMS TO
DEVELOP AS FAR NORTH AS THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR...
HOWEVER...THE GREATEST RISK WILL GENERALLY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM ALICEVILLE TO AUBURN.

FINALLY...BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY BOTH
AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE THREAT OF FLOODING AND
SEVERE WEATHER.

73

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
619 PM CST TUE MAR 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0618 PM     FLASH FLOOD      VERNON                  33.76N 88.11W
03/08/2011                   LAMAR              AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            5 ROADWAYS ARE CURRENTLY IMPASSABLE NEAR VERNON DUE TO
            HIGH WATER OVER THE ROADWAY.

&&

LINHARES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
621 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2011

ALZ012-090045-
LAMAR AL-
621 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN LAMAR COUNTY UNTIL 645
PM CST...

AT 621 PM CST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTH OF MILLPORT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
CODY AROUND 630 PM CST.
BLOOMING GROVE AROUND 635 PM CST.

&&

LAT...LON 3394 8796 3391 8795 3368 8795 3353 8811
      3367 8825
TIME...MOT...LOC 0021Z 230DEG 37KT 3366 8809

73