Areal Flood Warning 2, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
749 AM CST WED MAR 9 2011

.UPDATE...FOR MORNING FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES WITH
PROGRESSION OF THE MAIN LINE. REDEVELOPMENT IS STILL A REMOTE
POSSIBILITY SO HAVE NOT REMOVED COMPLETELY BUT LOWERED CONSIDERABLY.
WITH ONGOING FLOODING IN THE NORTHWEST LET THE WATCH STAND FOR
NOW.

08/MNK

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE VERY COMPLEX. A NARROW
LINE OF VERY HEAVY RAIN AND STORMS IS MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY EWD
ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT VIS TO DROP TO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR AS THE
LINE MOVES THRU. WIND GUSTS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 30-35 KTS ALONG THE
LINE AS WELL. LINE SHOULD REACH ANB/MGM SHORTLY AFTER 13Z. THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE LINE WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE SOUTHERN
END. SHRA WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HRS AFTER THE LINE MOVES THRU.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME REDEVELOPMENT OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
LATER TODAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR RADAR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS AND UPDATE FORECAST IF NECESSARY.

CIGS HAVE BEEN A PROBLEM ALL NIGHT AS THEY HAVE FLUCTUATED BETWEEN
MVFR AND VFR. WILL GO AHEAD WITH PREVAILING MVFR CIGS...ALTHOUGH
BRIEF PERIODS OF VFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE. CIGS SHOULD LOWER THRU THE
DAY...AND MODELS BRING IN IFR CONDITIONS BY THIS EVENING BEHIND THE
FRONT. SRLY WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE E AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. EVEN
WITH ALL OF THE RAIN DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO BE A WIDESPREAD ISSUE AT
THIS TIME DUE TO ELY WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS.

NOTICE...KEET TAF WILL HAVE (AMD LTD TO VIS WIND AND WX) AMENDED TO
THE END OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE 2010/2011 WINTER
SEASON. THE CEILOMETER DATA WILL BE GOING THROUGH NUMEROUS TESTS AND
MONITORED FOR ACCURACY.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CST WED MAR 9 2011/

DISCUSSION...

HIGHER DEW POINTS CREEPING FURTHER NORTH INTO ALABAMA THIS
MORNING...WITH UPPER 50S ALREADY MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA NEAR DEMOPOLIS. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS JUST
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
INTO COASTAL ALABAMA. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A LITTLE
FURTHER PROGRESS INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING BEFORE BEING
OVERTAKEN BY THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR NORTH THIS BOUNDARY PROGRESSES WILL HELP DETERMINE HOW
UNSTABLE WE WILL BECOME. LATEST MODELS TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
BEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY MAINLY SOUTH OF AN ALICEVILLE TO
CLANTON LINE THIS MORNING AND SHIFTING EASTWARD DURING THE
AFTERNOON TO A CLANTON TO LAFAYETTE LINE. LI'S OF -4 TO -8 THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH CAPE FROM 1800-2200 J/KG
ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...BEST LIFT IS SOMEWHAT OFFSET AND SHIFTS TO
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA BY 18Z. TOTAL TOTALS ARE WEAK DURING
THE MORNING REMAINING UNDER 50 WITH BETTER VALUES TO OUR SOUTH.
THIS AFTERNOON DOES BRING A MEAGER SPIKE TO OUR WEST WITH
INSTABILITY MORE IN LINE WITH THE COLD FRONT. MAIN THREAT WILL BE
THE HEAVY RAIN TODAY WITH ALREADY WET SOILS FROM SATURDAY'S
RAINS AND ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO POSSIBLY 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. BOTTOM LINE WILL BE A HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD EVENT WITH
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTH NOT TO BE
RULED OUT.

FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS ALABAMA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING
FOR THE MOST PART IN THE EVENING BUT COULD HAVE SOME WRAP AROUND
LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON THURSDAY BEFORE THE
MOISTURE EXITS AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN OVER THE
PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND THE GULF COAST ON FRIDAY. MUCH COOLER
READINGS ARE ON TAP FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN
THE 30S GENERALLY. WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME LINGERING CLOUDINESS ON
THURSDAY WITH THE WRAP AROUND ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND.

RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO BE LOW DUE TO TIMING ISSUES IN THE EXTENDED WITH THE
MODELS. GFS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH OUR NEXT SYSTEM. EURO
IS NOW INTRODUCING RAINFALL BACK BUT SLIGHTLY LATER THAN MONDAY
DAY FOR THE MOST PART. GFS IS RATHER QUICK TO DEVELOP THE LOW OVER
TEXAS ON SUNDAY SENDING IT EASTWARD BY MONDAY. HAVE SOME LOW POPS
IN FOR MONDAY...BUT THINK THAT IT MAY TAKE LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY
TO SUFFICIENTLY ERODE THE RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE GULF.

08/MNK

HYDROLOGY...

LATEST TRENDS HAVE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF GENERALLY 2 TO OVER 5
INCHES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...WITH ISOLATED LOCALLY GREATER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST. SOILS HAVE MOISTENED FOLLOWING
THE PAST WEEKENDS RAINFALL AND CENTRAL ALABAMA STREAMS AND RIVERS
ARE RUNNING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. WITH ONGOING HEAVY RAIN
AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY...THIS COULD RESULT IN
RISES ALONG RIVERS AND STREAMS AGAIN...AND AT THIS TIME SOME MINOR
RIVER FLOODING COULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ON PARTS OF THE
TOMBIGBEE AND LOWER WARRIOR RIVERS.

IN ADDITION TO RIVER FLOODING...FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN A
CONCERN. WITH GROUND MOISTURE VALUES FAIRLY HIGH AND ONGOING HEAVY
RAINFALL TO CONTINUE...EXCESSIVE RUNOFF COULD CONTINUE TO RESULT
IN SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING TODAY. THUS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WHICH IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

08/MNK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     67  42  49  34  56 / 100  40  30  10   0
ANNISTON    68  42  51  32  59 / 100  50  20  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  69  40  50  33  58 / 100  30  20   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  73  41  55  34  62 / 100  20  10   0   0
CALERA      71  41  52  34  60 / 100  30  10   0   0
AUBURN      68  44  54  33  60 / 100  60  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  74  45  58  35  62 / 100  50  10   0   0
TROY        72  44  59  33  61 / 100  60  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

&&

08/19

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
725 AM CST WED MAR 9 2011

ALZ011>015-017>050-101200-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
725 AM CST WED MAR 9 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY.
THIS HEAVY RAIN HAS LED TO FLASH FLOODING ACROSS MANY AREAS IN THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA AND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING ACROSS OTHER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE RAIN
CONTINUES EASTWARD. 2 TO 6 INCHES OF STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WEST.

GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH.

THERE WILL BE AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT THIS MORNING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A DEATSVILLE TO AUBURN LINE...BUT THIS THREAT WILL BE
LIMITED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP DURING THE DAY THURSDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY DUE TO THE THREAT OF FLOODING ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA.

08

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
757 AM CST WED MAR 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 AM     FLASH FLOOD      GADSDEN                 34.01N 86.01W
03/09/2011                   ETOWAH             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE ROADS FLOODED IN GADSDEN INCLUDING 11TH STREET,
            6TH STREET, FURMAN ROAD, AND COLLEGE PARKWAY.

&&

KSUMRALL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
758 AM CST WED MAR 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 AM     FLASH FLOOD      GREENSBORO              32.70N 87.59W
03/09/2011                   HALE               AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            OVER ONE FOOT OF WATER ACROSS COUNTY ROAD 4, COUNTY ROAD
            19, AND BATESMILL ROAD. MULTIPLE TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS.

&&

KSUMRALL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
803 AM CST WED MAR 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0752 AM     FLASH FLOOD      GADSDEN                 34.01N 86.01W
03/09/2011                   ETOWAH             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE ROADS FLOODED IN GADSDEN INCLUDING 11TH STREET,
            6TH STREET, FURMAN ROAD, AND COLLEGE PARKWAY.

&&

KSUMRALL