Severe Thunderstorm Warning 248, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
344 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY...AND
BRING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM LEE
INTERACTS WITH THIS FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY...PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION
TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WILL BE BRIEF DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS. TSRA
INCREASING IN COVERAGE THIS AFTN AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING
SLOWLY ACROSS SE ONTARIO WITH GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORCING. CLUSTERS
AND LINES OF STORMS DEVELOPING AND WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR TRAINING
ECHOS/HEAVY RAIN AS WELL AS THE THREAT FOR WINDS AND HAIL. EXPECT
STORMS TO DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING WITH DECREASED INSTABILITY,
AND A MORE GENERAL SHOWERS/RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER DURING THE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WE CONTINUED TO LEAN HEAVILY ON THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF RUNS FOR THIS
PERIOD WHICH HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER FOR LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS AT LEAST WITH THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES. BOTH MODELS PUT THE
BEST CHCS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE FRONT ON MONDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL NY IN THE VERY EARLY HRS THRU ABOUT MID DAY...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHEAST ZONES DURING THE AFTN/EVENING. THE
GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO BE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT, AS THE REMNANTS OF LEE ARE A BIT SLOWER TO MOVE NWD AND
REALLY HANG UP THE FRONT. THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE
DETAILS...TIMING AND PLACEMENT AS WELL AS AMTS OF HEAVIEST RAIN,
MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHERE AND WHEN A WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED. FOR OUR MOST SENSITIVE AREAS IN THE WRN CATSKILLS AND
POCONOS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN LAST WEEK...LOOKS LIKE HEAVIER
RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT MAY BE BOTH NORTHWEST
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY FOR POSSIBLE QUICK FFA IF IT LOOKS LIKE
HEAVIER RAIN MAY SET UP IN THIS REGION.

ON TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE AGREED FOR LAST FEW RUNS ON BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST...PUSHING THE
FRONT TO THE SOUTH. THIS WOULD GIVE US A COOLER BUT DRY DAY WITH A
GOOD DEAL OF SUN.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE FROM REMNANTS OF LEE WORK
NORTHWARD, PERHAPS INTO AT LEAST SRN SECTIONS OF THE FA. STILL A
LOT OF QUESTIONS ABOUT WHAT PATH THE LOW WILL TAKE, BUT LATEST
GUIDANCE FROM GFS AND ECMWF BRINGS LOW INTO THE TN VALLEY AND
WEAKENS IT INTO AN OPEN WAVE. KEPT CHC POPS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY ACROSS SRN AREAS ONLY...WITH HIGHEST CHC ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN WYOMING VALLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...WITH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WX HPC GUIDANCE WAS LOADED AND
FOLLOWED EXCEPT FOR A FEW MINOR TWEAKS. LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE
TO BACK OFF ON THE ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHERLY
FLOW OUT OF AHEAD OF LEE. BOTH THE GFS AND 0Z EURO SHOW THAT THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP/CLOUD SHIELD MAY STOP ACROSS IT'S
NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT AROUND THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY THURSDAY
BEFORE MOVING BACK TO THE SOUTH BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PATCHY MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN HZ THIS AFTN...RESTRICTIONS INCRSNG
WITH TIME AS SHRA/TSRA INCREASE IN AREAL CVRG. ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST INTO THE OVRNGT HRS...WITH IFR MOST LOCATIONS AFTER FROPA
LATE TNGT OR EARLY TMRW MRNG DUE TO RAIN/CIGS/BR. WINDS THIS AFTN
GNRLY FROM THE SW AT 10-15 KTS...SWLY TNGT ARND 10 KTS BECMG NRLY
5-10 KTS AFTER FROPA.

OUTLOOK...

MON NGT...PATCHY MVFR IN CIGS ACRS CNTRL NY.

TUE...VFR.

TUE NGT...MVFR LATE IN CIGS/RAIN.

WED INTO FRI...MVFR NE PA/SRN NY IN RAIN OR SHOWERS...VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JML
NEAR TERM...JML
SHORT TERM...JML
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
305 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2011

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-051915-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-
SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-
OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-
NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
305 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 835 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE COMBINATION OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...AND THE POSSIBLE
INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE...COULD BRING A PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE REGION...MAINLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. CONTINUE
TO CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES....ESPECIALLY THOSE WHO WERE IMPACTED BY
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM IRENE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
416 PM EDT SUN SEP 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HAIL             2 S BINGHAMTON          42.07N  75.91W
09/04/2011  M1.00 INCH       BROOME             NY   PUBLIC

            THE HAIL WAS REPORTED IN THE TOWN OF HAWLEYTON SOUTH OF
            BINGHAMTON

&&

MJN

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
445 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2011

NYZ044>046-056-042130-
BROOME NY-CHENANGO NY-CORTLAND NY-OTSEGO NY-
445 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL CHENANGO...EXTREME NORTH
CENTRAL BROOME...EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CORTLAND AND EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN OTSEGO COUNTIES...

* AT 444 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SMITHVILLE
  FLATS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  TYNER AND SOUTH OXFORD AT 455 PM EDT...
  OXFORD AT 505 PM EDT...
  PRESTON AT 515 PM EDT...
  POLKVILLE AT 520 PM EDT...
  NORWICH AND SOUTH PLYMOUTH AT 525 PM EDT...

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

LAT...LON 4260 7553 4247 7538 4227 7575 4241 7590

HEDEN

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