Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Flash Flood Watches in 2011

Flash Flood Watch 9, NWS Binghamton, NY

September 4, 20116 counties in New York; 7 counties in Pennsylvania

NWS Binghamton, NY issued this flash flood watch at Sep 4, 2011, 7:50 PM EDT for 6 counties in New York; 7 counties in Pennsylvania. It was in force for 30 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Sep 4, 2011, 7:50 PM EDT (23:50 UTC)
Expired
Sep 6, 2011, 2:18 AM EDT
In force
30 hr
Issued by
NWS Binghamton, NY
Flood severity
None

Counties Broome County, NY, Chenango County, NY, Delaware County, NY, Otsego County, NY, Sullivan County, NY, Tioga County, NY, Bradford County, PA, Lackawanna County, PA, Luzerne County, PA, Pike County, PA, Susquehanna County, PA, Wayne County, PA, Wyoming County, PA

The radar

The Binghamton radar (KBGM), 50 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 11.8 hours before the alert went out and 173 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Albany, NY at 12:00Z on 2011-09-04Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 277 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Albany, NY at 12:00Z on 2011-09-04The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 77 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
277 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-194 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
765 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
23 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
77 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
106 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Binghamton, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood watch went out at Sep 4, 3:44 PM EDT, 4 hours 6 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 4, 3:44 PM EDT, 4 hours 6 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
344 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY...AND
BRING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM LEE
INTERACTS WITH THIS FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY...PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION
TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WILL BE BRIEF DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS. TSRA
INCREASING IN COVERAGE THIS AFTN AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING
SLOWLY ACROSS SE ONTARIO WITH GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORCING. CLUSTERS
AND LINES OF STORMS DEVELOPING AND WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR TRAINING
ECHOS/HEAVY RAIN AS WELL AS THE THREAT FOR WINDS AND HAIL. EXPECT
STORMS TO DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING WITH DECREASED INSTABILITY,
AND A MORE GENERAL SHOWERS/RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER DURING THE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WE CONTINUED TO LEAN HEAVILY ON THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF RUNS FOR THIS
PERIOD WHICH HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER FOR LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS AT LEAST WITH THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES. BOTH MODELS PUT THE
BEST CHCS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE FRONT ON MONDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL NY IN THE VERY EARLY HRS THRU ABOUT MID DAY...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHEAST ZONES DURING THE AFTN/EVENING. THE
GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO BE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT, AS THE REMNANTS OF LEE ARE A BIT SLOWER TO MOVE NWD AND
REALLY HANG UP THE FRONT. THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE
DETAILS...TIMING AND PLACEMENT AS WELL AS AMTS OF HEAVIEST RAIN,
MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHERE AND WHEN A WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED. FOR OUR MOST SENSITIVE AREAS IN THE WRN CATSKILLS AND
POCONOS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN LAST WEEK...LOOKS LIKE HEAVIER
RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT MAY BE BOTH NORTHWEST
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY FOR POSSIBLE QUICK FFA IF IT LOOKS LIKE
HEAVIER RAIN MAY SET UP IN THIS REGION.

ON TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE AGREED FOR LAST FEW RUNS ON BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST...PUSHING THE
FRONT TO THE SOUTH. THIS WOULD GIVE US A COOLER BUT DRY DAY WITH A
GOOD DEAL OF SUN.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE FROM REMNANTS OF LEE WORK
NORTHWARD, PERHAPS INTO AT LEAST SRN SECTIONS OF THE FA. STILL A
LOT OF QUESTIONS ABOUT WHAT PATH THE LOW WILL TAKE, BUT LATEST
GUIDANCE FROM GFS AND ECMWF BRINGS LOW INTO THE TN VALLEY AND
WEAKENS IT INTO AN OPEN WAVE. KEPT CHC POPS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY ACROSS SRN AREAS ONLY...WITH HIGHEST CHC ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN WYOMING VALLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...WITH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WX HPC GUIDANCE WAS LOADED AND
FOLLOWED EXCEPT FOR A FEW MINOR TWEAKS. LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE
TO BACK OFF ON THE ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHERLY
FLOW OUT OF AHEAD OF LEE. BOTH THE GFS AND 0Z EURO SHOW THAT THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP/CLOUD SHIELD MAY STOP ACROSS IT'S
NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT AROUND THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY THURSDAY
BEFORE MOVING BACK TO THE SOUTH BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PATCHY MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN HZ THIS AFTN...RESTRICTIONS INCRSNG
WITH TIME AS SHRA/TSRA INCREASE IN AREAL CVRG. ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST INTO THE OVRNGT HRS...WITH IFR MOST LOCATIONS AFTER FROPA
LATE TNGT OR EARLY TMRW MRNG DUE TO RAIN/CIGS/BR. WINDS THIS AFTN
GNRLY FROM THE SW AT 10-15 KTS...SWLY TNGT ARND 10 KTS BECMG NRLY
5-10 KTS AFTER FROPA.

OUTLOOK...

MON NGT...PATCHY MVFR IN CIGS ACRS CNTRL NY.

TUE...VFR.

TUE NGT...MVFR LATE IN CIGS/RAIN.

WED INTO FRI...MVFR NE PA/SRN NY IN RAIN OR SHOWERS...VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JML
NEAR TERM...JML
SHORT TERM...JML
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...
Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 4, 7:05 PM EDT, 45 minutes before
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In the hours before

Local storm report, Sep 4, 5:25 PM EDT, 2 hours 25 minutes before
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Local storm report, Sep 4, 5:27 PM EDT, 2 hours 23 minutes before
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Local storm report, Sep 4, 6:12 PM EDT, 1 hour 38 minutes before
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Special weather statement, Sep 4, 6:14 PM EDT, 1 hour 36 minutes before
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Local storm report, Sep 4, 6:35 PM EDT, 1 hour 15 minutes before
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Local storm report, Sep 4, 6:46 PM EDT, 1 hour 4 minutes before
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The office that day

Everything else NWS Binghamton, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 3, 9:25 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementBGMSteuben50 min
Sep 4, 7:44 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementBGMMadison46 min
Sep 4, 7:52 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMMadison, Oneida37 min
Sep 4, 8:53 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementBGMOtsego67 min
Sep 4, 11:09 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementBGMSullivan51 min
Sep 4, 2:27 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMChemung, Tioga48 min
Sep 4, 3:06 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMBroome, Tioga39 min
Sep 4, 3:32 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementBGMOtsego43 min
Sep 4, 3:40 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMBroome50 min
Sep 4, 4:07 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryBGMBroome3 hr
Sep 4, 4:10 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMOtsego50 min
Sep 4, 4:20 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMBroome, Chenango, Delaware55 min
Sep 4, 4:25 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryBGMOtsego3 hr
Sep 4, 4:45 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementBGMChenango45 min
Sep 4, 4:49 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMChenango, Otsego35 min
Sep 4, 4:52 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMChenango, Cortland, Madison, Oneida, Otsego47 min
Sep 4, 5:16 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMDelaware59 min
Sep 4, 5:31 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryBGMDelaware3 hr
Sep 4, 5:36 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryBGMChenango, Madison3 hr
Sep 4, 6:14 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementBGMOneida31 min
Sep 4, 6:48 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryBGMTioga3 hr
Sep 4, 9:56 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementBGMWayne49 min
Sep 4, 3:01 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementBGMLuzerne59 min
Sep 4, 3:05 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryBGMLackawanna, Luzerne3 hr
Sep 4, 3:12 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMLuzerne48 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Watches in Pennsylvania, 2011Flash Flood Watches in New York, 2011Every flash flood watch in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.