Severe Thunderstorm Warning 54, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
415 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND...BRINGING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY
LEVELS TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY WESTWARD ALONG AN AXIS OF 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE.
NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE SHEAR PROFILE BECOMES SOMEWHAT
LESS UNIDIRECTIONAL AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...WITH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES REACHING 40-45KT. ADDITIONALLY...A DRY LAYER CENTERED
AROUND 700MB SHOULD COMBINE WITH THE SHEAR PROFILE TO SUPPORT MORE
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS AND A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. OVERALL THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED IN NATURE.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECAY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...MOIST
SOUTHERLY SUBTROPICAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE. GIVEN THIS...SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY
MILD FOR APRIL WITH MINIMA AROUND 70. THIS WILL BE ABOVE RECORD HIGH
MINS AT RIC AND ORF. HOWEVER...CALENDAR DAY LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE BELOW THESE VALUE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DISCUSSED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM THAT HAS PRODUCED WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL LIFT NE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC.
MODEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY CONTINUE. THE SHEAR PROFILE IS MAINLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL...SO THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL BE STRONG WIND
GUSTS. SPC HAS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK...WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY (30%) OVER THE TIDEWATER AND NE NC. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE COAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH DRIER
COOLER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S WEST...TO MID TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST.

A COLD POOL ALOFT DRIFTS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LINGERING
SURFACE MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS DURING
PEAK HEATING HOURS. HOWEVER...GFS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LIMITING INSTABILITY AND THE PROBABILITY
OF ANY RAIN SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID
70S FRIDAY...EVEN TO THE COAST WITH WESTERLY FLOW AFTER MORNING LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW
50S...BEFORE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...LOCALLY COOLER ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HI PRES SLOLY DRIFTS OFF THE CST SAT (AFTN)...THEN RMNS THERE
THROUGH MON. XPCTG DRY/SEASONABLE WX SAT...TEMPS A TAD HIER ON
SUN/MON AS LLVL FLO TURNS SSWLY. NEXT CDFNT SLO TO ARRIVE FM THE W
LT MON/MON NGT...THEN REACHES THE CST TUE AFTN/EVE. COOLING DN TUE
W/ CLDS/PSBL PCPN AND WNDSHFT TO NNW POST FNTL. WL HV POPS AOB 10%
THROUGH SUN NGT/MON MRNG...THEN INCRS TO HI CHC ASSOCD W/ CDFNT
ARRIVAL/PASSAGE LT MON NGT INTO TUE. DRYING OUT FOR WED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PDS OF MVFR CIGS...W/ SCTD CNVTN THROUGH THE EVE HRS. PTNTL FOR IFR
IN LWR VSBYS DUE TO TSRA. LLVL FLO RMNG FM THE S OVRNGT...W/ PSBL
(WDSPRD) MVFR CIGS (1-2KFT). TMG OF CDFNT PASSAGE...W/ ASSOCD
SHRAS/PSBL T AND MVFR CONDS MID/LT MRNG INTO LT AFTN HRS (FM W-E).
CLRG OUT AND VFR CONDS THU NGT THROUGH FRI (THOUGH COULD BE CIGS FRI
ABV 3KFT). VFR THIS WKND.

&&

.MARINE...
INCRSG S WNDS INTO THE OVRNGT HRS...TO AVGG 20-25 KT ON (MUCH OF)
BAY/SND...TO 25 TO 30 KT ON THE OCN. HIER SPDS TO LAST THROUGH THU
MRNG...B4 DIMINISHING AS CDFNT ARRIVES FM W. THAT CDFNT CRSS THE
WTRS LT THU AFTN/EVE...THEN WELL E OVRNGT FRI NGT...SWITCHING WNDS
TO SW...THEN W AND NW (BY SAT). SFC HI PRES SETS UP OFF THE SE CST
BY 2ND PART OF WKND...RESULTING IN RETURN FLO FM THE SSW (INTO MON).

SCAS RMNG UP FOR ALL WTRS THROUGH THU...EVEN THU NGT ON THE NRN OCN
WTRS. SEAS ON OCN TO BUILD TO 6-8 FT (WNET A TAD BIT LWR THAN
GUID)...WHL WVS ON BAY 3-5 FT. SEAS/WVS (SLO) TO SUBSIDE THU NGT
INTO THE WKND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMA FOR 27 AND 28 APRIL...

27 APRIL...
RIC 66/1915...CALENDAR DAY LOW AS OF THIS MORNING 67
ORF 68/1994...CALENDAR DAY LOW AS OF THIS MORNING 69

28 APRIL...
RIC 65/1935
ORF 67/1915

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>634-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BKH/AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB
CLIMATE...AKQ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
628 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ077-078-081>086-088>098-282230-
NORTHAMPTON NC-HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-INLAND CURRITUCK-
BERTIE-CHOWAN-PERQUIMANS-OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK-NORTHUMBERLAND-
LANCASTER-PRINCE GEORGE-CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-GLOUCESTER-MIDDLESEX-
MATHEWS-SUSSEX-SURRY-JAMES CITY-YORK-SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-
NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON-NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-
VIRGINIA BEACH-
628 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...INTERIOR NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...INTERIOR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...SOUTH HAMPTON ROADS
VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN NECK OF
VIRGINIA AND THE PENINSULA OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING... AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

MORE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THURSDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
IS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY
EVENING... PARTICULARLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-95...WITH DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL ONCE AGAIN AS THE MAIN THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ048-049-060>076-079-080-087-282230-
FLUVANNA-LOUISA-PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-HANOVER-CAROLINE-
MECKLENBURG-LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-
KING WILLIAM-KING AND QUEEN-ESSEX-WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-BRUNSWICK-
DINWIDDIE-GREENSVILLE-
628 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

...TORNADO WATCH 240 IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...INTERIOR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN NECK OF
VIRGINIA AND THE PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

MORE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THURSDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
IS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY
EVENING... PARTICULARLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-95...WITH DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL ONCE AGAIN AS THE MAIN THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

MDZ021>025-VAZ099-100-282230-
DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES-
ACCOMACK-NORTHAMPTON VA-
628 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING... AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

MORE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THURSDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
IS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY
EVENING... PARTICULARLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-95...WITH DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL ONCE AGAIN AS THE MAIN THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ650-652-654-282230-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO PARRAMORE ISLAND VA OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA OUT TO
20 NM-
628 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ630>634-656-658-282230-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO LITTLE CREEK VA-
CURRITUCK SOUND-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM LITTLE CREEK TO CAPE HENRY VA...INCLUDING THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY BRIDGE TUNNEL-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA TO NC VA BORDER OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT TO
20 NM-
628 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE
BAY...THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY...THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS
AND CURRITUCK SOUND.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

TG

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