Gale Warning 11, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
406 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY...WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
THEN BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY. THE
HIGH WILL THEN DRIFT OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT
DROPS INTO THE CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THEN STALLS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TORNADO WATCH 247 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT OVER WRN PTNS
OF THE FCST AREA (ERN PIEDMONT REGION). EXTRAPOLATION OF COMPOSITE
RADAR LOOPS W OF THE REGION SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL REACH THESE
WRN PTNS BTWN 4-6 AM EDT. PER SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK...SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FARTHER E LATER TODAY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. DESPITE THE MOISTENING MID/UPR LEVELS (WEAKENING LAPSE
RATES ALOFT)...MUCAPES BTWN 1500-2000 J/KG WILL NEVERTHELESS
MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT INSTBY WHEN CONSIDERING THE STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR. OVER TIME (AS THE FRONT APPROACHES) EXPECT THE SHEAR TO
BECOME MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL...THIS ALONG WITH THE BROAD SCALE
INCREASING ASCENT WILL TEND TO FAVOR MORE WDSPRD QUASI-LINEAR
CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED ROTATING CELLS (AS PER MOSAIC RADAR
IMAGERY ACROSS ERN WVA AND WRN VA). STILL...GIVEN THE LINGERING
STRONG 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR (40-60 KTS)...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE
WATCHFUL FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF
STORMS.

WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THE
FCSTS AS WELL AS THE HWO. THE TIMING IS PRIMARILY BEFORE EARLY
AFTN ALONG AND W OF I-95...AND FROM THE AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVENING
E TOWARD THE COAST. HIGHS TODAY UPR 70S/NEAR 80 W...LOW-MID 80S E
DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF INSOLATION WE SEE AHEAD OF THE MAIN
LINE OF CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE COAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
DRIER COOLER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST. LATEST MODEL TRENDS
INCLUDING LATEST SREF AND NAM) SHOW POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS LINGERING
A LITTLE WHILE LONGER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS EXPECTATIONS. THIS
MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING THE DEEP UPR TROUGH STILL W OF THE REGION...
WITH THE STRONG MID-UPR LEVEL QG FGEN UPSTREAM AND AXIS OF MAXIMUM
LLVL PETTERSON FGEN PUSHING E ACROSS THE REGION BTWN 21Z AND 03Z
(LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH EVENING). LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE
FROM NEAR 50 WEST...TO MID TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST.

A COLD POOL ALOFT DRIFTS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LINGERING
SURFACE MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS DURING
PEAK HEATING HOURS. HOWEVER...GFS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LIMITING INSTABILITY AND THE PROBABILITY
OF ANY RAIN SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID
70S FRIDAY...EVEN TO THE COAST WITH WESTERLY FLOW AFTER MORNING LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW
50S...BEFORE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...LOCALLY COOLER ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HI PRES SLOLY DRIFTS OFF THE CST SAT (AFTN)...THEN RMNS THERE
THROUGH MON. XPCTG DRY/SEASONABLE WX SAT...TEMPS A TAD HIER ON
SUN/MON AS LLVL FLO TURNS SSWLY. NEXT CDFNT SLO TO ARRIVE FM THE W
LT MON/MON NGT...THEN REACHES THE CST TUE AFTN/EVE. COOLING DN TUE
W/ CLDS/PSBL PCPN AND WNDSHFT TO NNW POST FNTL. WL HV POPS AOB 10%
THROUGH SUN NGT/MON MRNG...THEN INCRS TO HI CHC ASSOCD W/ CDFNT
ARRIVAL/PASSAGE LT MON NGT INTO TUE. DRYING OUT FOR WED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PDS OF MVFR CIGS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTY S WINDS GNLY
15-20 KT G 25-30 KT. ACTIVE WX DAY THU W/ COLD FRONT...POTENTIAL
FOR IFR IN LWR VSBYS DUE TO TSRA...MAINLY 12-17Z AT RIC...16-22Z
FARTHER EAST FOR ORF/PHF/ECG/SBY. ALTHOUGH TSTMS GNLY PUSH OFF TO
THE EAST...ANOTHER ROUND OF +SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ALL AREAS
THROUGH 00Z. GUSTY SSW/190-210 WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO SW/210-240 AFTER
18Z. WINDS DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY BY ABOUT 29/00Z AND BECOME W TO
WNW. BKN CIGS/ABOVE 3K FT MAY PERSIST.

FRI-MON...OTHER THAN SOME BKN CIGS (ABOVE 3 K FT) POSSIBLE FRI 15Z-
21Z...GNLY A QUIET PERIOD THROUGH MON AM UNDER MCLR SKIES AND LGT-MDT
WINDS. INCREASING CLOUDS/SHRA POSSIBLE LATER MON W/ APPROACH OF
NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES REMAIN IN EFFECT ALL AREAS TODAY...GNLY LOOKING AT S
WINDS 20-25G30KT (COOLER WATERS LIMITING CHC FOR GALES OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION). SEAS ON NRN CSTL WATERS 6-8 FT...5-6 FT S AND WAVES
ON THE BAY 3-5 FT. SEAS/WVS SLOW TO SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT SO HAVE
EXTENDED THE HEADLINES THROUGH FRI MRNG NRN CSTL WATERS...THRU
MIDNIGHT SRN CSTL WATERS...AND ERLY EVENG BAY/SOUND.

COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE OFF THE COAST LATER THIS EVENG...WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A COLD SURGE SO EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO
DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT ALL AREAS. WINDS LOOKING STAY 10-15 KT FROM
THE W ON FRI...WITH A MODEST COLD SURGE FROM THE NW FRI NGT (HAVE
BUMPED UP WINDS/WAVES SLIGHTLY...COULD HAVE MARGINAL SCA'S ON THE
BAY. DIMINISHING WINDS ON BY SAT...BECMG ELY SAT EVENG AND SLY SAT
NGT INTO SUN (REMAINING 10-15 KT OR LESS).

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMA FOR 27 AND 28 APRIL...

27 APRIL...
RIC 67/2011 (BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 66 IN 1915)
ORF 69/2011 (BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 68 IN 1994)

28 APRIL...
RIC 65/1935
ORF 67/1915

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ656-658.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BKH
NEAR TERM...BKH
SHORT TERM...BKH/AJZ
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB
CLIMATE...AKQ

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
925 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

VAZ048-049-060>062-068-069-281430-
AMELIA VA-CUMBERLAND VA-FLUVANNA VA-GOOCHLAND VA-LOUISA VA-POWHATAN
VA-PRINCE EDWARD VA-
925 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN VIRGINIA PIEDMONT...

AT 923 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUINEA MILLS TO 5
MILES WEST OF DARLINGTON HEIGHTS...OR FROM 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF
DILLWYN TO 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF RED HOUSE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50
MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  SCHOLFIELD AROUND 930 AM EDT...
  ANTIOCH AROUND 935 AM EDT...
  PALMYRA AROUND 940 AM EDT...
  BYBEE AROUND 945 AM EDT...
  FERNCLIFF AROUND 950 AM EDT...
  LOUISA AIRPORT AROUND 955 AM EDT...

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
EXPECTED IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS. IF YOU HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE INTO A SAFE SHELTER
BEFORE THESE STORMS REACH YOUR AREA. REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS
HAVE PASSED.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND
POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

LAT...LON 3739 7860 3734 7851 3735 7846 3765 7825
      3771 7827 3775 7845 3781 7849 3796 7820
      3801 7830 3813 7821 3815 7808 3811 7785
      3800 7769 3774 7779 3774 7782 3753 7782
      3735 7824 3712 7824 3708 7845 3721 7869

ZIMMERMAN

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>