Winter Storm Warning 20, NWS Juneau, AK

594 
WWAK47 PAJK 180618
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
918 PM AKST SAT DEC 17 2011

AKZ018-019-181430-
/X.CON.PAJK.WS.W.0020.111218T1800Z-111219T0900Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SKAGWAY...HAINES
918 PM AKST SAT DEC 17 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO
MIDNIGHT AKST SUNDAY NIGHT FOR INLAND OR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO
MIDNIGHT AKST SUNDAY NIGHT. 

* LOCATION...ALONG THE HAINES HIGHWAY NORTH OF KLUKWAN AND ALONG THE
  KLONDIKE HIGHWAY ABOVE 1000 FEET.

* SNOW...6 TO 12 INCHES BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING. THE HIGHEST 
  AMOUNTS WILL BE NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. 

* TIMING...HEAVIER SNOW WILL BEGIN FALLING LATE SUNDAY MORNING 
  AND REMAIN HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. 

* IMPACTS...DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT A WINTER STORM IS ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THIS STORM COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE DIFFICULT TO MANAGE DUE TO HIGH WATER
CONTENT ALONG THE HAINES HIGHWAY.

BLOWING SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES IN WHITE PASS.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 5 AM AKST SUNDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

410 
WWAK47 PAJK 181337
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
437 AM AKST SUN DEC 18 2011

AKZ018-019-182115-
/X.CON.PAJK.WS.W.0020.111218T1800Z-111219T0900Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SKAGWAY...HAINES
437 AM AKST SUN DEC 18 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING
TO MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR INLAND AND HIGHER ELEVATION...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING
TO MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT. 

* LOCATION...ALONG THE HAINES HIGHWAY NORTH OF KLUKWAN AND ALONG 
  THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY ABOVE 1000 FEET. 

* SNOW...4 TO 12 INCHES BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING. THE HIGHEST 
  AMOUNTS WILL BE NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. 

* TIMING...HEAVIER SNOW WILL BEGIN FALLING LATE SUNDAY MORNING 
  AND REMAIN HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. 

* IMPACTS...DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT A WINTER STORM IS ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THIS STORM COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE DIFFICULT TO MANAGE DUE TO HIGH WATER
CONTENT ALONG THE HAINES HIGHWAY.

BLOWING SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES IN WHITE PASS.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY NOON AKST SUNDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

092 
WWAK47 PAJK 182042
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1142 AM AKST SUN DEC 18 2011

AKZ018-019-190200-
/X.CON.PAJK.WS.W.0020.000000T0000Z-111219T0900Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SKAGWAY...HAINES
1142 AM AKST SUN DEC 18 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST
TONIGHT ABOVE 1000 FEET...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST
TONIGHT. 

* LOCATION...ALONG THE HAINES HIGHWAY NORTH OF KLUKWAN AND ALONG 
  THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY ABOVE 1000 FEET. 

* SNOW...4 TO 12 INCHES BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING. THE HIGHEST 
  AMOUNTS WILL BE NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. 

* TIMING...SNOW HAS BEGUN FALLING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
  EVENING. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

* IMPACTS...DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT A WINTER STORM IS ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THIS STORM COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE DIFFICULT TO MANAGE DUE TO HIGH WATER
CONTENT ALONG THE HAINES HIGHWAY.

BLOWING SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES IN WHITE PASS.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 5 PM AKST SUNDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

269 
WWAK47 PAJK 190057
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
357 PM AKST SUN DEC 18 2011

AKZ018-019-190900-
/X.CON.PAJK.WS.W.0020.000000T0000Z-111219T0900Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SKAGWAY...HAINES
357 PM AKST SUN DEC 18 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST
TONIGHT FOR INLAND AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST
TONIGHT. 

* LOCATION...ALONG THE HAINES HIGHWAY NORTH OF KLUKWAN AND ALONG 
  THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY ABOVE 1000 FEET. 

* SNOW...4 TO 12 INCHES BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING. THE HIGHEST 
  AMOUNTS WILL BE NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. 

* TIMING...SNOW HAS BEGUN FALLING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 
  SUNDAY EVENING. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH THE EARLY 
  EVENING HOURS. 

* IMPACTS...DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT A WINTER STORM IS ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THIS STORM COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE DIFFICULT TO MANAGE DUE TO HIGH WATER
CONTENT ALONG THE HAINES HIGHWAY.

BLOWING SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES IN WHITE PASS.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ029-191400-
/X.NEW.PAJK.WW.Y.0036.111219T0900Z-111220T0100Z/
MISTY FJORDS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...HYDER
357 PM AKST SUN DEC 18 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
4 PM AKST MONDAY FOR HYDER...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO 4 PM AKST MONDAY.

* LOCATION...HYDER

* SNOW...5 TO 11 INCHES 

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AROUND HYDER LATE THIS EVENING
  AND CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW BEFORE DIMINISHING AND MIXING WITH
  RAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT
  AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AN ADVISORY MEANS THAT A POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS EVENT IS ALREADY
OCCURRING OR IMMINENT.

DRIVING WILL BE HAZARDOUS.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

727 
WWAK47 PAJK 190700
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1000 PM AKST SUN DEC 18 2011

AKZ018-019-190800-
/X.CAN.PAJK.WS.W.0020.000000T0000Z-111219T0900Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SKAGWAY...HAINES
1000 PM AKST SUN DEC 18 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
STORM WARNING. 

THE HEAVIER SNOWS HAVE DIMINISHED AS THE FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH
THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES WARMED. AT 630 PM THIS EVENING...A
MOTORIST THAT PASSED THROUGH PASS ON THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY HAD 6 TO
7 INCHES. HAINES CUSTOM STATION REPORTED 5 INCHES WITH MODERATE
SNOW CONTINUING.  

HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY AND NEAR HAINES CUSTOM
STATION THAT THERE MAY BE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS ISSUANCE. 

$$

AKZ029-191500-
/X.CON.PAJK.WW.Y.0036.111219T0900Z-111220T0100Z/
MISTY FJORDS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...HYDER
1000 PM AKST SUN DEC 18 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKST
MONDAY...

* LOCATION...HYDER

* SNOW...5 TO 11 INCHES

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AROUND HYDER LATE THIS 
  EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW BEFORE DIMINISHING AND 
  MIXING WITH RAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT 
  TIMES OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. 

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AN ADVISORY MEANS THAT A POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS EVENT IS ALREADY
OCCURRING OR IMMINENT.

DRIVING WILL BE HAZARDOUS.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 6 AM AKST MONDAY MORNING OR
SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
214 PM AKST SAT DEC 17 2011

.SHORT TERM...RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN
DRIFT E OF THE AREA SUN. A STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE NE
INTO THE SW GULF TONIGHT...THEN TO THE EASTERN GULF BY SUN
AFTERNOON. USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE SHORT
TERM.

 MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE WINDS AND SNOWFALL. FOR TONIGHT THE
MOST WIND WILL BE IN LYNN CANAL...AND OVER THE FAR WESTERN AREA.
LYNN CANAL WINDS ARE NOW SCA LEVEL BUT THEY SHOULD DROP OFF TO
15-20 KT BY 00Z. THEY WILL PICK UP AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AS SW FLOW
ALOFT INCREASES ESPECIALLY AFTER MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES BY
THEM. THEY WILL CONTINUE INCREASING ON SUN...REACHING GALE FORCE
BY AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO SEE GALES DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN AREA
LATE TONIGHT...THEN SPREAD TO THE REMAINING GULF WATERS SUN.
THERE WILL BE A SMALL AREA OF STORM FORCE WINDS W OF ICY BAY SUN
AS A BARRIER JET GETS GOING. THE INNER CHANNELS OUTSIDE OF NRN
LYNN CANAL WILL PICK UP TO SCA LEVELS DURING SUN. WILL BE ISSUING
STRONG WIND HEADLINES FOR THE PAGY AREA STARTING AT 15Z SUN...AND
FOR THE PAYA/PAEL/PASI AREAS AT 18Z SUN. REMAINING INNER CHANNEL
LAND AREAS SHOULD BE JUST BELOW STRONG WIND LEVELS BY LATE SUN
AFTERNOON.

 AS FOR SNOWFALL...RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE AREA WILL
SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF SNOW BEFORE WARMER AIR MOVES IN AND CAUSES
AT LEAST RAIN TO MIX IN...IF NOT CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. AREAS THAT
COULD GET SIGNIFICANT SNOW INCLUDE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
PAHN AND PAGY ZONES. WILL BE ISSUING A WS WARNING FOR THOSE AREAS
BUT IT WILL BE MAINLY FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AWAY FROM BOTH THE
PAHN AND PAGY AREAS THEMSELVES. 850 MB FLOW BECOMES SSE SUN
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BE UPSLOPE FOR THE CHILKAT VALLEY AREA...SO
THEY SHOULD GET SOME ENHANCEMENT TO PRECIP THEN. RIGHT NOW AM
THINKING OF GOING 6-12 INCHES FOR THE PAHN ZONE ABOVE 400 FEET
AND PAGY ZONE ABOVE 1000 FEET. WILL MENTION BLOWING SNOW IN WHITE
PASS WITH TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 20S THERE. ELSEWHERE SNOW WILL
BE ON WET SIDE SO BLOWING SNOW IS MUCH LESS LIKELY. OUTSIDE THE
WARNING AREA...DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN 3 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH
MOST PLACES GETTING AN INCH OR LESS.

 OTHERWISE...WILL SEE PATCHY FOG OVER THE CENTRAL AND SRN AREA
WITH LARGE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECTED AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGHER
CLOUDS AND INCREASED WINDS TOWARD DAYBREAK SUN WILL DIMINISH THE
FOG THREAT FROM NW TO SE. WILL HAVE SNOW SHOWERS AROUND THE PAYA
AREA AS A WEAK TROF MOVES THRU THIS EVENING...THEN STEADIER
PRECIP WITH THE FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE THERE LATE TONIGHT. THIS
PRECIP SHOULD REACH THE CENTRAL COAST SUN MORNING...THEN ALL BUT
THE HYDER AREA SUN AFTERNOON. A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE NW HALF OF THE PANHANDLE WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN MAY PICK BACK UP LATE TONIGHT AND SUN MORNING AS A
WEAK MID-LEVEL TROF MOVES THRU.

 &&

 .LONG TERM...LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY AS
A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC AND BERING SEA THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS
PATTERN IS RIPE FOR THE CONTINUED PUSH OF MORE FRONTS AND LOWS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. PLUS THE CONTINUED
GENERAL SW FLOW INTO THE PANHANDLE WILL KEEP THE FLIP FLOP
BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW ON GOING THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

 FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED IS DEALING WITH THE REMAINS OF THE
STRONG FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE. STRONG WINDS WILL
STILL BE ONGOING ALONG THE OUTER COAST SUN NIGHT AND MAY BRING
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS INLAND AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE
SUN NIGHT. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT TOO WARM TO
SUPPORT SNOW FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLE EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME
NORTHER PANHANDLE. AREAS ALONG THE HAINES AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAYS
MAY SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS SUN EVENING.

 BEHIND THIS SYSTEM IS A WEAKER LOW THAT IS MAKING A BEE LINE FOR
THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE MON NIGHT. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS STARTED OUT
TRACKING THE LOW INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE OR DIXON ENTRANCE.
NOW THEY HAVE MOVED FARTHER NORTH WITH A LAND FALL SOME WHERE ON
BARANOF ISLAND LATE MON NIGHT. DECIDED TO SETTLE ON THE EC FOR
UPDATES TO THIS SYSTEM AND TRENDED TOWARD THE MORE NORTHERLY LOW
TRACK. P-TYPE MAY BE A BIT TRICKY WITH THIS ONE AS THE EASTERLY
FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW TRACK MAY BRING JUST ENOUGH
COLD AIR FOR SNOW TO FALL AT HOONAH, GUSTAVUS AND JUNEAU. MAINLY
NEAR THE LOW BEFORE INCREASING DISTANCE FROM THE LOW AND EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING FLOW NORTH OF THE LOW DIMINISH THE PRECIP. NOT TOO
MUCH WIND WITH THIS ONE AS THE HIGHEST WINDS APPEAR TO BE GALES
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW.

 FOLLOWING THIS IS A RIDGE THAT WILL GIVE US A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE
THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOWS UP FOR THURS. MODEL AGREEMENT IS STARTING
TO SHOW MORE INCONSISTENCIES. THEY ALL AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE
SOMETHING HEADING UP TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF WED NIGHT BUT THE
STRENGTH AND FRONT PLACEMENT ARE A BIT DIFFERENT MODEL TO MODEL.
GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES STARTED USING MORE HPC DATA WITH ITS
EMPHASIS ON ENSEMBLE MEANS PAST TUES NIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS AVERAGE THROUGH TUES THEN DROPS TO A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE
BEYOND TUES.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ017-022-023.
         WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT AKST SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR AKZ018-019.
         STRONG WIND FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ018.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ052.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-041>043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031>036-053.

&&

RWT/EAL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1150 AM AKST SAT DEC 17 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     SNOW             HYDER                   55.91N 130.02W
12/17/2011  M10.3 INCH                          AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            SNOW AMOUNT FOR PAST 24 HOURS.

&&

KAV