Storm Warning 89, NWS Juneau, AK

203 
FZAK52 PAJK 181246
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST SUN DEC 18 2011 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-190100-
400 AM AKST SUN DEC 18 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STRONG WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN THROUGH SE ALASKA SUN NIGHT. OUTLOOK. A LOW
WILL MOVE NE INTO THE EASTERN GULF MON NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ041-190100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST SUN DEC 18 2011 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. W SWELL IN THE MORNING. RAIN IN
THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 16 FT.
RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-190100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST SUN DEC 18 2011 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT LATE. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN
IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT LATE. SEAS 16 FT. W SWELL.
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-190100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST SUN DEC 18 2011 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT LATE. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN
IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING E LATE. SEAS 17 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 25 KT LATE. SEAS 18 FT. W
SWELL. RAIN. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-190100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST SUN DEC 18 2011 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT LATE. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN
IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 10 KT LATE. SEAS 18 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING W LATE. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-190100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST SUN DEC 18 2011 

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN
DIMINISHING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT IN
THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN IN THE
EVENING. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
RAIN...SNOW.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
214 PM AKST SAT DEC 17 2011

.SHORT TERM...RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN
DRIFT E OF THE AREA SUN. A STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE NE
INTO THE SW GULF TONIGHT...THEN TO THE EASTERN GULF BY SUN
AFTERNOON. USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE SHORT
TERM.

 MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE WINDS AND SNOWFALL. FOR TONIGHT THE
MOST WIND WILL BE IN LYNN CANAL...AND OVER THE FAR WESTERN AREA.
LYNN CANAL WINDS ARE NOW SCA LEVEL BUT THEY SHOULD DROP OFF TO
15-20 KT BY 00Z. THEY WILL PICK UP AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AS SW FLOW
ALOFT INCREASES ESPECIALLY AFTER MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES BY
THEM. THEY WILL CONTINUE INCREASING ON SUN...REACHING GALE FORCE
BY AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO SEE GALES DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN AREA
LATE TONIGHT...THEN SPREAD TO THE REMAINING GULF WATERS SUN.
THERE WILL BE A SMALL AREA OF STORM FORCE WINDS W OF ICY BAY SUN
AS A BARRIER JET GETS GOING. THE INNER CHANNELS OUTSIDE OF NRN
LYNN CANAL WILL PICK UP TO SCA LEVELS DURING SUN. WILL BE ISSUING
STRONG WIND HEADLINES FOR THE PAGY AREA STARTING AT 15Z SUN...AND
FOR THE PAYA/PAEL/PASI AREAS AT 18Z SUN. REMAINING INNER CHANNEL
LAND AREAS SHOULD BE JUST BELOW STRONG WIND LEVELS BY LATE SUN
AFTERNOON.

 AS FOR SNOWFALL...RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE AREA WILL
SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF SNOW BEFORE WARMER AIR MOVES IN AND CAUSES
AT LEAST RAIN TO MIX IN...IF NOT CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. AREAS THAT
COULD GET SIGNIFICANT SNOW INCLUDE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
PAHN AND PAGY ZONES. WILL BE ISSUING A WS WARNING FOR THOSE AREAS
BUT IT WILL BE MAINLY FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AWAY FROM BOTH THE
PAHN AND PAGY AREAS THEMSELVES. 850 MB FLOW BECOMES SSE SUN
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BE UPSLOPE FOR THE CHILKAT VALLEY AREA...SO
THEY SHOULD GET SOME ENHANCEMENT TO PRECIP THEN. RIGHT NOW AM
THINKING OF GOING 6-12 INCHES FOR THE PAHN ZONE ABOVE 400 FEET
AND PAGY ZONE ABOVE 1000 FEET. WILL MENTION BLOWING SNOW IN WHITE
PASS WITH TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 20S THERE. ELSEWHERE SNOW WILL
BE ON WET SIDE SO BLOWING SNOW IS MUCH LESS LIKELY. OUTSIDE THE
WARNING AREA...DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN 3 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH
MOST PLACES GETTING AN INCH OR LESS.

 OTHERWISE...WILL SEE PATCHY FOG OVER THE CENTRAL AND SRN AREA
WITH LARGE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECTED AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGHER
CLOUDS AND INCREASED WINDS TOWARD DAYBREAK SUN WILL DIMINISH THE
FOG THREAT FROM NW TO SE. WILL HAVE SNOW SHOWERS AROUND THE PAYA
AREA AS A WEAK TROF MOVES THRU THIS EVENING...THEN STEADIER
PRECIP WITH THE FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE THERE LATE TONIGHT. THIS
PRECIP SHOULD REACH THE CENTRAL COAST SUN MORNING...THEN ALL BUT
THE HYDER AREA SUN AFTERNOON. A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE NW HALF OF THE PANHANDLE WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN MAY PICK BACK UP LATE TONIGHT AND SUN MORNING AS A
WEAK MID-LEVEL TROF MOVES THRU.

 &&

 .LONG TERM...LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY AS
A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC AND BERING SEA THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS
PATTERN IS RIPE FOR THE CONTINUED PUSH OF MORE FRONTS AND LOWS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. PLUS THE CONTINUED
GENERAL SW FLOW INTO THE PANHANDLE WILL KEEP THE FLIP FLOP
BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW ON GOING THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

 FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED IS DEALING WITH THE REMAINS OF THE
STRONG FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE. STRONG WINDS WILL
STILL BE ONGOING ALONG THE OUTER COAST SUN NIGHT AND MAY BRING
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS INLAND AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE
SUN NIGHT. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT TOO WARM TO
SUPPORT SNOW FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLE EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME
NORTHER PANHANDLE. AREAS ALONG THE HAINES AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAYS
MAY SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS SUN EVENING.

 BEHIND THIS SYSTEM IS A WEAKER LOW THAT IS MAKING A BEE LINE FOR
THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE MON NIGHT. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS STARTED OUT
TRACKING THE LOW INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE OR DIXON ENTRANCE.
NOW THEY HAVE MOVED FARTHER NORTH WITH A LAND FALL SOME WHERE ON
BARANOF ISLAND LATE MON NIGHT. DECIDED TO SETTLE ON THE EC FOR
UPDATES TO THIS SYSTEM AND TRENDED TOWARD THE MORE NORTHERLY LOW
TRACK. P-TYPE MAY BE A BIT TRICKY WITH THIS ONE AS THE EASTERLY
FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW TRACK MAY BRING JUST ENOUGH
COLD AIR FOR SNOW TO FALL AT HOONAH, GUSTAVUS AND JUNEAU. MAINLY
NEAR THE LOW BEFORE INCREASING DISTANCE FROM THE LOW AND EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING FLOW NORTH OF THE LOW DIMINISH THE PRECIP. NOT TOO
MUCH WIND WITH THIS ONE AS THE HIGHEST WINDS APPEAR TO BE GALES
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW.

 FOLLOWING THIS IS A RIDGE THAT WILL GIVE US A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE
THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOWS UP FOR THURS. MODEL AGREEMENT IS STARTING
TO SHOW MORE INCONSISTENCIES. THEY ALL AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE
SOMETHING HEADING UP TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF WED NIGHT BUT THE
STRENGTH AND FRONT PLACEMENT ARE A BIT DIFFERENT MODEL TO MODEL.
GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES STARTED USING MORE HPC DATA WITH ITS
EMPHASIS ON ENSEMBLE MEANS PAST TUES NIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS AVERAGE THROUGH TUES THEN DROPS TO A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE
BEYOND TUES.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ017-022-023.
         WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT AKST SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR AKZ018-019.
         STRONG WIND FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ018.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ052.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-041>043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031>036-053.

&&

RWT/EAL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1150 AM AKST SAT DEC 17 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     SNOW             HYDER                   55.91N 130.02W
12/17/2011  M10.3 INCH                          AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            SNOW AMOUNT FOR PAST 24 HOURS.

&&

KAV