Small Craft Advisory 680, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
315 PM AKDT TUE NOV 1 2011

.SHORT TERM...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A 970MB LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SOUTH OF CAPE SUCKLING IS MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS
EVENING. THIS FRONT IS BRING STRONG WINDS THE AREA WITH HEAVY
RAIN. THE COMBINATION OF WINDS AND RAIN HAS CAUSED A MUDSLIDE IN
THE JUNEAU AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY EARLY THIS
EVENING FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE AS THE COLD FRONT
PASSES. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH POST FRONT AND VEER SLIGHTLY
SSW. RAINFALL WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL
AND THE OUTSIDE WATERS AREA COULD SEE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
UNDER THE COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW.

 OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE LOW CENTER WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN AND MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WILL CAUSE MID LEVEL
WINDS TO TURN OFFSHORE OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AS THE LOW
PASSES SOUTH. AS A RESULT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW 30S EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER
NORTHERN AREAS SO HAVE INCLUDED THE POTENTIAL OF SNOW MIXED IN
WITH ANY RAIN IN THE MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF
THE NORTH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE LOW SHIFTING SOUTH AND A
RIDGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE YUKON. EXPECT NORTHERLY
WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING STRONG WITH
HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH INTERIOR PASSES. SOUTHERN AREAS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE THE LIGHT SOUTHERLIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN
SHIFT IN THE EVENING.

 THE COLD AIR COMING OUT OF CANADA WILL BE MODERATED SOMEWHAT ON
WEDNESDAY BY THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT AND THE UNFROZEN GROUND.
MODELS ARE STARTING TO TREND TOWARD THIS IDEA...BUT ARE STILL ON
THE COLD SIDE. USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODELS TO UPDATE THE
GOING FORECAST...OVERALL CHANGES WERE MINOR AND FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

 &&

 .LONG TERM...EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH THE CONTINUING
FIRST COLD SNAP OF THE WINTER SEASON. THE COLD AIR IN THE
CANADIAN INTERIOR IS NOT GOING TO BE VERY STRONG, SURFACE TEMPS
AT WHITEHORSE WILL BE ABOVE ZERO DURING MOST OF IT, BUT IT WILL
BE DEEP ENOUGH TO SPARK SOME DECENT OUTFLOW WINDS OUT OF THE
VARIOUS MOUNTAIN PASSES IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. FORECAST BUFR
SOUNDINGS FOR WHITEHORSE SHOW THE INVERSION ALL THE WAY UP TO
750 MB OR ABOUT 7500 FT WED EVENING, MORE THEN ENOUGH TO HAVE
SOME OF THE COLD AIR SPILL OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AS SUCH SOME
STRONG WIND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTFLOW AREAS NEAR
YAKUTAT, ALONG LYNN CANAL, SKAGWAY, AND NEAR TAKU INLET. DOWNTOWN
JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS MAY NEED SOME STRONG WIND HEADLINES AS WELL
FOR WED NIGHT AND THURS AS THE SET UP FOR A MOUNTAIN WAVE/TAKU
WIND EVENT ARE IN THE CARDS. WEAK CRITICAL LEVEL WILL BE SITUATED
AT JUST UNDER 500 MB WED NIGHT BUT THIS WILL MAINLY BE A SPEED
MIN RATHER THEN THE SHARP WIND DIRECTION SHIFT THAT WOULD BE
IDEAL FOR TAKU WINDS. THE CROSS BARRIER FLOW AND A WEAK INVERSION
ARE ALSO PRESENT.

 WITH ALL THE OUTFLOW WINDS, SKIES WILL BE CLEARING OUT FOR WED
NIGHT INTO THURS EVENING, BUT BY FRI CLOUDS WILL BE ROLLING BACK
IN AS THE NEXT FRONT FROM THE GULF STARTS MAKING ITSELF KNOWN.
PRECIP WILL BE STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY
FRI. ENOUGH COLD AIR MAY STILL BE LINGERING AROUND IN THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE THAT THE PRECIP MAY START OUT AS
SNOW FRI MORNING BEFORE THE SOUTHERLY PUSH WARMS THINGS UP ENOUGH
TO CHANGE THE PRECIP BACK TO RAIN AT SEA LEVEL. HAINES AND
SKAGWAY MAY STAY COLD ENOUGH TO HAVE A RAIN/SNOW MIX CONTINUE.

 STRATIFORM RAIN GIVES WAY TO SHOWERS FOR SAT AND SUN BEFORE THE
NEXT FRONT SHOWS UP FOR SUN NIGHT. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES. STILL
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS. LIKED THE EC REPRESENTATION OF
THE COLD AIR FOR MID RANGE UPDATES BUT USED SOME 6Z NAM FOR SOME
OF THE OUTFLOW WINDS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ022-023-
     026.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ018-026.
         HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ027-028.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ020-021-024.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ017-019-025-029.
         STRONG WIND FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ028.
         STRONG WIND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ019.
         STRONG WIND FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR AKZ017-018.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ018.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ036.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031>035-041>043-051>053.

&&

HANNON/EAL

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