Gale Warning 385, NWS Juneau, AK

774 
FZAK51 PAJK 020544 AAB
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
940 PM AKDT TUE NOV 1 2011

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-021500-
940 PM AKDT TUE NOV 1 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A 970 MB LOW SOUTH OF CAPE SUCKLING WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY AS MOVES
TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH WED. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL EXIT
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA TUE EVENING. A COLD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WED AND THU. 

$$

PKZ011-021500-
GLACIER BAY-
940 PM AKDT TUE NOV 1 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.WED NIGHT...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-021500-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
940 PM AKDT TUE NOV 1 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT LATE.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.WED NIGHT...N GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-021500-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
940 PM AKDT TUE NOV 1 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT LATE. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.WED NIGHT...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-021500-
ICY STRAIT-
940 PM AKDT TUE NOV 1 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING LATE. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-021500-
CROSS SOUND-
940 PM AKDT TUE NOV 1 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 15 KT LATE. SEAS 16 FT
SUBSIDING TO 10 FT LATE. SW SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
8 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT.
RAIN.
.WED...E WIND BECOMING 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-021500-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
940 PM AKDT TUE NOV 1 2011

UPDATED

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING LATE. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...N WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES...GUSTS
TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF
INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-021500-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
940 PM AKDT TUE NOV 1 2011

UPDATED

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING LATE. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...N WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-021500-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
940 PM AKDT TUE NOV 1 2011

UPDATED

.REST OF TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES...SEAS 11 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-021500-
FREDERICK SOUND-
940 PM AKDT TUE NOV 1 2011

UPDATED

.REST OF TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING LATE.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ035-021500-
SUMNER STRAIT-
940 PM AKDT TUE NOV 1 2011

UPDATED

.REST OF TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES...SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...E WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT...EXCEPT 6 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-021500-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
940 PM AKDT TUE NOV 1 2011

UPDATED

.REST OF TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 11 FT
NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 7 FT
SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 2 FT OR LESS
NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
315 PM AKDT TUE NOV 1 2011

.SHORT TERM...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A 970MB LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SOUTH OF CAPE SUCKLING IS MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS
EVENING. THIS FRONT IS BRING STRONG WINDS THE AREA WITH HEAVY
RAIN. THE COMBINATION OF WINDS AND RAIN HAS CAUSED A MUDSLIDE IN
THE JUNEAU AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY EARLY THIS
EVENING FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE AS THE COLD FRONT
PASSES. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH POST FRONT AND VEER SLIGHTLY
SSW. RAINFALL WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL
AND THE OUTSIDE WATERS AREA COULD SEE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
UNDER THE COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW.

 OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE LOW CENTER WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN AND MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WILL CAUSE MID LEVEL
WINDS TO TURN OFFSHORE OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AS THE LOW
PASSES SOUTH. AS A RESULT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW 30S EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER
NORTHERN AREAS SO HAVE INCLUDED THE POTENTIAL OF SNOW MIXED IN
WITH ANY RAIN IN THE MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF
THE NORTH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE LOW SHIFTING SOUTH AND A
RIDGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE YUKON. EXPECT NORTHERLY
WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING STRONG WITH
HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH INTERIOR PASSES. SOUTHERN AREAS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE THE LIGHT SOUTHERLIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN
SHIFT IN THE EVENING.

 THE COLD AIR COMING OUT OF CANADA WILL BE MODERATED SOMEWHAT ON
WEDNESDAY BY THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT AND THE UNFROZEN GROUND.
MODELS ARE STARTING TO TREND TOWARD THIS IDEA...BUT ARE STILL ON
THE COLD SIDE. USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODELS TO UPDATE THE
GOING FORECAST...OVERALL CHANGES WERE MINOR AND FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

 &&

 .LONG TERM...EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH THE CONTINUING
FIRST COLD SNAP OF THE WINTER SEASON. THE COLD AIR IN THE
CANADIAN INTERIOR IS NOT GOING TO BE VERY STRONG, SURFACE TEMPS
AT WHITEHORSE WILL BE ABOVE ZERO DURING MOST OF IT, BUT IT WILL
BE DEEP ENOUGH TO SPARK SOME DECENT OUTFLOW WINDS OUT OF THE
VARIOUS MOUNTAIN PASSES IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. FORECAST BUFR
SOUNDINGS FOR WHITEHORSE SHOW THE INVERSION ALL THE WAY UP TO
750 MB OR ABOUT 7500 FT WED EVENING, MORE THEN ENOUGH TO HAVE
SOME OF THE COLD AIR SPILL OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AS SUCH SOME
STRONG WIND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTFLOW AREAS NEAR
YAKUTAT, ALONG LYNN CANAL, SKAGWAY, AND NEAR TAKU INLET. DOWNTOWN
JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS MAY NEED SOME STRONG WIND HEADLINES AS WELL
FOR WED NIGHT AND THURS AS THE SET UP FOR A MOUNTAIN WAVE/TAKU
WIND EVENT ARE IN THE CARDS. WEAK CRITICAL LEVEL WILL BE SITUATED
AT JUST UNDER 500 MB WED NIGHT BUT THIS WILL MAINLY BE A SPEED
MIN RATHER THEN THE SHARP WIND DIRECTION SHIFT THAT WOULD BE
IDEAL FOR TAKU WINDS. THE CROSS BARRIER FLOW AND A WEAK INVERSION
ARE ALSO PRESENT.

 WITH ALL THE OUTFLOW WINDS, SKIES WILL BE CLEARING OUT FOR WED
NIGHT INTO THURS EVENING, BUT BY FRI CLOUDS WILL BE ROLLING BACK
IN AS THE NEXT FRONT FROM THE GULF STARTS MAKING ITSELF KNOWN.
PRECIP WILL BE STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY
FRI. ENOUGH COLD AIR MAY STILL BE LINGERING AROUND IN THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE THAT THE PRECIP MAY START OUT AS
SNOW FRI MORNING BEFORE THE SOUTHERLY PUSH WARMS THINGS UP ENOUGH
TO CHANGE THE PRECIP BACK TO RAIN AT SEA LEVEL. HAINES AND
SKAGWAY MAY STAY COLD ENOUGH TO HAVE A RAIN/SNOW MIX CONTINUE.

 STRATIFORM RAIN GIVES WAY TO SHOWERS FOR SAT AND SUN BEFORE THE
NEXT FRONT SHOWS UP FOR SUN NIGHT. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES. STILL
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS. LIKED THE EC REPRESENTATION OF
THE COLD AIR FOR MID RANGE UPDATES BUT USED SOME 6Z NAM FOR SOME
OF THE OUTFLOW WINDS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ022-023-
     026.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ018-026.
         HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ027-028.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ020-021-024.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ017-019-025-029.
         STRONG WIND FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ028.
         STRONG WIND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ019.
         STRONG WIND FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR AKZ017-018.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ018.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ036.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031>035-041>043-051>053.

&&

HANNON/EAL