Gale Warning 384, NWS Juneau, AK

156 
FZAK52 PAJK 020622 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1021 PM AKDT TUE NOV 1 2011

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-021500-
1021 PM AKDT TUE NOV 1 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A 970 MB LOW SOUTH OF CAPE SUCKLING WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY AS MOVES
TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH WED. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL EXIT
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA TUE EVENING. A COLD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WED AND THU. 

$$

PKZ041-021500-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
1021 PM AKDT TUE NOV 1 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. W SWELL. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT SUBSIDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. W SWELL. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. W SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-021500-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1021 PM AKDT TUE NOV 1 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. W SWELL. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. W SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-021500-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1021 PM AKDT TUE NOV 1 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 
.WED...SE WIND BECOMING 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. OUT OF
CROSS SOUND...GUSTS TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT
SUBSIDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF CROSS
SOUND. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-021500-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
1021 PM AKDT TUE NOV 1 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 
.WED...E WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING TO
16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.WED NIGHT...NE GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF
INTERIOR BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-021500-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
1021 PM AKDT TUE NOV 1 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. S SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 

$$

093 
FZAK52 PAJK 021144
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT WED NOV 2 2011 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-030100-
400 AM AKDT WED NOV 2 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A 985 MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
DRIFT SE INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC BY WED. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL EXIT INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA TUE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE 
BUILDING OVER THE YUKON WED WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THU OVER
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. 

$$

PKZ041-030100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKDT WED NOV 2 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT
SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT. W SWELL. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. W SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-030100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKDT WED NOV 2 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT
SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. W SWELL. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. W SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-030100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKDT WED NOV 2 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E THE AFTERNOON. OUT OF CROSS
SOUND...GUSTS TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO 14
FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS
12 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT LATE. 
.THU...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND.
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-030100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKDT WED NOV 2 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO
12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-030100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKDT WED NOV 2 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SW SWELL BECOMING S IN
THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL. 
.THU...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. S SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
315 PM AKDT TUE NOV 1 2011

.SHORT TERM...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A 970MB LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SOUTH OF CAPE SUCKLING IS MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS
EVENING. THIS FRONT IS BRING STRONG WINDS THE AREA WITH HEAVY
RAIN. THE COMBINATION OF WINDS AND RAIN HAS CAUSED A MUDSLIDE IN
THE JUNEAU AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY EARLY THIS
EVENING FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE AS THE COLD FRONT
PASSES. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH POST FRONT AND VEER SLIGHTLY
SSW. RAINFALL WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL
AND THE OUTSIDE WATERS AREA COULD SEE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
UNDER THE COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW.

 OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE LOW CENTER WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN AND MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WILL CAUSE MID LEVEL
WINDS TO TURN OFFSHORE OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AS THE LOW
PASSES SOUTH. AS A RESULT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW 30S EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER
NORTHERN AREAS SO HAVE INCLUDED THE POTENTIAL OF SNOW MIXED IN
WITH ANY RAIN IN THE MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF
THE NORTH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE LOW SHIFTING SOUTH AND A
RIDGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE YUKON. EXPECT NORTHERLY
WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING STRONG WITH
HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH INTERIOR PASSES. SOUTHERN AREAS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE THE LIGHT SOUTHERLIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN
SHIFT IN THE EVENING.

 THE COLD AIR COMING OUT OF CANADA WILL BE MODERATED SOMEWHAT ON
WEDNESDAY BY THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT AND THE UNFROZEN GROUND.
MODELS ARE STARTING TO TREND TOWARD THIS IDEA...BUT ARE STILL ON
THE COLD SIDE. USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODELS TO UPDATE THE
GOING FORECAST...OVERALL CHANGES WERE MINOR AND FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

 &&

 .LONG TERM...EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH THE CONTINUING
FIRST COLD SNAP OF THE WINTER SEASON. THE COLD AIR IN THE
CANADIAN INTERIOR IS NOT GOING TO BE VERY STRONG, SURFACE TEMPS
AT WHITEHORSE WILL BE ABOVE ZERO DURING MOST OF IT, BUT IT WILL
BE DEEP ENOUGH TO SPARK SOME DECENT OUTFLOW WINDS OUT OF THE
VARIOUS MOUNTAIN PASSES IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. FORECAST BUFR
SOUNDINGS FOR WHITEHORSE SHOW THE INVERSION ALL THE WAY UP TO
750 MB OR ABOUT 7500 FT WED EVENING, MORE THEN ENOUGH TO HAVE
SOME OF THE COLD AIR SPILL OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AS SUCH SOME
STRONG WIND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTFLOW AREAS NEAR
YAKUTAT, ALONG LYNN CANAL, SKAGWAY, AND NEAR TAKU INLET. DOWNTOWN
JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS MAY NEED SOME STRONG WIND HEADLINES AS WELL
FOR WED NIGHT AND THURS AS THE SET UP FOR A MOUNTAIN WAVE/TAKU
WIND EVENT ARE IN THE CARDS. WEAK CRITICAL LEVEL WILL BE SITUATED
AT JUST UNDER 500 MB WED NIGHT BUT THIS WILL MAINLY BE A SPEED
MIN RATHER THEN THE SHARP WIND DIRECTION SHIFT THAT WOULD BE
IDEAL FOR TAKU WINDS. THE CROSS BARRIER FLOW AND A WEAK INVERSION
ARE ALSO PRESENT.

 WITH ALL THE OUTFLOW WINDS, SKIES WILL BE CLEARING OUT FOR WED
NIGHT INTO THURS EVENING, BUT BY FRI CLOUDS WILL BE ROLLING BACK
IN AS THE NEXT FRONT FROM THE GULF STARTS MAKING ITSELF KNOWN.
PRECIP WILL BE STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY
FRI. ENOUGH COLD AIR MAY STILL BE LINGERING AROUND IN THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE THAT THE PRECIP MAY START OUT AS
SNOW FRI MORNING BEFORE THE SOUTHERLY PUSH WARMS THINGS UP ENOUGH
TO CHANGE THE PRECIP BACK TO RAIN AT SEA LEVEL. HAINES AND
SKAGWAY MAY STAY COLD ENOUGH TO HAVE A RAIN/SNOW MIX CONTINUE.

 STRATIFORM RAIN GIVES WAY TO SHOWERS FOR SAT AND SUN BEFORE THE
NEXT FRONT SHOWS UP FOR SUN NIGHT. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES. STILL
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS. LIKED THE EC REPRESENTATION OF
THE COLD AIR FOR MID RANGE UPDATES BUT USED SOME 6Z NAM FOR SOME
OF THE OUTFLOW WINDS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ022-023-
     026.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ018-026.
         HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ027-028.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ020-021-024.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ017-019-025-029.
         STRONG WIND FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ028.
         STRONG WIND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ019.
         STRONG WIND FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR AKZ017-018.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ018.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ036.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031>035-041>043-051>053.

&&

HANNON/EAL