High Wind Watch 9, NWS Juneau, AK

104 
WWAK77 PAJK 212058
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1158 AM AKST WED DEC 21 2011

AKZ023-027-028-220500-
/X.CON.PAJK.HW.A.0009.111222T1500Z-111223T0600Z/
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...CRAIG...
KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA
1158 AM AKST WED DEC 21 2011

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

* WIND...SOUTHEAST WIND 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH ARE 
  POSSIBLE. 

* TIMING...STRONGEST WIND GUSTS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...HIGH WINDS COULD DOWN TREES AND KNOCK OUT POWER 
  LINES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...BE PREPARED FOR THE
POTENTIAL LOSS OF POWER. SECURE BOATS...AIRCRAFTS...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS THAT CAN BE BLOWN AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND. PERSONS
NEAR STEEP SLOPES SHOULD STAY ALERT FOR CHANGING CONDITIONS.

A WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
HIGH WINDS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 6 PM AKST WEDNESDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

449 
WWAK77 PAJK 220246
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
546 PM AKST WED DEC 21 2011

AKZ023-027-028-221400-
/X.UPG.PAJK.HW.A.0009.111222T1500Z-111223T0600Z/
/X.NEW.PAJK.HW.W.0014.111222T1200Z-111223T0600Z/
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...CRAIG...
KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA
546 PM AKST WED DEC 21 2011

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM AKST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM AKST THURSDAY. THE
HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* WIND...SOUTHEAST TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH OR MORE
  BEGINNING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

* TIMING...STRONGEST WIND GUSTS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...HIGH WINDS COULD DOWN TREES AND KNOCK OUT POWER 
  LINES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT HIGH WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THESE WINDS COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 5 AM AKST THURSDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

RWT

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
345 PM AKST TUE DEC 20 2011

.SHORT TERM...A RIDGE AT SURFACE AND ALOFT...WILL BUILD OVER
SOUTHEAST ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE ESE
INTO B.C. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A 978 MB LOW IN BRISTOL BAY WILL
SEND A MODERATE OCCLUDED FRONT INTO THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT AND
THEN WEAKEN IT OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA WEDNESDAY.

WESTERLY WINDS CURRENTLY DIMINISHING ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA THIS
AFTERNOON. BOTH CSP AND CDE HAVE FALLEN TO A MIN SMCR AND EXPECTED
TO GO BELOW SMCR THIS EVENING. AS RIDGE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALASKA TONIGHT WILL START TO SEE A SLY GRADIENT BUILD IN LYNN
CANAL THAT REACHES A GALE AND STRONG WIND FOR PAGY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. AN EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL DEVELOP IN E-W CHANNELS BY
MORNING. SE WIND INCREASE THROUGH THE INNER CHANNELS WEDNESDAY
GOING TO SMCR BY AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS...A FEW MIXED WITH SNOW OR PELLETS THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. ATMO STABILIZES UNDER
RIDGE LATER TONIGHT. CAA FROM THE WEST CONTINUES TONIGHT AND
EXPECT ISOLD RA SHWRS TO BECOME ISOLD SNOW SHWRS BY MORNING.
LEADING EDGE OF WARM SECTOR SPREADS OVER PAYA WED MORNING AND TO
PAJN ARE BY LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS TO START AS ALL SNOW FOR
NORTHERN THIRD OF SE AK BUT WILL GO TO RAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST BY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP SOUTHERN ZONES DRY ON WED BUT WILL
KEEP CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG IN COOL, STABLE, AND MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER. TEMPS FALLING TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT TO MID
TEENS ALONG THE HAINES HIGHWAY. HIGH TEMPS ON WED PROBABLY A
DEGREE OR 2 LOWER THAN TODAY WITH MANY LOCALS BARELY GOING ABOVE
FREEZING IN AFTERNOON.

MODELS WERE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND USED
GFS NAM BLEND FOR PRES AND WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL
SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE FORECAST. A GALE
TO STORM FORCE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF WED NIGHT AND THURS.
THIS WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS
ALONG WITH RAIN BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH THURS NIGHT.
NORTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN THURS
MORNING...HOWEVER STRONG SOUTHERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP ANY
ACCUMULATIONS TO A MINIMUM AND QUICKLY CHANGE TO ALL RAIN. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DEPART FRIDAY FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY ANOTHER LOW MOVING
INTO THE GULF. THERE MAY BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
BETWEEN SYSTEMS...BUT HAVE KEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
FORECAST. THE SECOND LOW WILL INCREASE WINDS OVER THE OUTSIDE WATERS
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 20FT SATURDAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM 850MB
TEMPS DROP...ALLOWING FOR RAIN TO MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE SOUTH AND
CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH FOR CHRISTMAS EVE INTO THE
HOLIDAY.

LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE ANOTHER LOW FOLLOWING A SIMILAR PATH FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...PLACEMENT OF EACH OF THESE LOWS
HAS VARIED FROM RUN TO RUN...WHICH GREATLY CHANGES WIND DIRECTIONS,
TEMPERATURES AND THE QUESTION OF RAIN VS SNOW...KEEPING FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE. LATEST RUNS HAVE SHIFTED THE THURSDAY
LOW SLIGHTLY MORE OFFSHORE THEN MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA...KEEPING
MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER THAT WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR AKZ018.
         STRONG WIND FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     AKZ017.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-041-051>053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031>036-042-043.

&&

MM/HANNON