Gale Warning 467, NWS Juneau, AK

935 
FZAK67 PAJK 211343
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST WED DEC 21 2011 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-220100-
400 AM AKST WED DEC 21 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THEN WEAKEN OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A STORM FORCE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  

$$

PKZ310-220100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKST WED DEC 21 2011 

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE LATE. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE LATE. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SHOWERS.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
345 PM AKST TUE DEC 20 2011

.SHORT TERM...A RIDGE AT SURFACE AND ALOFT...WILL BUILD OVER
SOUTHEAST ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE ESE
INTO B.C. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A 978 MB LOW IN BRISTOL BAY WILL
SEND A MODERATE OCCLUDED FRONT INTO THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT AND
THEN WEAKEN IT OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA WEDNESDAY.

WESTERLY WINDS CURRENTLY DIMINISHING ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA THIS
AFTERNOON. BOTH CSP AND CDE HAVE FALLEN TO A MIN SMCR AND EXPECTED
TO GO BELOW SMCR THIS EVENING. AS RIDGE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALASKA TONIGHT WILL START TO SEE A SLY GRADIENT BUILD IN LYNN
CANAL THAT REACHES A GALE AND STRONG WIND FOR PAGY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. AN EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL DEVELOP IN E-W CHANNELS BY
MORNING. SE WIND INCREASE THROUGH THE INNER CHANNELS WEDNESDAY
GOING TO SMCR BY AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS...A FEW MIXED WITH SNOW OR PELLETS THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. ATMO STABILIZES UNDER
RIDGE LATER TONIGHT. CAA FROM THE WEST CONTINUES TONIGHT AND
EXPECT ISOLD RA SHWRS TO BECOME ISOLD SNOW SHWRS BY MORNING.
LEADING EDGE OF WARM SECTOR SPREADS OVER PAYA WED MORNING AND TO
PAJN ARE BY LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS TO START AS ALL SNOW FOR
NORTHERN THIRD OF SE AK BUT WILL GO TO RAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST BY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP SOUTHERN ZONES DRY ON WED BUT WILL
KEEP CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG IN COOL, STABLE, AND MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER. TEMPS FALLING TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT TO MID
TEENS ALONG THE HAINES HIGHWAY. HIGH TEMPS ON WED PROBABLY A
DEGREE OR 2 LOWER THAN TODAY WITH MANY LOCALS BARELY GOING ABOVE
FREEZING IN AFTERNOON.

MODELS WERE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND USED
GFS NAM BLEND FOR PRES AND WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL
SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE FORECAST. A GALE
TO STORM FORCE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF WED NIGHT AND THURS.
THIS WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS
ALONG WITH RAIN BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH THURS NIGHT.
NORTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN THURS
MORNING...HOWEVER STRONG SOUTHERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP ANY
ACCUMULATIONS TO A MINIMUM AND QUICKLY CHANGE TO ALL RAIN. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DEPART FRIDAY FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY ANOTHER LOW MOVING
INTO THE GULF. THERE MAY BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
BETWEEN SYSTEMS...BUT HAVE KEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
FORECAST. THE SECOND LOW WILL INCREASE WINDS OVER THE OUTSIDE WATERS
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 20FT SATURDAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM 850MB
TEMPS DROP...ALLOWING FOR RAIN TO MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE SOUTH AND
CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH FOR CHRISTMAS EVE INTO THE
HOLIDAY.

LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE ANOTHER LOW FOLLOWING A SIMILAR PATH FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...PLACEMENT OF EACH OF THESE LOWS
HAS VARIED FROM RUN TO RUN...WHICH GREATLY CHANGES WIND DIRECTIONS,
TEMPERATURES AND THE QUESTION OF RAIN VS SNOW...KEEPING FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE. LATEST RUNS HAVE SHIFTED THE THURSDAY
LOW SLIGHTLY MORE OFFSHORE THEN MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA...KEEPING
MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER THAT WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR AKZ018.
         STRONG WIND FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     AKZ017.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-041-051>053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031>036-042-043.

&&

MM/HANNON