Gale Warning 522, NWS Juneau, AK

406 
FZAK52 PAJK 212130 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1230 PM AKST WED DEC 21 2011

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-220100-
1230 PM AKST WED DEC 21 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THEN WEAKEN OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A STORM FORCE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  

$$

PKZ041-220100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
1230 PM AKST WED DEC 21 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT IN THE LATE EVENING
THEN DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-220100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1230 PM AKST WED DEC 21 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 19 FT.
RAIN.
.THU...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT IN THE LATE EVENING
THEN DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ043-220100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1230 PM AKST WED DEC 21 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 18 FT.
RAIN.
.THU...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE LATE
EVENING. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-220100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
1230 PM AKST WED DEC 21 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
RAIN.
.THU...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW LATE. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-220100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
1230 PM AKST WED DEC 21 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 16 FT
SUBSIDING TO 14 FT LATE. SW SWELL IN THE EVENING. RAIN LATE. 
.THU...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW LATE . SEAS 17 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
345 PM AKST TUE DEC 20 2011

.SHORT TERM...A RIDGE AT SURFACE AND ALOFT...WILL BUILD OVER
SOUTHEAST ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE ESE
INTO B.C. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A 978 MB LOW IN BRISTOL BAY WILL
SEND A MODERATE OCCLUDED FRONT INTO THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT AND
THEN WEAKEN IT OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA WEDNESDAY.

WESTERLY WINDS CURRENTLY DIMINISHING ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA THIS
AFTERNOON. BOTH CSP AND CDE HAVE FALLEN TO A MIN SMCR AND EXPECTED
TO GO BELOW SMCR THIS EVENING. AS RIDGE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALASKA TONIGHT WILL START TO SEE A SLY GRADIENT BUILD IN LYNN
CANAL THAT REACHES A GALE AND STRONG WIND FOR PAGY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. AN EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL DEVELOP IN E-W CHANNELS BY
MORNING. SE WIND INCREASE THROUGH THE INNER CHANNELS WEDNESDAY
GOING TO SMCR BY AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS...A FEW MIXED WITH SNOW OR PELLETS THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. ATMO STABILIZES UNDER
RIDGE LATER TONIGHT. CAA FROM THE WEST CONTINUES TONIGHT AND
EXPECT ISOLD RA SHWRS TO BECOME ISOLD SNOW SHWRS BY MORNING.
LEADING EDGE OF WARM SECTOR SPREADS OVER PAYA WED MORNING AND TO
PAJN ARE BY LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS TO START AS ALL SNOW FOR
NORTHERN THIRD OF SE AK BUT WILL GO TO RAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST BY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP SOUTHERN ZONES DRY ON WED BUT WILL
KEEP CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG IN COOL, STABLE, AND MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER. TEMPS FALLING TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT TO MID
TEENS ALONG THE HAINES HIGHWAY. HIGH TEMPS ON WED PROBABLY A
DEGREE OR 2 LOWER THAN TODAY WITH MANY LOCALS BARELY GOING ABOVE
FREEZING IN AFTERNOON.

MODELS WERE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND USED
GFS NAM BLEND FOR PRES AND WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL
SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE FORECAST. A GALE
TO STORM FORCE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF WED NIGHT AND THURS.
THIS WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS
ALONG WITH RAIN BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH THURS NIGHT.
NORTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN THURS
MORNING...HOWEVER STRONG SOUTHERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP ANY
ACCUMULATIONS TO A MINIMUM AND QUICKLY CHANGE TO ALL RAIN. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DEPART FRIDAY FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY ANOTHER LOW MOVING
INTO THE GULF. THERE MAY BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
BETWEEN SYSTEMS...BUT HAVE KEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
FORECAST. THE SECOND LOW WILL INCREASE WINDS OVER THE OUTSIDE WATERS
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 20FT SATURDAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM 850MB
TEMPS DROP...ALLOWING FOR RAIN TO MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE SOUTH AND
CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH FOR CHRISTMAS EVE INTO THE
HOLIDAY.

LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE ANOTHER LOW FOLLOWING A SIMILAR PATH FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...PLACEMENT OF EACH OF THESE LOWS
HAS VARIED FROM RUN TO RUN...WHICH GREATLY CHANGES WIND DIRECTIONS,
TEMPERATURES AND THE QUESTION OF RAIN VS SNOW...KEEPING FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE. LATEST RUNS HAVE SHIFTED THE THURSDAY
LOW SLIGHTLY MORE OFFSHORE THEN MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA...KEEPING
MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER THAT WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR AKZ018.
         STRONG WIND FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     AKZ017.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-041-051>053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031>036-042-043.

&&

MM/HANNON