High Wind Watch 6, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
613 AM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011

.SHORT TERM...RESIDUAL TROUGH FROM A FILLING LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. SHOWERS WITH
THE THROUGH ARE LOCALLY HEAVY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWERS ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF HEADED TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE. STRONG GALE FORCE
WINDS OVER THE GULF WILL CONTINUE INTO THOUGH TONIGHT AND
DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN
GULF AND PANHANDLE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM HEADED INTO THE
WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA....PARENT LOW OF THE FRONT WEST OF SAINT
PAUL ISLAND...A NEW WEAKER LOW WILL DEVELOP EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND
AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WITH THE FRONTAL
BAND EXTENDING WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
DEPENDING ON THE MODEL SOLUTIONS 35 TO 50 KTS OF WINDS OVER THE
GULF. THIS FRONTAL BAND HAD A MID TROPIC MOISTURE SOURCE MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE SPREADING BACK INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

 SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE SOME COLD ENOUGH AIR
SPILLING OUT OF THE INTERIOR THAT A THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
SNOW MIXED IN OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND PERHAPS FAR
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AREA OVER THE INLAND VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...A VERY STRONG DEVELOPING LOW WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
NORTH PACIFIC AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH TUE WITH A STORM
FORCE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND SE AK. WINDS ACROSS
THE GULF WILL INCREASE TO STORMS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 20-26 FT
THROUGH TUE WITH STRONG WINDS AND GALES OVER THE INNER CHANNELS.
ISSUES A HIGH WINDS WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS A VERY STRONG LLJ OF 80 KT AND GOOD JET DYNAMICS. GUSTS TO
60+MPH ARE POSSIBLE FROM MID TUE MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUE
EVENING. OVER THE INNER CHANNELS THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SOLID
GALES OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH STORM FORCE WINDS OVER CLARENCE STRAIT. AS
THE FRONT LIFTS OVER THE AREA LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS PERSISTING OVER THE
COASTAL AREAS AND OVER THE GULF. THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SPLIT
WITH A LEE SIDE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE YUKON AND A RESIDUAL LOW
REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TUE NIGHT.

RAIN WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH TUES WITH SOME SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE CONNECTION. THE HEAVY PRECIP WILL TAPPER OFF AS THE FRONT
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BUT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO TUE NIGHT.
THERE IS SOME COLD AIR AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND WITH THE
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF PRECIP THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE KLONDIKE
HIGHWAY MAY SEE 3 TO 6 INCHES THROUGH TUE WITH POSSIBLE HIGHER
AMOUNTS THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.

THE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND BEING TO
DRIFT SE THROUGH WED AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDES SE AND A UPPER
HIGH BUILDS OVER THE GULF THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THIS HIGH DRIFTS
OVER THE GULF A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER INTERIOR OF THE STATE
AND DRIFT SE OVER THE YUKON THROUGH WED AND INTO BC BY THURSDAY.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH STRONG WINDS AND GALES OVER N/S CHANNELS.
ALSO THERE WILL BE STRONG GUSTS FROM INTERIOR PASS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF ALONG THROUGH WED. WITH THE INCREASING OFFSHORE
FLOW THE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SE AK WILL DIMINISH THROUGH WED
AND CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THAT NIGHT. LARGER BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF CAA ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL
INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S WED NIGHT WITH ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ON THURSDAY.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY BUT THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL DRIFT OVER THE PANHANDLE AND BY THURSDAY NIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
INCREASE AND START TO ADVECT CLOUDS AS THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES.
THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
AS THE NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF BUT IT WOULD NOT
LAST LONG WITH WAA ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEATHER FRONT.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW ON TUE AND WITH THE
COLD AIR OUTBREAK WED NIGHT/THURSDAY ALONG WITH THE LOW MOVING
INTO THE GULF FRIDAY. SO WITH THAT SAID THERE IS ABOVE AVERAGE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THEN ABOUT AVERAGE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/UKMET THROUGH TUE NIGHT
THEN MAINLY THE GFS THROUGH FRI. DID NOT CHANGE THE FORECAST OVER
THE WEEKEND AS THERE HAS NOT BEEN THAT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR AKZ023-026-027.
         HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     AKZ028.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ042-043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-021-022-031>036-041-053.

&&

MM/ABJ