Gale Warning 366, NWS Juneau, AK

712 
FZAK52 PAJK 312015 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1215 PM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-010100-
1215 PM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STRONG WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA MONDAY NIGHT. A DEVELOPING
LOW ALONG THE TRAILING FRONT IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN GULF TUESDAY. A
VERY STRONG WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF TUE.  

$$

PKZ041-010100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
1215 PM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. W SWELL. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING
TO 13 FT LATE. W SWELL IN THE EVENING. RAIN LATE. 
.TUE...S STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT DEVELOPING THROUGH THE MORNING.
SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT IN THE LATE MORNING. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. W SWELL. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-010100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1215 PM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. W SWELL.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING
TO 14 FT LATE. RAIN LATE.
.TUE...S STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT DEVELOPING THROUGH THE MORNING.
SEAS 14 FT BUILDING TO 24 FT IN THE MORNING. SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. W SWELL. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-010100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1215 PM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT DEVELOPING THROUGH THE MORNING.
SEAS 16 FT BUILDING TO 25 FT IN THE MORNING. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW GALE TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE LATE
EVENING. SEAS 25 FT. 
.WED...NE GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND.
SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-010100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
1215 PM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT DEVELOPING THROUGH THE MORNING.
SEAS 17 FT BUILDING TO 25 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...SW STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN
THE LATE EVENING. SEAS 25 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES
BECOMING SE 30 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-010100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
1215 PM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 16 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING GALE 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16
FT BUILDING TO 21 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...W STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT LATE.
SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. S SWELL. 
.THU...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...E GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

113 
FZAK52 PAJK 312331
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-011400-
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STRONG WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF MONDAY
EVENING AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA MONDAY NIGHT. A DEVELOPING
LOW ALONG THE TRAILING FRONT IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN GULF TUESDAY. A
VERY STRONG WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF TUE.  

$$

PKZ041-011400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011 

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT. S SWELL. 
.TUE...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT BUILDING TO 23 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. S SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. W SWELL. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 17 FT. W SWELL. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. W SWELL. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-011400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011 

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 16 FT. S SWELL.
RAIN LATE. 
.TUE...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT BUILDING TO 24 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. S SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. W SWELL. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-011400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011 

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT. S SWELL.
RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT BUILDING TO 26 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. S SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND.
SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF CROSS
SOUND. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-011400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011 

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 18 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT
BUILDING TO 25 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. S SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS
AND PASSES. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-011400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 17 FT.
S SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT
BUILDING TO 24 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. S SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
411 PM AKDT SUN OCT 30 2011

.SHORT TERM...RESIDUAL TROUGH FROM A FILLING LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. SHOWERS WITH
THE THROUGH ARE LOCALLY HEAVY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWERS ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF HEADED TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE. STRONG GALE FORCE
WINDS OVER THE GULF WILL CONTINUE INTO THOUGH TONIGHT AND
DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN
GULF AND PANHANDLE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM HEADED INTO THE
WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA....PARENT LOW OF THE FRONT WEST OF SAINT
PAUL ISLAND...A NEW WEAKER LOW WILL DEVELOP EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND
AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WITH THE FRONTAL
BAND EXTENDING WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
DEPENDING ON THE MODEL SOLUTIONS 35 TO 50 KTS OF WINDS OVER THE
GULF. THIS FRONTAL BAND HAD A MID TROPIC MOISTURE SOURCE MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE SPREADING BACK INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

 SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE SOME COLD ENOUGH AIR
SPILLING OUT OF THE INTERIOR THAT A THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
SNOW MIXED IN OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND PERHAPS FAR
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AREA OVER THE INLAND VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE EXTENDED FORECAST
STARTS OFF WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PANHANDLE AND A
LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF. THE RIDGE WILL CAUSE STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH N-S ORIENTED CHANNELS...BECOMING WINDY IN SKAGWAY
AND GALES THROUGH LYNN CANAL. THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES STARTING
IN YAKUTAT MONDAY NIGHT AND INCREASING OVER THE REMAINING PANHANDLE
TUESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE
TUESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT AS A LOW LEVEL JET IS ORIENTED ALONG
IT AND GUSTY WINDS WILL MIX DOWN WITH THE RAIN.

AFTER THE FRONT PASSES TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM
OFF THE YAKUTAT AREA...THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO DECREASE THEN
SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH ONCE THE LOW PASSES SOUTH. RAIN WILL BECOME
MORE SCATTERED AND TURN TO SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE
LOW MOVES TO THE SOUTH A HIGH WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH CAUSING A
COLD NORTH WIND OUT OF CANADA. A MID LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AS THE LOW PASSES CREATING A DRYING AFFECT...THIS WILL
DIMINISH ANY REMAINING SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS TO THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MUCH
COLDER OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

ON FRIDAY THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING WITH RAIN REACHING
THE COASTAL AREAS FRIDAY MORNING. DUE TO MORNING TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S SOME AREAS WILL SEE RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW.

MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND TIMING OF WHEN IT MOVES
TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. USED A BLEND OF
MODELS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE SREF AND 06Z
GFS AND MANUALLY TWEAKED THE LOW PLACEMENT TO GET A SMOOTH
TRANSITION SOUTHWARD. THE ULTIMATE LOCATION OF THE LOW CENTER WILL
DETERMINE TIMING OF WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. AS A RESULT
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS TIME-FRAME IS BELOW AVERAGE.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE STRONG
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODELS
COME BACK INTO AGREEMENT FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD AND USED A BLEND OF
THE ECMWF AND GFS FOR PRESSURE AND MAINLY THE GFS FOR OTHER
FIELDS. MODELS ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE COLD AIR
OUTBREAK WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND COULD EVEN
BE COLDER THAN IN THIS PACKAGE...WILL MONITOR AND DECREASE AS IT
GETS CLOSER.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-022-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-031>036.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ053.

&&

BEZENEK/HANNON