Gale Warning 544, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
548 AM AKST MON DEC 26 2011

.SHORT TERM...A COMPLEX 975 MB LOW NEAR 55/143 IS FORECAST TO
DEEPEN TO 960 MB AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST GULF THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN MOVE ONSHORE WEST OF PAYA AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. LEAD
OCCLUDED FRONT IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND WILL
WARP NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON. A
FAIRLY STRONG SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS QUICKLY CATCHING UP TO THE
LEAD OCCLUSION AND WILL PUSH THROUGH SOUTHEAST ALASKA THIS EVENING.

EXPECT VERY STRONG WIND ALONG THE COAST TODAY AS 80 KT BARRIER JET
DEVELOPS AS FRONT APPROACHES. EXPECT STORM FORCE WIND IN COASTAL
WATERS TODAY THAT DROP OFF AND SHIFT A BIT TO THE SOUTH WITH
AFTERNOON. HWW IS IN EFFECT THOUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 22,
23, AND 28. THERE IS A SECOND WRAP WITH SW STORMS THAT MOVE INTO
THE NE GULF THIS EVENING. GALES AND A STRONG NE-SE WIND GUSTS
EXPECTED THROUGH INNER CHANNELS TODAY THAT GO TO SOUTH AND
DIMINISH TONIGHT. WINDS IN NORTHERN AREAS STARTING THE DAY OUT
SOUTHERLY BUT EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE TO SOLID
SMCR BY THIS AFTERNOON.

HAVE SOME COLD AIR IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA. PRECIP WILL
START OUT AS SNOW MOST AREA BUT WILL GO TO ALL RAIN FOR SOUTHERN
AND COASTAL AREAS BY MID MORNING. NE WIND MAY BRING IN SOME
RE-ENFORCING COLD AIR TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE SO PRECIP
HERE WILL BE MAINLY SNOW. WILL KEEP WWY FOR PAHN AND PAGY AREAS
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH HIGHEST SNOWFALL NEAR PASSES. THERE
WILL BE SOME DOWN SLOPE WARMING TO DEAL WITH EARLIER MONDAY THAT
COULD PUSH HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 30S BUT WITH LOW DEW POINTS EXPECT
TEMPS TO DROP WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP. ONCE SECONDARY COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH AND STRONG CAA IN WESTERLY FLOW BEGINS ALL AREAS GO
SNOW.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH SHORT TERM WITH NAM MAIN
OUTLIER. THE NAM IS TAKING MAIN LOW CENTER MUCH CLOSER TO PAYA
WHILE EC AND GFS ARE FARTHER WEST. THIS IS AN IMPORTANT
DIFFERENCES WITH POTENTIAL FOR STORM SURGE AT HIGH TIDE TONIGHT.
USED A BLEND OF GFS AND EC FOR PRES AND WIND WHICH RESULTED IN A
TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH PAYA THIS EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM...A QUICK RIDGE PUSHES THROUGH REMNANTS OF THE LATEST
FRONTAL FEATURE OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVE OUT
OF THE NORTH PACIFIC AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF. A COUPLE OF
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM BUT
HAVE CONTINUED THE CURRENT TREND OF THE LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE LATER HALF OF WEDNESDAY.

COMBINATION OF THE SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA THAT IS BEING REINFORCED AND THEN
REPLACE WITH A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MASS AND BACK TO COOLER WITH
THE LOW TRACKING THROUGH. A LOT OF THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURES RUN
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S TO LOWER TO MID 30S. THIS MAKES THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECASTING INTERESTING. APPEARS TO BE A LOT OF
SNOWS/WET SNOWS/ MIXED RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD...ALL
DEPENDING ON WHAT THE TEMPERATURES HOLD ON TO. THERE COULD BE A
POTENTIAL GOOD SNOW EVENT WITH A SECTION OF THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM
BUT PINNING IT DOWN IS DIFFICULT AT THE TIME BEING. WILL SEE WHAT
NEXT RUN OR TWO HAS IN STORE FOR THE AREA.

FOR END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS
HAVING HARD TIME WITH THE SYSTEMS IN THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN
OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE PACIFIC. SO POSITIONS AND
STRENGTHS OF THE FEATURES ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT. OVERALL RIGHT
NOW WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A MAJOR SHIFT IF THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE YEA.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ020-021-
     024>026-029.
         HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ023-027-
     028.
         HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ022.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ018-
     019.
         STRONG WIND FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ022-036-041>043-051.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-021-033>035-052-053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-031-032.

&&

MM/BEZENEK