Alert archive / Alaska / Gale Warnings in 2011

Gale Warning 473, NWS Juneau, AK

December 26, 2011

NWS Juneau, AK issued this gale warning at Dec 26, 2011, 9:40 PM AKST. It was in force for 42 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Dec 26, 2011, 9:40 PM AKST (06:40 UTC)
Expired: Dec 28, 2011, 4:00 PM AKST
In force: 42 hr
Issued by: NWS Juneau, AK

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this gale warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Dec 26, 4:10 PM AKST, 5 hours 30 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 26, 4:10 PM AKST, 5 hours 30 minutes before

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
410 PM AKST MON DEC 26 2011

.SHORT TERM...
962 MB STORM FORCE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WITH A STRONG FRONT
MOVING ONSHORE THIS EVENING. SFC LOW WEAKENING RAPIDLY AS IT SLOWLY
MOVES N WITH THE CENTER MAKING LANDFALL IN THE VCNTY OF CAPE
SUCKLING. STRONG SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT NEAR 45N 157W AS OF 00Z AS
PER SATELLITE IMAGERY. SUSPECT THIS CENTER IS AROUND 970 MB OR SO.
STRONG STRONG HEMISPHERIC JET FROM N AFRICA TO AN EXIT NEAR 45N
135W WITH CORE SPEED 250 MB AT LEAST 150 KT. TRICKY PART OF TODAYS
FORECAST HAS BEEN SNOW AMOUNTS AND WHERE RAIN VS. SNOW. KEPT
WARNINGS NORTH END OF PANHANDLE WITH PLENTY OF WINTER WEATHER FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PANHANDLE & YAKUTAT. LOOK FOR EVENING UPDATE
SOMEWHERE AROUND 9 TO 11 PM.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEATHER PATTERN FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA REMAINS
UNCHANGED THROUGH THE LONG TERM. 500MB LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
MAIN FEATURE OVER THE REGION AS A SERIES OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THE NORTH PACIFIC THEN MOVE NORTH
INTO THE AK GULF. COLD AIR OVER THE AREA WILL BE REPLACED WITH
WARMER AIR WITH INCOMING SHORTWAVES BUT THEN BE REPLACED BY COLDER
AIR.

FOR TUE EVENING A 970 MB LOW WILL MOVE IN TO THE SOUTHEAST GULF
WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVED OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE LOW
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST MOVING JUST NORTH OF CAPE DECISION BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. REMNANTS OF THIS LOW WILL THEN RE-ESTABLISH
OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF AND THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA BECOMING
QUASI STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEK. FOR THURSDAY NEXT IN THE LOW
PRESSURE SERIES LOOKS TO MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION MOVING
OVER HAIDA GWAII. STILL FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK
OF THIS LOW AND MODEL SPREAD INCREASES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTSIDE WATERS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE
AGAIN TUE EVENING INTO WED AS THE LOW TRACK NORTH WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS. PRECIP WILL BE A MIX
OF
RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS AS COLD AIR IS REPLACED BY
INCOMING WARM AIR MASS. WILL SEE A RETURN OF COLDER AIR AGAIN
BEHIND THE LOW WED EVENING. FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS EXPECT PRECIP
TO BE MAINLY SNOW BUT DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WARMER AIR PUSHES NORTH
WILL SEE SOME MIXING OF RAIN WITH SNOW.

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EC AND GFS INITIALIZING WELL AND
IN BEST AGREEMENT. NAM HAS THE CURRENT LOW TOO FAR EAST. GFS WAS A
BIT STRONGER AND SLOWER WITH THE WED LOW THAN THE EC BUT
DIFFERENCES HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING WITH EACH NEW MODEL RUN. LARGE
MODEL SPREAD THURSDAY FOR THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE SOUTH. GFS
AGAIN MUCH STRONGER AN MORE PROGRESSIVE. NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
APPEARS TO MOVE INTO THE GULF SOMETIME SATURDAY BUT LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY BY THEN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE THROUGH
WED THEN DROPS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
AKZ023-027-028.

STRONG WIND UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING AKZ023-027-028.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM AKST TUESDAY AKZ017-020-025.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ022.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM AKST TUESDAY AKZ019.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM AKST TUESDAY AKZ018.

MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ051.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-022-036-041>043-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-031>035-053.

&&

JC/PRB

In the hours before

Local storm report, Dec 26, 9:20 PM AKST, 20 minutes before

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Local storm report, Dec 26, 9:28 PM AKST, 12 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Juneau, AK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Dec 26, 4:00 PM AKST	Gale Warning	AJK	60 hr
Dec 26, 4:00 PM AKST	Gale Warning	AJK	18 hr
Dec 26, 4:00 PM AKST	Small Craft Advisory	AJK	48 hr
Dec 26, 4:00 PM AKST	Storm Warning	AJK	12 hr
Dec 26, 6:28 PM AKST	Small Craft Advisory	AJK	10 hr
Dec 26, 9:43 PM AKST	Small Craft Advisory	AJK	6 hr
Dec 26, 9:57 PM AKST	Small Craft Advisory	AJK	42 hr
Dec 27, 4:00 AM AKST	Gale Warning	AJK	48 hr
Dec 27, 4:00 AM AKST	Gale Warning	AJK	36 hr
Dec 27, 4:00 AM AKST	Small Craft Advisory	AJK	12 hr
Dec 27, 10:23 AM AKST	Small Craft Advisory	AJK	30 hr
Dec 27, 10:32 AM AKST	Small Craft Advisory	AJK	4 days

Nearby

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2011 Every gale warning in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.