Gale Warning 301, NWS Juneau, AK

251 
FZAK52 PAJK 221723 CCA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
923 AM AKDT THU SEP 22 2011 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-230100-
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 22 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SE AK WILL DISSIPATE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS A STORM FORCE LOW MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF
THIS EVENING. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE BY LATE FRI MORNING.  

$$

PKZ041-230100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 22 2011 

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
17 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT LATE. SEAS 18 FT
BUILDING TO 23 FT LATE. RAIN.
.FRI...SW STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-230100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 22 2011 

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING NE 50 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT
BUILDING TO 18 FT LATE. RAIN.
.FRI...W GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-230100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 22 2011 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 40 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-230100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 22 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND PASSES...GUSTS
TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-230100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 22 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

844 
FZAK52 PAJK 222349
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 22 2011 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-231400-
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 22 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STORM FORCE LOW IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA WILL TRACK
NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND LIE OFF CAPE DECISION EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS IT MOVES NORTH
OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA.  

$$

PKZ041-231400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 22 2011 

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT
BUILDING TO 19 FT LATE. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
19 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-231400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 22 2011 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND BECOMING 45 KT LATE. SEAS BUILDING TO 15 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-231400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 22 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND BECOMING 30 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-231400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 22 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N LATE. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-231400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 22 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 20 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
350 PM AKDT WED SEP 21 2011

.SHORT TERM...STORM FORCE LOW OFF THE COAST OF SITKA HAS
CONTINUED TO TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE DAY MOVING SOUTH OF YAKUTAT.
THIS LOW HAS PRODUCED HEAVY RAIN FROM A LONG FETCH OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND STRONG WINDS OVER THE PANHANDLE. STORM FORCE WINDS
ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS HAVE DIMINISHED TO UPPER LEVEL GALES AND
SEAS HEIGHTS, WHILE STILL HIGH, WILL BEGIN TO DROP IN THE EVENING.
STRONG WINDS FROM THE FIRST LOW BAND OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE SECOND WRAP FROM
THE LOW NOW MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN REGIONS HAS
PRODUCED MUCH STRONGER WINDS WITH NUMEROUS GUSTS OF 60 MPH BEING
REPORTED. A HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE UNTIL 8 PM WED EVENING. GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN
INSIDE WATERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WHILE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INNER CHANNEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE. RIVER LEVELS ARE STILL BELOW ACTION STAGE BUT WITH THE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL LEVELS WILL JUST REACH ACTION STAGE LATE
TONIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT AND SIGNIFICANT FLOODING AT THIS TIME. RAIN
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISHED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND
TRANSITION TO SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL BECOME SCATTERED THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS NORTH, BECOMING AN OPEN
WAVE TROUGH THIS EVENING. WIND AND RAIN WILL DIMINISH AS THE LOW
WEAKENS. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PANHANDLE
THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY SMALL
CRAFT WINDS IN THE NORTH INNER CHANNELS THU MORNING. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP MOISTURE FLOW TO SUPPORT SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
DAY. NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
LATE THU.

 MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY, USED A BLEND OF NAM AND GFS
TO UPDATE INHERITED GRIDS. MAIN CHANGES WERE IN INCREASE WINDS
FOR TONIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST BEGINS WITH ANOTHER HIGH WIND
EVENT OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND BARANOF ISLAND. A
HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS EVENT AND PERSONS
LOCATED IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD EXPECT TO SEE THIS WATCH
CONVERTED TO A WARNING BY TOMORROW MORNING. THE LOW IN QUESTION IS
BEING DEPICTED VERY WELL BY ALL GUIDANCE WITH A TIGHT GROUPING AND
CENTRAL PRESSURES RANGING FROM 964 MB TO 973 MB AT LANDFALL EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING VICINITY CAPE DECISION. THIS WIND EVENT WILL WIND
DOWN THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST AND
WEAKENS ON ITS WAY TOWARD BRITISH COLUMBIA. RAIN WILL DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IS LOOKING LIKE A DRY DAY
WITH A WEAK OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA. THE
BRIEF BREAK WILL BE OVER BY MONDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT LOW TRACKS
INTO THE EASTERN GULF FROM THE SOUTH. THIS ONE IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN FARTHER TO THE WEST BEFORE WEAKENING AND FILLING VICINITY
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED RAINS WILL
PRIMARILY BE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE.

USED A NAM/ECMWF BLEND THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND A GFS/ECMWF BLEND
THEREAFTER. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING AND AVERAGE THEREAFTER.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     AKZ027-028.
         HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ020>023-
     025.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031>036-041>043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ052.

&&

PRB/FRITSCH