Gale Warning 296, NWS Juneau, AK

899 
FZAK52 PAJK 220635 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1034 PM AKDT WED SEP 21 2011

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-221300-
1034 PM AKDT WED SEP 21 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A 974 MB LOW S OF YAKUTAT BAY WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING
AS IT TRACKS NORTH. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS SE AK THROUGH THU MORNING. OUTLOOK. A STORM FORCE LOW
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EAST GULF AND ONSHORE THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE THU NIGHT.  

$$

PKZ041-221300-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
1034 PM AKDT WED SEP 21 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17
FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SW SWELL. RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT...E GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 



$$

PKZ042-221300-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1034 PM AKDT WED SEP 21 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SW SWELL. RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...W GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 



$$

PKZ043-221300-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1034 PM AKDT WED SEP 21 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. 
SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 



$$

PKZ051-221300-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
1034 PM AKDT WED SEP 21 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH THURSDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 



$$

PKZ052-221300-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
1034 PM AKDT WED SEP 21 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH THURSDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
350 PM AKDT WED SEP 21 2011

.SHORT TERM...STORM FORCE LOW OFF THE COAST OF SITKA HAS
CONTINUED TO TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE DAY MOVING SOUTH OF YAKUTAT.
THIS LOW HAS PRODUCED HEAVY RAIN FROM A LONG FETCH OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND STRONG WINDS OVER THE PANHANDLE. STORM FORCE WINDS
ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS HAVE DIMINISHED TO UPPER LEVEL GALES AND
SEAS HEIGHTS, WHILE STILL HIGH, WILL BEGIN TO DROP IN THE EVENING.
STRONG WINDS FROM THE FIRST LOW BAND OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE SECOND WRAP FROM
THE LOW NOW MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN REGIONS HAS
PRODUCED MUCH STRONGER WINDS WITH NUMEROUS GUSTS OF 60 MPH BEING
REPORTED. A HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE UNTIL 8 PM WED EVENING. GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN
INSIDE WATERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WHILE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INNER CHANNEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE. RIVER LEVELS ARE STILL BELOW ACTION STAGE BUT WITH THE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL LEVELS WILL JUST REACH ACTION STAGE LATE
TONIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT AND SIGNIFICANT FLOODING AT THIS TIME. RAIN
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISHED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND
TRANSITION TO SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL BECOME SCATTERED THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS NORTH, BECOMING AN OPEN
WAVE TROUGH THIS EVENING. WIND AND RAIN WILL DIMINISH AS THE LOW
WEAKENS. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PANHANDLE
THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY SMALL
CRAFT WINDS IN THE NORTH INNER CHANNELS THU MORNING. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP MOISTURE FLOW TO SUPPORT SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
DAY. NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
LATE THU.

 MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY, USED A BLEND OF NAM AND GFS
TO UPDATE INHERITED GRIDS. MAIN CHANGES WERE IN INCREASE WINDS
FOR TONIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST BEGINS WITH ANOTHER HIGH WIND
EVENT OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND BARANOF ISLAND. A
HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS EVENT AND PERSONS
LOCATED IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD EXPECT TO SEE THIS WATCH
CONVERTED TO A WARNING BY TOMORROW MORNING. THE LOW IN QUESTION IS
BEING DEPICTED VERY WELL BY ALL GUIDANCE WITH A TIGHT GROUPING AND
CENTRAL PRESSURES RANGING FROM 964 MB TO 973 MB AT LANDFALL EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING VICINITY CAPE DECISION. THIS WIND EVENT WILL WIND
DOWN THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST AND
WEAKENS ON ITS WAY TOWARD BRITISH COLUMBIA. RAIN WILL DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IS LOOKING LIKE A DRY DAY
WITH A WEAK OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA. THE
BRIEF BREAK WILL BE OVER BY MONDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT LOW TRACKS
INTO THE EASTERN GULF FROM THE SOUTH. THIS ONE IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN FARTHER TO THE WEST BEFORE WEAKENING AND FILLING VICINITY
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED RAINS WILL
PRIMARILY BE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE.

USED A NAM/ECMWF BLEND THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND A GFS/ECMWF BLEND
THEREAFTER. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING AND AVERAGE THEREAFTER.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     AKZ027-028.
         HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ020>023-
     025.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031>036-041>043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ052.

&&

PRB/FRITSCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
223 PM AKDT WED SEP 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0149 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG JUNEAU                  58.30N 134.41W
09/21/2011                                      AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED A TREE DOWN ON BACK LOOP RD. IT WAS
            ALSO REPORTED THAT THERE APPEARS TO BE ROOF DAMAGE TO A
            GCI BUILDING DOWNTOWN.

0149 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST JUNEAU                  58.30N 134.41W
09/21/2011  E0 MPH                              AK   PUBLIC

            GUST TO 69 MPH WAS REPORTED AT THE TOP OF THE MT. ROBERTS
            TRAM IN DOWNTOWN.

0149 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG JUNEAU                  58.30N 134.41W
09/21/2011                                      AK   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREES HAVE BEEN REPORTED DOWN ON WINDFALL, LONGRUN,
            MEADOW LANE, ISLAND VIEW, SKATERS CABIN AND THANE ROADS.
            THE TREE ON WINDFALL RD REPORTEDLY FELL THROUGH A HOUSE.

&&

TPS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
337 PM AKDT WED SEP 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0334 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG JUNEAU                  58.30N 134.41W
09/21/2011                                      AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            TREE DOWN ACROSS BACK LOOP ROAD IN FRONT OF NWS OFFICE.

&&

EAL