Gale Warning 261, NWS Juneau, AK

907 
FZAK67 PAJK 050550 AAA
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
950 PM AKDT SUN SEP 4 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-051400-
950 PM AKDT SUN SEP 4 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A DEVELOPING STORM FORCE LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF TONIGHT WILL
TRACK NE TO NEAR KODIAK THROUGH TUE MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED
WEATHER FRONT WILL ENTER THE EASTERN GULF MON AND ONSHORE OVER
THE PANHANDLE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE.  

$$

PKZ310-051400-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
950 PM AKDT SUN SEP 4 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS
BUILDING TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES. 
.MON NIGHT...S STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT
LATE. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 



$$

695 
FZAK67 PAJK 051130
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 5 2011 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-060100-
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 5 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A DEVELOPING STORM FORCE LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL TRACK NE
TO NEAR KODIAK THROUGH TUE MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT
WILL ENTER THE EASTERN GULF MON AND ONSHORE OVER THE PANHANDLE MON
NIGHT THROUGH TUE.

$$

PKZ310-060100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 5 2011 

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING S 40 KT LATE. STRONGEST WINDS
OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
510 AM AKDT SUN SEP 4 2011

.SHORT TERM...MAP ANALYSIS: A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG
COAST MOUNTAINS FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA TO THE SOUTHWEST YUKON
TERRITORY. A LOW OVER THE EASTERN BRISTOL BAY WITH A FORMING ONE
SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK ISLAND. A
SECOND LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST BERING SEA OVER THE UPPER LEVEL. A
WEAK TROUGH IS JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SPREAD ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL GULF.

 FORECAST REASONING: THE LOWS MOVING FROM THE BERING SEA TO THE
WESTERN GULF AS LOW DEEPENS TO THE UPPER 960 MB RANGE...SOUTH OF
KODIAK ISLAND THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAKENING WEATHER FRONT
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND INTO CENTRAL
GULF. THE LOW FROM THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA WILL BE BRINGING IN A
LARGE CHUNK OF ENERGY AND MOISTURE INTO THE DEVELOPING LOW. USING
SOME OF THE SPECIAL CHANNEL ON SATELLITES... MEASURES PRECIPITAL
WATER INTO THE THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM ARE SHOWING A VERY MOISTURE
RICH ATMOSPHERE WITH UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES OF WATER... WHICH IS
120 TO 200% OF NORMAL AMOUNTS.

 WINDS WITH THIS NEW DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT FROM THE GULF ALASKA TO THE
COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE JUST STARTING TO
SPREAD INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS AT THE END OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS.

 &&

 .LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IS STILL LOOKING VERY WET
AND WINDY. MODELS HAVE COME TOGETHER NICELY FOR THIS SYSTEM OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW STILL REMAINS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF AND ALASKA PENINSULA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL SLAM INTO THE PANHANDLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
ONE OF THE MAIN RESULTS WILL BE LOTS OF WIND. A STORM FORCE
BARRIER JET WILL SET UP IN THE NORTHERN GULF MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS IN THE GULF WILL EXPERIENCE GALE
FORCE WINDS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LAND AND INNER CHANNEL
AREAS WILL SEE SOME WINDY CONDITIONS OUT OF THIS AS WELL MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUES AS THE 850 MB WINDS REACH INTO THE 60 KT AREA.
EXPECTING SURFACE GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH SOME
AREAS ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OUTER COAST REACHING FOR
50 MPH GUSTS BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOR SW
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW IS FAR ENOUGH
WEST THAT ANY SECOND WRAP WILL BE HEADING TOWARD PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND RATHER THAN AREAS FARTHER EAST.

 THE SECOND MAJOR CONCERN IS THE RAIN. THE SYSTEM HAS A DECENT
SHOT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE THAT WAS STRIPPED FROM A FORMER
TYPHOON. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A VERY DECENT SOAKING
FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLE FROM THIS SYSTEM. SUGGESTED 6-HOUR QPF
AMOUNTS ARE REACHING INTO THE HALF INCH TO THREE-QUARTER INCH
CATEGORY OR HIGHER MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. WITH THESE
AMOUNTS THE SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS LIKE MONTANA CREEK, AND
STANEY CREEK, ARE GOING TO RESPOND RATHER MARKEDLY MONDAY NIGHT.
THE LARGER RIVER SYSTEMS WILL HAVE A SLOWER RESPONSE TIME BUT MAY
STILL HAVE NOTICEABLE RISES INTO TUESDAY.

 HYDROLOGY MATTERS ARE FURTHER COMPLICATED BY AN ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER THAT SHOWS ITSELF TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF TUESDAY
TERMINATING IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH WED. MODELS ARE STILL DEBATING HOW FAR SOUTH
THE RIVER WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE EC TAKING IT ALL
THE WAY OUT OF THE PANHANDLE BY WED NIGHT. BOTH GFS AND EC BRING
IT BACK NORTH BY LATE WEEK.

 FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE IS DEALING
WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS FROM SW FLOW AND WEAK TROUGHS FROM THE
BROAD UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST. SO CHANCE POPS REMAIN THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THROUGH MID WEEK
THEN FALLS OFF TO ABOUT AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE BY LATE WEEK.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041-042.

&&

BEZENEK/EAL