Storm Warning 37, NWS Juneau, AK

745 
FZAK67 PAJK 052335
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 5 2011 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-061400-
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 5 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 955 MB LOW SE OF KODIAK TONIGHT WILL TRACK NW AND SLOWLY
WEAKEN TO 985 MB OVER AK PENINSULA THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE NE ACROSS SE AK THROUGH LATE
TUE NIGHT.  

$$

PKZ310-061400-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 5 2011 

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING S 40 KT LATE. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

012 
FZAK67 PAJK 061135
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 6 2011 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-070100-
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 6 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 962 MB LOW E OF KODIAK WILL TRACK NW AND SLOWLY WEAKEN TO
985 MB OVER AK PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER
FRONT WILL MOVE NE ACROSS SE AK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.  

$$

PKZ310-070100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 6 2011 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT IN THE EVENING...DECREASING TO 30 KT
LATE. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
424 PM AKDT SUN SEP 4 2011

.SHORT TERM...AFTERNOON SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A WEAKENING RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG COAST MOUNTAINS SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE FAR NORTHERN GULF PUSHES A TROUGH
TOWARDS NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST. A WEAKENING BAROCLINIC LEAF
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. AN OCCLUDED FRONT
ASSOCIATED A DEVELOPING STORM IN THE FAR WESTERN GULF PUSHES A
SERIES OF RAIN BANDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. RAIN SHOWERS
PREVAIL MOST OF THE PANHANDLE WITH SLOWLY INCREASING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS. AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST...SOUTHERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WITH
NEAR SMALL CRAFT WIND OVER NORTHERN LYNN CANAL.

 MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPING STORM FORCE LOW
OVER THE WESTERN GULF TONIGHT WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO NEAR KODIAK
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT WILL ENTER
THE EASTERN GULF MONDAY AND ONSHORE OVER THE PANHANDLE BY LATE
MONDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MAKE A BETTER CONSENSUS THAN THE NAM.
THIS INCOMING SYSTEM WILL BRING ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS TO THE
NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLE COAST ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND A STORM
WARNING WILL BE POSTED FOR THE NORTHERN MOST OUTSIDE WATERS AS
WELL. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS ON MONDAY...THEN INCLUDE CROSS SOUND...ICY STRAIT AND
CLARENCE STRAIT IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH WED AFTERNOON
SO THERE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND THEY BEGIN TO DIFFER ON THE DETAILS
AT THE SURFACE BUT HAVE A FAIR HANDLE ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.
SO THERE IS ABOUT AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ON THE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
THE FORECAST. USED A BLEND OF THE 00ZEC AND 12Z GFS THROUGH WED
THEN TRANSITION TO HPC GUIDANCE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD A STRONG WEATHER FRONT
FROM A STORM FORCE LOW NEAR KODIAK ISLAND. THIS FRONT WILL SPREAD
STORM FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF
ALONG WITH GALE FORECAST WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF. SEAS HEIGHTS WILL
BUILD TO BE NEAR 30 FT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...THE REST OF THE GULF WILL SEE WAVES BUILD TO 20 FT. THE
STRONG WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
MON NIGHT INTO TUE. WINDS OVER THE E/W CHANNELS AND CLARENCE
STRAIT WILL SEE GALE FOR WINDS A THROUGH THE MON NIGHT WHILE THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE INNER CHANNELS WILL SEE NORTH WINDS INCREASE
TO 20 KT BUT THEN SWITCH TO THE S EARLY TUE MORNING AND INCREASE
TO GALES. OVER LAND THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD WIND ADVY THAT WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. THESE WINDS
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH TUE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE FRONT
DRIFTS EAST OVER THE NORTHERN AREA. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS WHERE THEY WILL SEE STRONG
WINDS FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH TUES AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA TO PRODUCE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT. BY
TUES NIGHT MOST AREAS WILL SEE MUCH LIGHTER WINDS BUT STILL RANGE
FROM 10 TO 20 MPH.

AS FOR PRECIP...PW VALUES ARE NEAR 1.5 INCHES AND WITH STRONG
VERTICAL MOTION THIS WILL PRODUCE RAIN THAT WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES
THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUES. THIS WILL CAUSE SMALL STREAMS AND
RIVERS TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH A HIGH CHANCE OF MINOR FLOODING
AS RAIN FALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES THROUGH TUES
AFTERNOON. THE GROUND IS VERY SATURATED FROM PAST WEATHER SYSTEM
AND WITH THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY PRECIP THE
THREAT OF LOCALIZED MUD SLIDE WILL INCREASE. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL
TAPPER OVER THE MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUES NIGHT. A
DEVELOPING WAVE WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN THROUGH WED. THE NORTHERN GULF WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY RAIN AS THEY WILL IN STRONG FLOW FROM
THE SOUTH AND SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS THROUGH WED.

THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE GULF AND DIGGING INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC WILL KEEP RAIN LIKELY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK. A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PANHANDLE
AND WAVES WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC. THIS STREAM OF
MOISTURE WILL SEND A WARM FRONT OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH FREEZING LEVEL RISING TO BE NEAR 12000 FEET. THERE
IS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF THIS FRONT ALONG WITH WHEN
BREAKS IN THE RAIN WILL HAPPEN AS THERE WILL BE SOME ANTICYCLONIC
ROTATION THAT WILL PRODUCE TIMES WITH NO RAIN.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM AKDT MONDAY FOR AKZ022.
         WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM AKDT TUESDAY FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ052.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ021-022-036-041>043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ033>035-053.

&&

AHN/ABJ