Alert archive / Alaska / Storm Warnings in 2011

Storm Warning 40, NWS Juneau, AK

September 5, 2011

NWS Juneau, AK issued this storm warning at Sep 5, 2011, 4:00 AM AKDT. It was in force for 19 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Sep 5, 2011, 4:00 AM AKDT (12:00 UTC)
Expired
Sep 5, 2011, 11:12 PM AKDT
In force
19 hr
Issued by
NWS Juneau, AK

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

897 
FZAK52 PAJK 051131
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 5 2011 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-060100-
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 5 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A DEVELOPING STORM FORCE LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL TRACK NE
TO NEAR KODIAK THROUGH TUE MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT
WILL ENTER THE EASTERN GULF MON AND ONSHORE OVER THE PANHANDLE MON
NIGHT THROUGH TUE.

$$

PKZ041-060100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 5 2011 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 20 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. W SWELL. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT. W SWELL. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-060100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 5 2011 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 30 KT LATE. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. W SWELL. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-060100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 5 2011 

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT BECOMING 45 KT LATE. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-060100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 5 2011 

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING E 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 45 KT LATE. SEAS 21 FT
BUILDING TO 24 FT LATE. RAIN.
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SHOWERS.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. SHOWERS.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-060100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 5 2011 

...STORM WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING E 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 22 FT BUILDING TO
27 FT LATE. RAIN.
.TUE...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SHOWERS.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SHOWERS.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$
3 follow-up statements
397 
FZAK52 PAJK 052334
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 5 2011 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-061400-
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 5 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A 955 MB LOW SE OF KODIAK TONIGHT WILL TRACK NW AND SLOWLY
WEAKEN TO 985 MB OVER AK PENINSULA THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE NE ACROSS SE AK THROUGH LATE
TUE NIGHT.  

$$

PKZ041-061400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 5 2011 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 25 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING
TO 15 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17
FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 12 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-061400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 5 2011 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 30 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT BUILDING
TO 18 FT. SHOWERS. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 13 FT. W SWELL. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-061400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 5 2011 

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING 45 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT BUILDING
TO 21 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-061400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 5 2011 

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 45 KT LATE. SEAS 20 FT
BUILDING TO 24 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 23
FT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SHOWERS.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. SHOWERS.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. S SWELL. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-061400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 5 2011 

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 45 KT LATE. SEAS 20 FT
BUILDING TO 28 FT. RAIN
IN THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE. 
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 26 FT.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SHOWERS.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SHOWERS.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. S SWELL. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$
543 
FZAK52 PAJK 060450 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
850 PM AKDT MON SEP 5 2011

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-061400-
850 PM AKDT MON SEP 5 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A 955 MB LOW SE OF KODIAK TONIGHT WILL TRACK NW AND SLOWLY
WEAKEN TO 985 MB OVER AK PENINSULA THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE NE ACROSS SE AK THROUGH LATE
TUE NIGHT.  

$$

PKZ041-061400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
850 PM AKDT MON SEP 5 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 25 KT LATE. SEAS 15
FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17
FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 12 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-061400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
850 PM AKDT MON SEP 5 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 30 KT LATE. SEAS
18 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 13 FT. W SWELL. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-061400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
850 PM AKDT MON SEP 5 2011

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 45 KT LATE. SEAS
21 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-061400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
850 PM AKDT MON SEP 5 2011

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 45 KT LATE. SEAS
24 FT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 23
FT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SHOWERS.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. SHOWERS.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. S SWELL. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-061400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
850 PM AKDT MON SEP 5 2011

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...E WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 45 KT LATE. SEAS
28 FT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 26 FT.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SHOWERS.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SHOWERS.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. S SWELL. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$
388 
FZAK52 PAJK 060716 AAB
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1112 PM AKDT MON SEP 5 2011

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-061400-
1112 PM AKDT MON SEP 5 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A 955 MB LOW SE OF KODIAK TONIGHT WILL TRACK NW AND SLOWLY
WEAKEN TO 985 MB OVER AK PENINSULA THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE NE ACROSS SE AK THROUGH LATE
TUE NIGHT.  

$$

PKZ041-061400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
1112 PM AKDT MON SEP 5 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 15
FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17
FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 12 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-061400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1112 PM AKDT MON SEP 5 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 13 FT. W SWELL. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-061400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1112 PM AKDT MON SEP 5 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-061400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
1112 PM AKDT MON SEP 5 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 23
FT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SHOWERS.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. SHOWERS.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. S SWELL. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-061400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
1112 PM AKDT MON SEP 5 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 26 FT.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SHOWERS.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SHOWERS.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. S SWELL. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this storm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this storm warning went out at Sep 4, 4:24 PM AKDT, 11 hours 36 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 4, 4:24 PM AKDT, 11 hours 36 minutes before
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
424 PM AKDT SUN SEP 4 2011

.SHORT TERM...AFTERNOON SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A WEAKENING RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG COAST MOUNTAINS SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE FAR NORTHERN GULF PUSHES A TROUGH
TOWARDS NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST. A WEAKENING BAROCLINIC LEAF
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. AN OCCLUDED FRONT
ASSOCIATED A DEVELOPING STORM IN THE FAR WESTERN GULF PUSHES A
SERIES OF RAIN BANDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. RAIN SHOWERS
PREVAIL MOST OF THE PANHANDLE WITH SLOWLY INCREASING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS. AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST...SOUTHERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WITH
NEAR SMALL CRAFT WIND OVER NORTHERN LYNN CANAL.

 MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPING STORM FORCE LOW
OVER THE WESTERN GULF TONIGHT WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO NEAR KODIAK
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT WILL ENTER
THE EASTERN GULF MONDAY AND ONSHORE OVER THE PANHANDLE BY LATE
MONDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MAKE A BETTER CONSENSUS THAN THE NAM.
THIS INCOMING SYSTEM WILL BRING ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS TO THE
NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLE COAST ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND A STORM
WARNING WILL BE POSTED FOR THE NORTHERN MOST OUTSIDE WATERS AS
WELL. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS ON MONDAY...THEN INCLUDE CROSS SOUND...ICY STRAIT AND
CLARENCE STRAIT IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH WED AFTERNOON
SO THERE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND THEY BEGIN TO DIFFER ON THE DETAILS
AT THE SURFACE BUT HAVE A FAIR HANDLE ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.
SO THERE IS ABOUT AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ON THE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
THE FORECAST. USED A BLEND OF THE 00ZEC AND 12Z GFS THROUGH WED
THEN TRANSITION TO HPC GUIDANCE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD A STRONG WEATHER FRONT
FROM A STORM FORCE LOW NEAR KODIAK ISLAND. THIS FRONT WILL SPREAD
STORM FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF
ALONG WITH GALE FORECAST WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF. SEAS HEIGHTS WILL
BUILD TO BE NEAR 30 FT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...THE REST OF THE GULF WILL SEE WAVES BUILD TO 20 FT. THE
STRONG WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
MON NIGHT INTO TUE. WINDS OVER THE E/W CHANNELS AND CLARENCE
STRAIT WILL SEE GALE FOR WINDS A THROUGH THE MON NIGHT WHILE THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE INNER CHANNELS WILL SEE NORTH WINDS INCREASE
TO 20 KT BUT THEN SWITCH TO THE S EARLY TUE MORNING AND INCREASE
TO GALES. OVER LAND THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD WIND ADVY THAT WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. THESE WINDS
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH TUE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE FRONT
DRIFTS EAST OVER THE NORTHERN AREA. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS WHERE THEY WILL SEE STRONG
WINDS FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH TUES AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA TO PRODUCE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT. BY
TUES NIGHT MOST AREAS WILL SEE MUCH LIGHTER WINDS BUT STILL RANGE
FROM 10 TO 20 MPH.

AS FOR PRECIP...PW VALUES ARE NEAR 1.5 INCHES AND WITH STRONG
VERTICAL MOTION THIS WILL PRODUCE RAIN THAT WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES
THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUES. THIS WILL CAUSE SMALL STREAMS AND
RIVERS TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH A HIGH CHANCE OF MINOR FLOODING
AS RAIN FALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES THROUGH TUES
AFTERNOON. THE GROUND IS VERY SATURATED FROM PAST WEATHER SYSTEM
AND WITH THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY PRECIP THE
THREAT OF LOCALIZED MUD SLIDE WILL INCREASE. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL
TAPPER OVER THE MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUES NIGHT. A
DEVELOPING WAVE WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN THROUGH WED. THE NORTHERN GULF WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY RAIN AS THEY WILL IN STRONG FLOW FROM
THE SOUTH AND SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS THROUGH WED.

THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE GULF AND DIGGING INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC WILL KEEP RAIN LIKELY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK. A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PANHANDLE
AND WAVES WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC. THIS STREAM OF
MOISTURE WILL SEND A WARM FRONT OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH FREEZING LEVEL RISING TO BE NEAR 12000 FEET. THERE
IS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF THIS FRONT ALONG WITH WHEN
BREAKS IN THE RAIN WILL HAPPEN AS THERE WILL BE SOME ANTICYCLONIC
ROTATION THAT WILL PRODUCE TIMES WITH NO RAIN.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM AKDT MONDAY FOR AKZ022.
         WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM AKDT TUESDAY FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ052.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ021-022-036-041>043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ033>035-053.

&&

AHN/ABJ

The office that day

Everything else NWS Juneau, AK issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 4, 4:00 PM AKDTGale WarningAJK12 hr
Sep 4, 4:00 PM AKDTGale WarningAJK31 hr
Sep 4, 4:00 PM AKDTGale WarningAJK36 hr
Sep 4, 4:00 PM AKDTSmall Craft AdvisoryAJK36 hr
Sep 4, 4:00 PM AKDTStorm WarningAJK31 hr
Sep 5, 4:00 AM AKDTGale WarningAJK30 hr
Sep 5, 4:00 AM AKDTSmall Craft AdvisoryAJK24 hr
Sep 5, 4:00 AM AKDTStorm WarningAJK24 hr
Sep 5, 1:07 PM AKDTSmall Craft AdvisoryAJK15 hr

Nearby

Storm Warnings in Alaska, 2011Every storm warning in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.