Winter Storm Watch 4, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
136 PM AKST TUE FEB 15 2011

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS EMBEDDED
IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
ALONG THE FAR EASTERN SIBERIAN COAST ATTM AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
ASSOCIATED FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BRINGING AN
END TO THE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LATE THIS MORNING. SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE FRONT STRETCHING AND WEAKENING AS
IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ONTO THE
BERING COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE MOVE INLAND THIS
EVENING. WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE AT PASA AND PAGM ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE FRONT HOWEVER WINDS SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ALONG THE BERING COAST WITH PATC GUSTING OVER 40 KTS AND
VISIBILITY AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS DROPPING TO ONE HALF MILE OR LESS.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND. TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO RECOVER FROM
COLD START THIS MORNING WITH WITH SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHER FEBRUARY
SUN ANGLE. FAIRBANKS TEMPERATURE DROPPED TO 44 BELOW THIS MORNING
WHICH IS THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE OF THE SEASON FOR FAIRBANKS. THE
LAST TIME THE TEMPERATURE REACHED 44 BELOW AT THE FAIRBANKS
AIRPORT WAS JANUARY 11 2009.

NORTH SLOPE...WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 40 KTS AT PALU WITH
REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING SNOW...ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTH
SLOPE WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 20 KTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING. SNOW AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD
MOVING BERING COAST FRONT EXPECTED WILL MOVE INTO PABR THIS
EVENING WITH CHANCE POPS AND POINTS EASTWARD BY LATE NIGHT.

WEST COAST...FOCUS QUICKLY TURNS TO A SECOND MORE POWERFUL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
EVENING. SYSTEM CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 160 EAST AND 55 NORTH
PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND DEEPEN TO 965 MB WILL MOVE INTO THE
ANADYR GULF THURSDAY MORNING WHICH WILL LIKELY SPREAD BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS INTO ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND ALONG THE Y-K DELTA
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND PORTIONS OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA THURSDAY.
MAX GALES LIKELY FOR BERING SEA MARINE ZONES WITH STORM CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND.

INTERIOR...WEST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM SFC TO 500 MB DEVELOPS AS
THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ANADYR AND HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR HIGH BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN AND MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALONG
WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO
THE WESTERN INTERIOR BEGINNING THURSDAY AND MAY MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

MODELS...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING GULF OF ANADYR LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES NOTED THROUGH FRIDAY. RMOPS
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LONG WAVE FEATURES LEADING TO ABOVE
AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ213.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ214.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230-PKZ235.
&&

RL/CC FEB 11