Brisk Wind Advisory 59, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
339 AM AKST WED FEB 16 2011

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN TODAY...AND THEN DISSIPATE IN THE VCNTY
OF BARROW TONIGHT. A DEEP LOW ACROSS CENTRAL SIBERIA WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA BY FRI AS ANOTHER STRONG UPPER
LOW IN THE SW BERING SEA MOVES NORTHEAST AND MERGES WITH THE
RUSSIAN LOW.

SURFACE...A 996 MB LOW ACROSS THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA MOVES NORTH
TODAY AND WEAKENS. A 965 MB LOW IN THE SW BERING SEA EARLY THIS
MORNING HAS A NICE PRESENTATION ON SATELLITE AS IT DEEPENED ABOUT
15 MILLIBARS IN THE LAST 12 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE
NORTHEAST AT AROUND 45 KTS. THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM/UKMET/GEM ARE IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH TRACK AND DEPTH OF THE LOW THROUGH 12Z
FRI. THE GFS IS 2-4 MILLIBARS DEEPER THAN ANY OTHER MODEL...BUT
THAT IS ABOUT THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE NEXT 36-48
HOURS...AND DOES NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER THAT IS EXPECTED WITH THE STORM.

WEST COAST...WILL START THE DAY WITH A CLEAN SLATE AS THE REMAINING
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN ZONES 207 AND 209 HAVE BEEN CANCELLED
AS THE SNOW AND WIND FROM THE FIRST LOW WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH THIS
MORNING. PLAN TO ISSUE BLIZZARD WATCHES FOR ZONES 207-209-210-211-
212-213-214 AND A WINTER STORM WATCHE FOR ZONE 215 THAT BEGIN AT
VARIOUS TIMES EITHER THIS EVENING OR AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
RUN INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP
FIRST ON SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND AND ALONG THE Y-K DELTA COAST AND
THEN SPREAD TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 60+ MPH
ARE EXPECTED AT SAVOONGA AND WALES AND ALONG THE Y-K DELTA COAST
WHERE SEVERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

NORTH SLOPE...THERE WILL BE SOME AREAS OF SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS...
MAINLY ALONG THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN ARCTIC COAST OUT AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE SNOW DOES NOT LOOK TO MAKE IT MUCH
FURTHER EAST THAN BARROW AS THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS NEAR BARROW
TONIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MORE THAN AN INCH OR
TWO. AS THE SECOND LOW MOVES UP TO THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA STRONG
S'LY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DOWN-SLOPE OFF THE BROOKS RANGE AND SHOULD
KEEP MOST OF THE COAST DRY...AT LEAST UNTIL THE LOW LIFTS NORTH OF
THE AREA FRIDAY. POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER SNOW ON THE SOUTH
FACING SLOPES OF THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE THU AFTERNOON INTO THUR
NIGHT.

INTERIOR...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CHUKOTSK
PENINSULA LOW WIMPS OUT TODAY AS IT OUTRUNS IT'S SUPPORT ALOFT ACROSS
THE WESTERN INTERIOR.  THERE MAYBE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS IN PARTS OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR...BUT NOTHING MORE.  SHOULD
SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE FAIRBANKS
AREA...BUT NO SNOW.  A MUCH STRONGER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SECOND LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR THURSDAY WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY.  THE SNOW WILL LIKELY
MOVE INTO THE FAIRBANKS AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING AND WITH THE STRONG
SW FLOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF PICKING UP A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW...AND POSSIBLE MORE ON THE HILLS WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO
EASTERN INTERIOR THURS NIGHT.

MEDIUM RANGE...THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A THIRD LOW
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.  THE MODELS
ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT LOW FOLLOWS A SIMILAR
TRACK TO LOW # 2. THE LOW LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE WEAKER THAN IT'S
PREDECESSOR AND MAY FOLLOW A TRACK A BIT FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST.
AFTER ABOUT 96 HOURS THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES DIVERGE RAPIDLY AND
FORECAST CONFIDENCE RAPIDLY DROPS. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED IN A VERY
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THE NCEP RMOPS ARE VERY LOW.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FOR AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-
AKZ214.

WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ215.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.

STORM WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

CB FEB 11