Gale Warning 136, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1124 AM AKST SAT DEC 3 2011

.DISCUSSION...
AS OF 18Z SAT...BERING SEA LOW IS AT OR NEAR MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE AROUND 960 MB. LITTLE CHANGE IN CENTRAL PRESSURE EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN THE LOW WILL BEGIN FILLING AS IT CONTINUES
ON ITS NORTHEASTWARD COURSE.

PROGGED POSITIONS AND CENTRAL PRESSURE:
00Z SUN   960 MB   NEAR ST MATTHEW ISLAND
12Z SUN   963 MB   NEAR ST LAWRENCE ISLAND
00Z MON   970 MB   NEAR THE BERING STRAIT
12Z MON   980 MB   NEAR BARROW

SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC SLOPE EARLY
SUN EVE...RAPIDLY DEEPENING TO 972 MB NEAR BANKS ISLAND BY
18Z MON.

BLIZZARD...WINTER STORM...AND HIGH WIND WARNINGS CURRENTLY
IN EFFECT WILL BE CONTINUED. BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE BROOKS
RANGE PASSES IN AKZ206 WILL BE ISSUED TODAY...STRONG
S TO SW WINDS DEVELOPING IN PASSES LATE TONIGHT WITH RAPIDLY
INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT ACROSS
THE BROOKS RANGE.

IN THE ALASKA RANGE...LOCAL WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 62 MPH HAVE
OCCURRED LATE THIS MORNING...WINDS ARE STARTING TO INCREASE
IN THE WESTERN PASSES OF AKZ226.

GUSTY S TO SW WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR SUN EVE AND
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR FROM AKZ220-AKZ221 NORTHWARD LATER
SUN NIGHT...AS THE MAIN LOW CENTER MOVES NORTHEAST AND AS A SECONDARY
LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC AND MOVES EAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
EVENTUALLY BUILDS OVER SW ALASKA. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
REINFORCED BY COLD ADVECTION AND RAPID PRESSURE RISES TO SET UP THE
GUSTY WINDS. OVER HIGHER SUMMITS ON THE STEESE...ELLIOTT...AND DALTON
HIGHWAYS...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 60 MPH.

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER AKZ204 LATE MON AFTERNOON
OR EARLY MON EVENING AFTER THE SECONDARY LOW EXITS...BLIZZARD
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THE SUN MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE.

CURRENT MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATING ANOTHER STORM
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA TUE NIGHT...PRODUCING ANOTHER
ROUND OF MAJOR WINTER WINTER WEATHER FOR THE WEST COAST AND
WESTERN INTERIOR...AND ANOTHER STRONG CHINOOK IN THE ALASKA RANGE.
GFS LOOKS A LITTLE FASTER ON THE LOW MOVEMENT THAN THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FOR AKZ202-AKZ203.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ217-AKZ218-
AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ227.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ201-AKZ205-AKZ206-AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-
AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ225-AKZ226.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-
PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

RF DEC 11

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
836 AM AKST SAT DEC 3 2011

AKZ201>206-041800-
WESTERN ARCTIC COAST-NORTHERN ARCTIC COAST-
CENTRAL BEAUFORT SEA COAST-EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA COAST-
NORTHWESTERN BROOKS RANGE-NORTHEASTERN BROOKS RANGE-
INCLUDING...WAINWRIGHT...ATQASUK...POINT LAY...CAPE LISBURNE...
BARROW...ALAKTAK...PITT POINT...NULAVIK...NUIQSUT...PRUDHOE BAY...
ALPINE...DEADHORSE...KUPARUK...KAKTOVIK...FLAXMAN ISLAND...
SINGILUK...UMIAT...ANAKTUVUK PASS...ATIGUN PASS...
GALBRAITH LAKE...SAGWON...FRANKLIN BLUFFS
836 AM AKST SAT DEC 3 2011

...MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT ARCTIC PLAIN AND COAST THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...

A MAJOR WINTER STORM MOVING UP THE WEST COAST WILL PUSH NORTH
TODAY EFFECTING THE ARCTIC SLOPE.

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AROUND CAPE LISBURNE EARLY THIS
EVENING AND THEN WORK NORTH AND WEST TONIGHT EVENTUALLY AFFECTING
THE ENTIRE NORTH SLOPE.

EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT
TO 30 TO 40 MPH WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 60 MPH THROUGH BROOKS RANGE
PASSES. THE STRONG WINDS WILL PICK UP SNOW CREATING BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITY ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS...AND EVEN
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IN SOME AREAS. AREAS CAN ALSO EXPECT TO SEE
4 TO 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW THOUGH MUCH OF IT WILL BE DRIFTED BY
THE STRONG WINDS.

DANGEROUS CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH SUNDAY IN THE ARCTIC PLAIN
AND COASTAL AREAS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE IN THE WESTERN BROOKS
RANGE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

THE WINTER STORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AND WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST WITH NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE ARCTIC PLAIN AND COAST AREAS.

TRAVEL DURING THIS STORM WILL BE EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS DUE TO POOR
VISIBILITY IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...AND SIGNIFICANT DRIFTING OF
SNOW.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
851 AM AKST SAT DEC 3 2011

AKZ201>206-041800-
WESTERN ARCTIC COAST-NORTHERN ARCTIC COAST-
CENTRAL BEAUFORT SEA COAST-EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA COAST-
NORTHWESTERN BROOKS RANGE-NORTHEASTERN BROOKS RANGE-
INCLUDING...WAINWRIGHT...ATQASUK...POINT LAY...CAPE LISBURNE...
BARROW...ALAKTAK...PITT POINT...NULAVIK...NUIQSUT...PRUDHOE BAY...
ALPINE...DEADHORSE...KUPARUK...KAKTOVIK...FLAXMAN ISLAND...
SINGILUK...UMIAT...ANAKTUVUK PASS...ATIGUN PASS...
GALBRAITH LAKE...SAGWON...FRANKLIN BLUFFS
851 AM AKST SAT DEC 3 2011

...MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT ARCTIC PLAIN AND COAST THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...

A MAJOR WINTER STORM MOVING UP THE WEST COAST WILL PUSH NORTH
TODAY EFFECTING THE ARCTIC SLOPE.

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AROUND CAPE LISBURNE EARLY THIS
EVENING AND THEN WORK NORTH AND WEST TONIGHT EVENTUALLY AFFECTING
THE ENTIRE NORTH SLOPE.

EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT
TO 30 TO 40 MPH WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 60 MPH THROUGH BROOKS RANGE
PASSES. THE STRONG WINDS WILL PICK UP SNOW CREATING BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITY ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS...AND EVEN
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IN SOME AREAS. AREAS CAN ALSO EXPECT TO SEE
4 TO 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW THOUGH MUCH OF IT WILL BE DRIFTED BY
THE STRONG WINDS.

DANGEROUS CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH SUNDAY IN THE ARCTIC PLAIN
AND COASTAL AREAS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE IN THE WESTERN BROOKS
RANGE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

THE WINTER STORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AND WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST WITH NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE ARCTIC PLAIN AND COAST AREAS.

TRAVEL DURING THIS STORM WILL BE EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS DUE TO POOR
VISIBILITY IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...AND SIGNIFICANT DRIFTING OF
SNOW.

FOR MORE INFORMATION GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/FAIRBANKS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1038 AM AKST SAT DEC 3 2011

AKZ218>223-225-226-041800-
SOUTHEASTERN BROOKS RANGE-UPPER KOYUKUK VALLEY-
YUKON FLATS AND SURROUNDING UPLANDS-CENTRAL INTERIOR-
MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY-DELTANA AND TANANA FLATS-DENALI-
EASTERN ALASKA RANGE-
INCLUDING...ARCTIC VILLAGE...WISEMAN...COLDFOOT...
CHANDALAR D.O.T. CAMP...INIAKUK LAKE...ALLAKAKET...HUGHES...
BETTLES...CARIBOU MOUNTAIN...GOBBLERS KNOB...FORT YUKON...
VENETIE...CENTRAL...CIRCLE...STEVENS VILLAGE...BEAVER...
CHALKYITSIK...BIRCH CREEK...CIRCLE HOT SPRINGS...EAGLE SUMMIT...
TWELVEMILE SUMMIT...NENANA...ANDERSON...TANANA...MINTO...
MANLEY HOT SPRINGS...RAMPART...LAKE MINCHUMINA...LIVENGOOD...
FAIRBANKS...FORT WAINWRIGHT...EIELSON AFB...ESTER...NORTH POLE...
MOOSE CREEK...TWO RIVERS...FOX...CHATANIKA...CHENA HOT SPRINGS...
SOURDOUGH CAMP...SALCHA...DELTA JUNCTION...FORT GREELY...
HARDING/BIRCH LAKE...DRY CREEK...DOT LAKE...HEALY LAKE...HEALY...
DENALI NATIONAL PARK...CARLO CREEK...KANTISHNA...MENTASTA LAKE...
BLACK RAPIDS...DONNELLY DOME...TRIMS CAMP...EAGLE TRAIL...
MINERAL LAKE
1038 AM AKST SAT DEC 3 2011

...MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL BRING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO INTERIOR...

A MAJOR WINTER STORM MOVING UP THE WEST COAST WILL BRING A VARIETY
OF WEATHER TO THE INTERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY.

AS THE STORM CONTINUES ITS NORTHWARD PUSH HEAVY SNOW WILL SPREAD
INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. SNOW WILL BEGIN FALLING LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE UPPER KOYUKUK VALLEY...THE BROOKS RANGE WEST OF
ARCTIC VILLAGE...THE UPPER YUKON VALLEY WEST OF FORT YUKON...AND
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WEST OF FAIRBANKS AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY. STORM SNOWFALL TOTALS OF UP TO 1 FOOT CAN BE EXPECTED IN
MANY OF THESE AREAS...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 2 FEET POSSIBLE
ALONG SOUTH AND WEST FACING SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY MOVE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
INTERIOR LATE SUNDAY...BUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EAST OF MANLEY HOT
SPRINGS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...WILL ONLY
BE AROUND 2 TO 5 INCHES.

STRONG GRADIENTS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE WILL PRODUCE
VERY STRONG CHINOOK WINDS IN ALASKA RANGE PASSES WEST OF THE TOK
CUTOFF. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY TO 35 TO
55 MPH WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 75 MPH OCCURRING IN THE PASSES. LOCAL
WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE.

A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
EASTERN ARCTIC COAST SUNDAY EVENING...THEN INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AS
IT MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO. THE RESULTING
PRESSURE GRADIENT...REINFORCED BY RAPID PRESSURE RISES AND MUCH
COLDER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...WILL PRODUCE STRONG AND
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR...AND
OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR FROM THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY
NORTH AND EAST SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MOST
AREAS...INCLUDING FAIRBANKS AND VICINITY...CAN EXPECT SOUTHWEST
WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH LOCAL GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND 60 MPH OVER SUMMITS. WITH THE STRONG WINDS
SIGNIFICANT DRIFTING AND BLOWING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS WILL
MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH
HEAVY DRIFTING SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER HIGHER SUMMITS...POTENTIALLY
EFFECTING TRAVEL ON THE DALTON...STEESE...AND ELLIOTT HIGHWAYS
AND THE PARKS HIGHWAY NORTH OF NENANA AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THIS STORM WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE ONE EXPERIENCED IN FEBRUARY
OF THIS YEAR WHEN STORMY CONDITION CREATED VERY DANGEROUS
CONDITIONS IN THE INTERIOR. PEOPLE IN THE BACK COUNTRY SHOULD
SHELTER IN PLACE...BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON...FROM THE STORM
AND TRAVEL SHOULD BE LIMITED TO EMERGENCIES ONLY UNTIL THE STORM
EXITS THE REGION. SIGNIFICANT DRIFTING OF SNOW WILL MAY MAKE
TRAILS IN THE BACK COUNTRY IMPASSABLE...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...EVEN AFTER THE STORM ENDS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/FAIRBANKS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1212 PM AKST SAT DEC 3 2011

AKZ207>217-227-032315-
CHUKCHI SEA COAST-LOWER KOBUK AND NOATAK VALLEYS-
BALDWIN PENINSULA AND SELAWIK VALLEY-
NORTHERN AND INTERIOR SEWARD PENINSULA-
SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA COAST-
EASTERN NORTON SOUND AND NULATO HILLS-
ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND BERING STRAIT COAST-YUKON DELTA-
LOWER YUKON VALLEY-LOWER KOYUKUK AND MIDDLE YUKON VALLEYS-
UPPER KOBUK AND NOATAK VALLEYS-UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY-
INCLUDING...POINT HOPE...SHISHMAREF...KIVALINA...ESPENBERG...
NOATAK...KIANA...RED DOG MINE...KOTZEBUE...SELAWIK...NOORVIK...
BUCKLAND...DEERING...CANDLE...COUNCIL...HAYCOCK...
PILGRIM SPRINGS...SERPENTINE HOT SPRINGS...TAYLOR...NOME...
WHITE MOUNTAIN...GOLOVIN...UNALAKLEET...STEBBINS...ST MICHAEL...
ELIM...KOYUK...SHAKTOOLIK...GAMBELL...SAVOONGA...BREVIG MISSION...
TELLER...WALES...DIOMEDE...MOUNTAIN VILLAGE...EMMONAK...
ALAKANUK...KOTLIK...PILOT STATION...ST MARYS...SCAMMON BAY...
MARSHALL...NUNAM IQUA...PITKAS POINT...RUSSIAN MISSION...
GRAYLING...HOLY CROSS...SHAGELUK...ANVIK...FLAT...GALENA...
NULATO...HUSLIA...KALTAG...RUBY...KOYUKUK...AMBLER...SHUNGNAK...
KOBUK...MCGRATH...NIKOLAI...TAKOTNA...FAREWELL LAKE
1212 PM AKST SAT DEC 3 2011

...MAJOR WINTER STORM IMPACTING WEST COAST...

A MAJOR WINTER STORM IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MOVE NORTH TO
THE BERING STRAIT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE
CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE STORM IS BRINGING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE WEST
COAST TODAY THAT WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS INTO SUNDAY.

VERY STRONG WINDS...30 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH...CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG AND NEAR COASTAL AREAS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND AND THE BERING STRAIT COAST WHERE NORTHEAST
WINDS 45 TO 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED. INLAND WINDS WILL BE MUCH
LIGHTER...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE WHICH
WILL SEE SOUTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH GUSTING TO NEAR 60 MPH
THROUGH SOME OF THE PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT.

HEAVY SNOW HAS ALREADY BEGUN IN MANY OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR AREAS
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME AREAS...MAINLY SOUTH OF
RUBY...MAY SEE SOME FREEZING RAIN MIX IN WITH THE SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON AND IN THE EARLY EVENING. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IN THE
INTERIOR AREAS WILL BE UP TO TWO FEET. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE NULATO HILLS...THE LOWER YUKON VALLEY...THE LOWER
KOYUKUK AND MIDDLE YUKON VALLEYS...AND THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE
UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

TRAVEL ALONG THE WEST COAST AND IN THE INTERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO
BE HAZARDOUS AS THE STORM CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY...AND SHOULD
BE LIMITED TO EMERGENCIES ONLY UNTIL THE STORM EXITS THE REGION.
RESIDENTS TRAVELING IN THE BACK COUNTRY SHOULD SHELTER IN PLACE
UNTIL THE STORM ENDS AND USE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING ONCE
THE STORM ENDS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/FAIRBANKS.