Blizzard Watch 12, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1125 AM AKST FRI DEC 2 2011

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS HANDLING THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE BERING SEA QUITE WELL
AND SOMEWHAT GOOD AGREEMENT AFTER MONDAY OUT TO 96 HOURS.

ALOFT...500 MB...584 DAM HIGH IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL BUILD
NORTH OVER MAINLAND ALASKA THE SHARP RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THROUGH SUNDAY AS IT ROTATES TO THE EAST OVER CANADA.
502 DAM CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS NEAR ADAK THIS EVENING AND MOVES TO
NEAR ST MICHAEL AS A 497 DAM CLOSED LOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN
TO THE BERING STRAIT AT 494 DAM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS IT RIDES UP
THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE.
700 MB...VERY STRONG WINDS TO 80 KNOTS AROUND THE LOW.
850 MB...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE INTERIOR AREAS WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN AS THE ZERO CELSIUS
ISOTHERM PUSHES ALMOST TO THE BROOKS RANGE. FOLLOWING THE BIG PUSH
OF WARM AIR WE WILL SEE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AS THE
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET TO AROUND 15 CELSIUS BELOW BY MONDAY MORNING.

SEE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS FOR MORE IN DEPTH REGIONAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FOR AKZ202-AKZ203.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ201-AKZ205-AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-
AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ225-AKZ226.

WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ227.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ220-AKZ221.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ217-AKZ218-
AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220.

STORM WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

SDB DEC 11

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1123 AM AKST FRI DEC 2 2011

AKZ218>223-225-226-030830-
SOUTHEASTERN BROOKS RANGE-UPPER KOYUKUK VALLEY-
YUKON FLATS AND SURROUNDING UPLANDS-CENTRAL INTERIOR-
MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY-DELTANA AND TANANA FLATS-DENALI-
EASTERN ALASKA RANGE-
INCLUDING...ARCTIC VILLAGE...WISEMAN...COLDFOOT...
CHANDALAR D.O.T. CAMP...INIAKUK LAKE...ALLAKAKET...HUGHES...
BETTLES...CARIBOU MOUNTAIN...GOBBLERS KNOB...FORT YUKON...
VENETIE...CENTRAL...CIRCLE...STEVENS VILLAGE...BEAVER...
CHALKYITSIK...BIRCH CREEK...CIRCLE HOT SPRINGS...EAGLE SUMMIT...
TWELVEMILE SUMMIT...NENANA...ANDERSON...TANANA...MINTO...
MANLEY HOT SPRINGS...RAMPART...LAKE MINCHUMINA...LIVENGOOD...
FAIRBANKS...FORT WAINWRIGHT...EIELSON AFB...ESTER...NORTH POLE...
MOOSE CREEK...TWO RIVERS...FOX...CHATANIKA...CHENA HOT SPRINGS...
SOURDOUGH CAMP...SALCHA...DELTA JUNCTION...FORT GREELY...
HARDING/BIRCH LAKE...DRY CREEK...DOT LAKE...HEALY LAKE...HEALY...
DENALI NATIONAL PARK...CARLO CREEK...KANTISHNA...MENTASTA LAKE...
BLACK RAPIDS...DONNELLY DOME...TRIMS CAMP...EAGLE TRAIL...
MINERAL LAKE
1123 AM AKST FRI DEC 2 2011

...RAPIDLY DEVELOPING STORM FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
BERING SEA WILL PRODUCE A VARIETY OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS
OVER THE ALASKA INTERIOR...

A LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH OF ADAK
FRIDAY MORNING WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP INTO A MAJOR STORM BY SATURDAY
MORNING AS IT HEADS NORTHWARD INTO THE BERING SEA. THE STORM
CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO NEAR SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

AS THE STORM STRENGTHENS AND MOVES NORTHWARD...HEAVY SNOW
WILL SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE UPPER KOYUKUK VALLEY...
THE BROOKS RANGE WEST OF ARCTIC VILLAGE...THE UPPER YUKON VALLEY
WEST OF FORT YUKON...AND THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. STORM SNOWFALL TOTALS OF UP TO
1 FOOT ARE EXPECTED OVER MANY OF THESE AREAS...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS
UP TO 2 FEET POSSIBLE ALONG SOUTH AND WEST FACING SLOPES OF HIGHER
TERRAIN. OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR FROM THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY
EASTWARD...SMALLER SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.

NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE...STRONG SEA LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS COUPLED
WITH VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE VERY STRONG
CHINOOK WINDS IN THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES WEST OF THE TOK CUTOFF
BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. SOUTH
WINDS 35 TO 55 MPH WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 75 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE
PASSES. LOCAL WIND DAMAGE MAY BE POSSIBLE.

A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
EASTERN ARCTIC COAST SUNDAY EVENING...THEN INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AS
IT MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO. THE RESULTING
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...REINFORCED BY RAPID PRESSURE RISES AND
COLDER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...WILL PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR...AND OVER
MUCH OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR FROM THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY NORTH
AND EAST. THE STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN INTERIOR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING EASTWARD
SUNDAY NIGHT. MANY AREAS...INCLUDING AREAS NEAR FAIRBANKS...CAN
EXPECT TO EXPERIENCE SOUTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH LOCAL
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 TO 55 MPH. OVER HIGHER SUMMITS...WINDS
GUSTING TO 60 MPH OR MORE WILL BE LIKELY. THE STRONG WINDS
WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD DRIFTING AND BLOWING SNOW...MAKING
TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
AND HEAVY DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE LIKELY OVER HIGHER
SUMMITS OF THE DALTON...STEESE AND DALTON HIGHWAYS.

WIND STORMS OF THIS MAGNITUDE ARE RARELY EXPERIENCED IN
THE ALASKA INTERIOR DURING THE WINTER. PEOPLE IN THE BACK
COUNTRY SHOULD SEEK SHELTER OR RETURN TO CITIES AND VILLAGES
BEFORE THESE HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS BEGIN. THE STRONG WINDS
WITH HEAVY DRIFTING SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY MAKE ROADS
AND TRAILS IN THE BACK COUNTRY IMPASSABLE...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND COULD CREATE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS TO
PEOPLE WHO MIGHT BECOME STRANDED. PEOPLE PLANNING TRAVEL IN THE
BACK COUNTRY SHOULD WAIT UNTIL THE STORM ENDS AND WEATHER
CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

PEOPLE SHOULD CHECK FOR FOR THE LATEST WEATHER FORECASTS AND
WARNINGS AT...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/FAIRBANKS

RF DEC 11

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1152 AM AKST FRI DEC 2 2011

MINOR CORRECTION TO TEXT...LAST LINE OF PARAGRAPH 4.

AKZ218>223-225-226-030915-
SOUTHEASTERN BROOKS RANGE-UPPER KOYUKUK VALLEY-
YUKON FLATS AND SURROUNDING UPLANDS-CENTRAL INTERIOR-
MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY-DELTANA AND TANANA FLATS-DENALI-
EASTERN ALASKA RANGE-
INCLUDING...ARCTIC VILLAGE...WISEMAN...COLDFOOT...
CHANDALAR D.O.T. CAMP...INIAKUK LAKE...ALLAKAKET...HUGHES...
BETTLES...CARIBOU MOUNTAIN...GOBBLERS KNOB...FORT YUKON...
VENETIE...CENTRAL...CIRCLE...STEVENS VILLAGE...BEAVER...
CHALKYITSIK...BIRCH CREEK...CIRCLE HOT SPRINGS...EAGLE SUMMIT...
TWELVEMILE SUMMIT...NENANA...ANDERSON...TANANA...MINTO...
MANLEY HOT SPRINGS...RAMPART...LAKE MINCHUMINA...LIVENGOOD...
FAIRBANKS...FORT WAINWRIGHT...EIELSON AFB...ESTER...NORTH POLE...
MOOSE CREEK...TWO RIVERS...FOX...CHATANIKA...CHENA HOT SPRINGS...
SOURDOUGH CAMP...SALCHA...DELTA JUNCTION...FORT GREELY...
HARDING/BIRCH LAKE...DRY CREEK...DOT LAKE...HEALY LAKE...HEALY...
DENALI NATIONAL PARK...CARLO CREEK...KANTISHNA...MENTASTA LAKE...
BLACK RAPIDS...DONNELLY DOME...TRIMS CAMP...EAGLE TRAIL...
MINERAL LAKE
1152 AM AKST FRI DEC 2 2011

...RAPIDLY DEVELOPING STORM FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
BERING SEA WILL PRODUCE A VARIETY OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS
OVER THE ALASKA INTERIOR...

A LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH OF ADAK
FRIDAY MORNING WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP INTO A MAJOR STORM BY SATURDAY
MORNING AS IT HEADS NORTHWARD INTO THE BERING SEA. THE STORM
CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO NEAR SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

AS THE STORM STRENGTHENS AND MOVES NORTHWARD...HEAVY SNOW
WILL SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE UPPER KOYUKUK VALLEY...
THE BROOKS RANGE WEST OF ARCTIC VILLAGE...THE UPPER YUKON VALLEY
WEST OF FORT YUKON...AND THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. STORM SNOWFALL TOTALS OF UP TO
1 FOOT ARE EXPECTED OVER MANY OF THESE AREAS...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS
UP TO 2 FEET POSSIBLE ALONG SOUTH AND WEST FACING SLOPES OF HIGHER
TERRAIN. OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR FROM THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY
EASTWARD...SMALLER SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.

NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE...STRONG SEA LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS COUPLED
WITH VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE VERY STRONG
CHINOOK WINDS IN THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES WEST OF THE TOK CUTOFF
BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. SOUTH
WINDS 35 TO 55 MPH WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 75 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE
PASSES. LOCAL WIND DAMAGE MAY BE POSSIBLE.

A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
EASTERN ARCTIC COAST SUNDAY EVENING...THEN INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AS
IT MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO. THE RESULTING
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...REINFORCED BY RAPID PRESSURE RISES AND
COLDER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...WILL PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR...AND OVER
MUCH OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR FROM THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY NORTH
AND EAST. THE STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN INTERIOR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING EASTWARD
SUNDAY NIGHT. MANY AREAS...INCLUDING AREAS NEAR FAIRBANKS...CAN
EXPECT TO EXPERIENCE SOUTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH LOCAL
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 TO 55 MPH. OVER HIGHER SUMMITS...WINDS
GUSTING TO 60 MPH OR MORE WILL BE LIKELY. THE STRONG WINDS
WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD DRIFTING AND BLOWING SNOW...MAKING
TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
AND HEAVY DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE LIKELY OVER HIGHER
SUMMITS OF THE DALTON...STEESE AND ELLIOTT HIGHWAYS.

WIND STORMS OF THIS MAGNITUDE ARE RARELY EXPERIENCED IN
THE ALASKA INTERIOR DURING THE WINTER. PEOPLE IN THE BACK
COUNTRY SHOULD SEEK SHELTER OR RETURN TO CITIES AND VILLAGES
BEFORE THESE HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS BEGIN. THE STRONG WINDS
WITH HEAVY DRIFTING SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY MAKE ROADS
AND TRAILS IN THE BACK COUNTRY IMPASSABLE...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND COULD CREATE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS TO
PEOPLE WHO MIGHT BECOME STRANDED. PEOPLE PLANNING TRAVEL IN THE
BACK COUNTRY SHOULD WAIT UNTIL THE STORM ENDS AND WEATHER
CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

PEOPLE SHOULD CHECK FOR FOR THE LATEST WEATHER FORECASTS AND
WARNINGS AT...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/FAIRBANKS

RF DEC 11