Brisk Wind Advisory 47, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
305 AM AKST TUE FEB 8 2011

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN
THE ECMWF BECOMES THE OUTLIER WITH LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA.

ALOFT...RIDGE ALONG SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE COAST EXTENDS NORTH AND
WEST ACROSS THE SEWARD PENINSULA. CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO BRISTOL BAY TUESDAY EVENING. RIDGE
WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY AS THE LOW WORKS ITS WAY NORTH AND WEAKENS
LEAVING A TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH
WILL SLIDE EAST OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WITH A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE...1044 MB HIGH OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT EAST. A 1012 LOW IN THE NORTHERN BERING STRAIT WILL DRIFT
EAST OVER THE ARCTIC COAST. 982 MB LOW NEAR SAND POINT TUESDAY
MORNING WILL MOVE INTO BRISTOL BAY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TO NEAR
BETHEL TUESDAY EVENING AT 998 MB. THE LOW WILL THEN CONTINUE NORTH
TO SELAWIK WEDNESDAY MORNING AND TO 100 NM SOUTH OF DEADHORSE BY
THURSDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL EXTEND FROM
ANAKTUVUK PASS TO TANANA TO COOK INLET WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN
FROM DEADHORSE TO NENANA TO COOK INLET WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FROM
CHALKYITSIK TO NABESNA BY THURSDAY MORNING.

NORTH SLOPE...WEAK TROUGH ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST WILL BRING
CLOUDS WITH LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES BEGINNING LATER TUESDAY. LOW
MOVING UP THE WEST COAST WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA JUST SOUTH OF
DEADHORSE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTENSIVE
SNOWFALL ACROSS ALL THE ZONES. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED IN ZONE 205 WITH 6 TO 10 INCHES.

WESTERN ALASKA...AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A MIX
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT
MOST AREAS TO SEE SNOW LATER THIS MORNING WITH AREAS SOUTH OF THE
SEWARD PENINSULA SEEING A MIX OF DRIZZLE...RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCALIZED AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN OR
DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. FROM THE SEWARD
PENINSULA NORTH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE AREA NORTH OF UNALAKLEET EAST OF NOME
SOUTH OF RED DOG AND WEST OF GALENA. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL
DEVELOP AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH TO THE ARCTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND COLD AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA
RANGE WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY THOUGH STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD
BE THIS AFTERNOON. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP AREAS JUST NORTH OF
THE ALASKA RANGE RELATIVELY PRECIPITATION FREE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN CONTINUE EAST INTO THE FAIRBANKS AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN TO THE BORDER BY THURSDAY MORNING. AROUND 2
INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MOST AREAS WITH 2 TO 8 INCHES
POSSIBLE IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS
RANGE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ225-AKZ226-AKZ227.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ205-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ212-
AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ217.

WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ218-AKZ219.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220.
&&

SDB FEB 11