Brisk Wind Advisory 46, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
338 PM AKST MON FEB 7 2011

UPDATED TO ADD BRISK WIND ADVISORY TO MARINE ZONE 230

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...RIDGE OVER NORTH PACIFIC WITH SOME EXTENSION CURRENTLY
NORTHWARD OVER EASTERN AK WHILE A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
BERING SEA AND CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC WILL DRIFT EAST AFTER MID
WEEK. WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING NORTH OVER WESTERN ALASKA TONIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY BUT ALSO WEAKENING. STRONG LOW APPROACHING 50 N
LATITUDE WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE EASTERN AK PENINSULA AND INNER
BRISTOL BAY TUE AND TUE NIGHT WEAKENING AND BECOMING A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THEREAFTER.

SURFACE...1040 MB HIGH OVER WESTERN CANADA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
INTERIOR WILL DRIFT EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN CHUKCHI SEA WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH TUE AND
DISSIPATE. 974 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE TO
THE ALASKA PENINSULA 3PM TUE AT 992 MB THEN TO 120 MILES NORTHEAST
OF BETHEL 3AM WED AT 998 MB AND TO 180 MILES NORTHWEST OF
FAIRBANKS 3PM WED AT 1000 MB. WARM FRONT WILL MOVE TO BETHEL TO
ANVIK TO MCGRATH AT 3PM TUE AND THEN TO THE SOUTH SLOPES OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN BROOKS RANGE 3PM WED BUT WEAKENING. COLD
FRONT FROM LOW TO COLD BAY 3AM WED AND FROM LOW TO MCGRATH TO
BETHEL 3PM WED.

MODELS...NAM AND GFS AGREE FAIRLY WELL ON POSITION AND STRENGTH OF
SURFACE LOW AND FEATURES ALOFT THROUGH 12Z WED...BUT THEREAFTER
GFS MOVES IT TOO FAST TO THE NORTHEAST...COMPARED TO NAM AND
EUROPEAN MODELS...SO HAVE DISCOUNTED GFS POSITION AT 3PM
WED...INSTEAD HOLDING THE LOW FARTHER WEST AT THAT TIME. IN THE
EXTENDED RANGE OF FRI THROUGH MON...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
THE UPPER TROUGH LOCKED IN OVER EASTERN AK WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF
-25C TO -30C.

NORTH SLOPE...THE WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING NORTH WILL SPREAD SOME
LIGHT SNOW NORTH OVER WESTERN ZONES TONIGHT AND TUE BUT ENDING
FROM THE SOUTH BEFORE TUE EVENING. TUE NIGHT SNOW FROM THE WARM
FRONT MOVING NORTH OVER WESTERN AK WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER ZONE
205...ON WED IT WILL SPREAD OVER 201 202 203 IN THEMORNING AND THE
EASTERN ZONES IN THE PM. EXPECT AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WINDS
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO ONLY PRODUCE
SPOTTY BLOWING SNOW.

WESTERN ALASKA...SOME LIGHT SNOW AND LOCAL BLOWING SNOW MOVING
NORTH OVER THE COASTAL ZONES TONIGHT AND LINGERING IN THE NORTH
ON TUE. THE LOW IN THE NORTH PCIFIC WILL SPREAD STRONG WARM
ADVECTION NORTH OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED...AND HAVE
UPGRADED THE WATCHES FOR ZONES 210 212 214 215 AND 216 FOR WINTER
STORM CONDITIONS...EXPECTING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN 24 HOURS COULD
REACH 6 INCHES IN THE WEST AND 8 INCHES IN THE EAST. SNOW MIXING
WITH RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN WEDNESDAY OVER ZONES 214 AND
215...POSSIBLY 212 AND SOUTHERN 216. HAVE ADDED WINTER STORM
WATCHES FOR ZONES 209 AND 217 TUE NIGHT AND WED AS IT LOOKS LIKE
DECENT ENOUGH SNOWFALL THESE SONES...THOUGH FOR 209 THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS LOOK TO FALL EAST OF KOTZEBUE. LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF SNOW
MOVING OVER ZONE 227 TUE THROUGH WED...AND SUSPECT LITTLE IF ANY
LIQUID PRECIP OR AT WORST JUST ADVISORY LEVELS.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS ALASKA
RANGE PICKING UP TUE AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS
DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHIELDING THE SOUTHERN ZONES FROM PRECIPITATION
THROUGH WED.. ESPECIALLY ZONES 222 223 224 225 226. SNOW
SPREADING ACROSS 219 AND 220 TUE EVENING AND FAR WESTERN
221..CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY. AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 2
INCHES...THOUGH UP TO 4 INCHES WESTERN ZONE 219 THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ225-AKZ226-AKZ227.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ210-AKZ212-AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216.

WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ209-AKZ211-AKZ217.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ230.
&&

JL FEB 11