Brisk Wind Advisory 10, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1251 PM AKST WED JAN 5 2011

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR: MODELS AGREE WITH BUILDING RIDGE OVER NORTHERN ALASKA
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON FRI AFTERNOON...THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL EXTEND NORTH OVER KODIAK ISLAND TO THE CHUKCHI SEA NORTH OF
WAINWRIGHT. BY SAT AFTERNOON...THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OVER
NORTHERN ALASKA WITH CENTER OF 568 DM ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
KODIAK. FURTHER BUILDING OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL OCCUR INTO THE MID
RANGE. ANOTHER RIDGE OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WED AFTERNOON WILL BE
PUSHED NORTH THU NIGHT AS LOW STRENGTHENS WEST OF BANKS ISLAND. BY
SAT AFTERNOON...THE LOW WILL BE 518 DM NORTH OF BANKS ISLAND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA THU.

SURFACE: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS TO REPLACE THE CURRENT BROAD LOW PRESSURE. IN THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS...LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY TO 971 MB EARLY
THU MORNING...THEN WEAKEN TO 1003 MB AS IT MOVES NORTH TO THE
CHUKOTSK PENINSULA BY EARLY SAT MORNING. A COUPLE OF FRONTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OVER SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND
THU THROUGH FRI. ANOTHER STRONGER LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN BERING SEA ON SAT.

NORTH SLOPE: FLURRIES AND FOG WILL BE THE GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH
SAT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

WEST COAST: SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL ENTER A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN BEGINNING THU AND CONTINUING INTO SUN. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE ISLAND BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING UNTIL FRI EVENING. ON SAT...ANOTHER WEATHER EVENT
PRODUCED BY STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL
AGAIN INCREASE WINDS...TEMPERATURES MAY BE TOO WARM FOR A
BLIZZARD. ON FRI...ZONES 211 AND 214...IN PARTICULAR THE COAST OF
214...MAY ALSO HAVE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...LOW OVER
NORTHWEST ALASKA MAY PRODUCE SNOWFALL OF AROUND 1 INCH IN THE
NORTHWEST ZONES. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL END THE SNOW ON THU.

INTERIOR: LOW PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR MAY PRODUCE ACCUMULATIONS
OF UP TO 1 INCH TONIGHT THROUGH THU. AFTER WARDS...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BECOME THE DOMINATE WEATHER PATTERN.

MID RANGE: THE MID RANGE LOOKS TO BE A RECORD BREAKER FOR JANUARY
500 MB HEIGHTS. THIS WOULD MEAN DRY WEATHER AND VERY STEEP
TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS FOR NORTHERN ALASKA IN THE MID RANGE. THE
RECORD FOR BARROW IS 566 DM SET IN 1991. MODELS FORECAST RECORD
HEIGHTS FOR JANUARY AND CLOSE TO ALL TIME RECORD HEIGHTS. BY
12Z/TUE...THE GFS BUILDS A 582 DM CENTER OVER NORTHWEST ALASKA AND
THE ECMWF BUILDS A 585 DM HIGH. CLIMATOLOGY INDICATES THAT A NEAR
ALL TIME RECORD 500 MB HEIGHT SET IN JANUARY TO BE VERY UNLIKELY.
THE ALL TIME RECORD FOR BARROW WAS SET IN AUGUST 2002 AT 5870 DM.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FOR AKZ213.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.
&&

DA JAN 11