Small Craft Advisory 93, NWS Anchorage, AK

778 
FZAK52 PAFC 022349
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST WED FEB 2 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-031500-
400 PM AKST WED FEB 2 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE EASTERN BERING SEA
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A 981 MB LOW 180 NM NORTHEAST OF SHEMYA
WILL MOVE TO 200 NM WEST OF GAMBELL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT 1002 MB.

$$

PKZ150-031500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST WED FEB 2 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE COAST. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-031500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST WED FEB 2 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES E OF
THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...W WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING
VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-031500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST WED FEB 2 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE EVENING. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-031500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST WED FEB 2 2011

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-031500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST WED FEB 2 2011

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. 
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-031500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST WED FEB 2 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-031500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST WED FEB 2 2011

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-031500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST WED FEB 2 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT BERING SIDE...16 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-031500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST WED FEB 2 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-031500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST WED FEB 2 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14
FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-031500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST WED FEB 2 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-031500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST WED FEB 2 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

899 
FZAK52 PAFC 031253
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST THU FEB 3 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-040300-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 3 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 985 MB LOW 250 NM NORTHEAST OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 250 NM WEST OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND THU NIGHT AT 998 MB AND THEN TO THE CHUKCHI SEA
BY FRI EVENING. A WEATHER FRONT MOVES TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS FROM
THE SOUTH THU NIGHT AND TO THE AKPEN BY SAT MORNING.
$$

PKZ150-040300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST THU FEB 3 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-040300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST THU FEB 3 2011

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...E WIND 15 KT
INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-040300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST THU FEB 3 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-040300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST THU FEB 3 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-040300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST THU FEB 3 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 20 KT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-040300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST THU FEB 3 2011

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT BERING SIDE...17 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-040300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST THU FEB 3 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-040300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST THU FEB 3 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT BERING SIDE...17 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT BERING SIDE...18 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-040300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST THU FEB 3 2011

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-040300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST THU FEB 3 2011

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13
FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT FROM SHEMYA W. SEAS
11 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT EXCEPT N 20 KT FROM SHEMYA W. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-040300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST THU FEB 3 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-040300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST THU FEB 3 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
515 PM AKST TUE FEB 1 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ALASKA REGION WITH
A RIDGE AXIS THAT STRETCHES FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF CALIFORNIA TO
THE EASTERN NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. A SHARP TROUGH DIGS FROM RUSSIA
TOWARDS THE ALASKA PENINSULA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THAT MOISTURE IS SURGING NORTHWARD TOWARDS SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA. FURTHER WEST...A RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE BERING WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ALEUTAINS.

.AT THE SURFACE...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHWARD OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS IN THE NORTH PACIFIC STREAMING TOWARDS THE GULF OF ALASKA.
THE
KENAI LOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT THERE HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
WITH THIS SYETEM FOR STEADY SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
THIS MORNING. ALONG THE GULF COAST AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE KENAI
PENINSULA...THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH WARM GULF AIR FOR A RAIN AND SNOW
MIX. MEANWHILE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS
IS GRADUALLY PUSHING COOLER AIR INTO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. A 978 MB
LOW SOUTHEAST OF ADAK IS BRINGING A RAIN SNOW MIX AND GALE WINDS TO
THE EAST AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE POSITIONS OF THE LOWS SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF ALASKA. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE DETAILS OF
THESE
LOWS AND HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AS THEY INTERACT WITH THE
COMPLEX COASTAL TOPOGRAPHY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ECMWF
APPEARS TO BE CAPTURING THE DETAILS OF THESE LOWS WITH THE GREATEST
ACCURACY AND WAS USED FOR THE SOUTHCENTRAL FORECAST.  OUT WEST THE
GFS
CONTINUES WITH THE BEST RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ON THE EAST
PROGRESSION
OF THE BERING RIDGE AND NORTH PROGRESSION OF CENTRAL ALEUTAIN LOW.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MUCH OF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE SOUTH
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. DOWNSLOPING WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL SO ANOTHER 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE VARIETY OF TRACKS OF THE LOWS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
FAVOR SNOW TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE SUSITNA VALLEY WITH
SOME AREAS RECEIVING 10 TO 14 INCHES OF FRESH SNOW. ALONG THE COAST
AND WEST KENAI PENINSULA ...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE.
SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO TAPER ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AS STRONG
DOWNSLOPING OCCURS DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW....WHILE ON THE
OTHER SIDE OF THE CHUGACH RANGE ANOTHER FOOT OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN
THOMPSON PASS. DRY AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO SOUTHCENTRAL
THURSDAY...LIMITING MOST OF THE SNOW TO FLURRIES OR SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH
OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPILLOVER SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHCENTRAL LOWS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN ALASKA PENINSULA.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...A LOW SOUTHWEST OF ADAK IS EXPECTED TO REACH
ITS 977 MB PEAK INTENSITY THIS EVENING AS IT CROSSES FROM THE NORTH
PACIFIC INTO THE BERING. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH SNOW ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND A MIX ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THE WINDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...120 132 172 175 176
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...160
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ELN JAN 11