Gale Warning 165, NWS Anchorage, AK

201 
FZAK51 PAFC 020825 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1120 PM AKST TUE FEB 1 2011

UPDATED ZONES 129 132

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-021500-
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 1 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 990 MB LOW 30 NM SE OF HOMER WILL MOVE INLAND AND DISSIPATE TUE
NIGHT. A 987 MB LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTH TO 10 NM NE OF MIDDLETON
ISLAND WED AFTERNOON AND OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA AT 989 MB WED
EVENING. 
$$

PKZ120-021500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 1 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. NEAR THE
COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-021500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 1 2011

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER
SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-021500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 1 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE.
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-021500-
PASSAGE CANAL
1120 PM AKST TUE FEB 1 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-021500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 1 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES
DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT EXCEPT 7 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. FREEZING SPRAY W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 13
FT EXCEPT 7 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 13 FT EXCEPT 6 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-021500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
1120 PM AKST TUE FEB 1 2011

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. N OF DANGEROUS CAPE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS
11 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. S OF DANGEROUS CAPE...WINDS BECOMING W 35 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-021500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 1 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES
DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY DEVELOPING 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-021500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 1 2011

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
SNOW.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. SNOW.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-021500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 1 2011

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT TOWARDS MORNING. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 4 FT TOWARDS MORNING. SNOW.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING. SNOW.
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

867 
FZAK51 PAFC 021253
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST WED FEB 2 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-030300-
400 AM AKST WED FEB 2 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 988 MB LOW NEAR GORE POINT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
WED AFTERNOON. A 986 MB LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE TO 200 NM
SOUTHWEST OF YAKUTAT AT 986 MB WED AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL MERGE
WITH THE FIRST LOW WED EVENING AND DRIFT TO 120 NM SOUTHWEST OF
YAKUTAT.
$$

PKZ120-030300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST WED FEB 2 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. W OF CAPE CLEARE...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT
BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-030300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST WED FEB 2 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER
SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-030300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST WED FEB 2 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-030300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST WED FEB 2 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.  
$$

PKZ130-030300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST WED FEB 2 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT EXCEPT 6 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT EXCEPT 5 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-030300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST WED FEB 2 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. N OF DANGEROUS CAPE...NW WIND 10 KT
BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-030300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST WED FEB 2 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-030300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST WED FEB 2 2011

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. SNOW.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ141-030300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST WED FEB 2 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.THU...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
315 PM AKST TUE FEB 1 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ALASKA REGION WITH
A RIDGE AXIS THAT STRETCHES FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF CALIFORNIA TO
THE EASTERN NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. A SHARP TROUGH DIGS FROM RUSSIA
TOWARDS THE ALASKA PENINSULA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THAT MOISTURE IS SURGING NORTHWARD TOWARDS SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA. FURTHER WEST...A RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE BERING WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ALEUTAINS.

...AT THE SURFACE...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHWARD OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS IN THE NORTH PACIFIC STREAMING TOWARDS THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE
KENAI LOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT THERE HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
WITH THIS SYETEM FOR STEADY SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
THIS MORNING. ALONG THE GULF COAST AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE KENAI
PENINSULA...THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH WARM GULF AIR FOR A RAIN AND SNOW
MIX. MEANWHILE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS
IS GRADUALLY PUSHING COOLER AIR INTO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. A 978 MB
LOW SOUTHEAST OF ADAK IS BRINGING A RAIN SNOW MIX AND GALE WINDS TO
THE EAST AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE POSITIONS OF THE LOWS SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF ALASKA. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE DETAILS OF THESE
LOWS AND HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AS THEY INTERACT WITH THE
COMPLEX COASTAL TOPOGRAPHY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ECMWF
APPEARS TO BE CAPTURING THE DETAILS OF THESE LOWS WITH THE GREATEST
ACCURACY AND WAS USED FOR THE SOUTHCENTRAL FORECAST.  OUT WEST THE GFS
CONTINUES WITH THE BEST RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ON THE EAST PROGRESSION
OF THE BERING RIDGE AND NORTH PROGRESSION OF CENTRAL ALEUTAIN LOW.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MUCH OF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE SOUTH
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. DOWNSLOPING WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL SO ANOTHER 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE VARIETY OF TRACKS OF THE LOWS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
FAVOR SNOW TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE SUSITNA VALLEY WITH
SOME AREAS RECEIVING 10 TO 14 INCHES OF FRESH SNOW. ALONG THE COAST
AND WEST KENAI PENINSULA ...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE. SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO TAPER ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AS STRONG
DOWNSLOPING OCCURS DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW....WHILE ON THE
OTHER SIDE OF THE CHUGACH RANGE ANOTHER FOOT OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN
THOMPSON PASS. DRY AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO SOUTHCENTRAL
THURSDAY...LIMITING MOST OF THE SNOW TO FLURRIES OR SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPILLOVER SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHCENTRAL LOWS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN ALASKA PENINSULA.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...A LOW SOUTHWEST OF ADAK IS EXPECTED TO REACH
ITS 977 MB PEAK INTENSITY THIS EVENING AS IT CROSSES FROM THE NORTH
PACIFIC INTO THE BERING. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH SNOW ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND A MIX ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THE WINDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...120 132 172 175 176
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...160
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ELN JAN 11