Small Craft Advisory 862, NWS Anchorage, AK

483 
FZAK52 PAFC 271209
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 27 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-280300-
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 27 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 979 MB LOW 225 NM NORTHEAST OF SHEMYA DRIFTS 260 NM NORTHWEST OF
ADAK AT 983 MB SUNDAY EVENING...THEN MOVES TO 115 NM NORTH OF ADAK AT
987 MB BEFORE DISSIPATING MON AFTERNOON. A 977 MB LOW 50 NM EAST OF
SAND POINT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA WHILE WEAKENING TO 978 MB
MON AFTERNOON. A 988 MB NORTHWEST PACIFIC LOW MOVES TO 475 NM SOUTH
OF SHEMYA LATE SUN NIGHT...THEN MOVES TO 180 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR
AT 973 MB LATE MON NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ150-280300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 27 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-280300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 27 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-280300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 27 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-280300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 27 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY 
E OF PORT MOLLER. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-280300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 27 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-280300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 27 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-280300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 27 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-280300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 27 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT BERING SIDE...20 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT BERING SIDE...18 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED AND THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

PKZ175-280300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 27 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT BERING SIDE...24 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT BERING SIDE...21 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT BERING SIDE...19 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-280300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 27 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-280300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 27 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE 40 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 18 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-280300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 27 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
130 PM AKST SAT NOV 26 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEKEND THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS AS
THE STATE TRANSITIONS FROM ONE STORM SYSTEM TO THE NEXT. A COLD CORE
UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL RESIDES OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WHILE
A TRANSITORY RIDGE RACES TOWARDS SOUTHWEST ALASKA. OUT WEST...A FRONT
IS NEAR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND PRIBILOFS WHICH IS STEMMING FROM A
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE FAR WESTERN BERING. SATELLITE AND
SURFACE OBS ARE INDICATING THAT A TRIPLE POINT LOW IS DEVELOPING NEAR
DUTCH HARBOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE MODELS AGAIN AGREE ON THE OVERALL PATTERN BUT
DIFFER ON THE DETAILS AS THE LOWS PROGRESS EAST. THE FIRST CHALLENGE
WILL BE THE TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS.
WE HAVE PREFERRED THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT AND DEVELOPING
LOW OF THE NAM...BUT IT APPEARS TOO FAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING BUT SEEM TO NOT CAPTURE THE
COMPLEXITY OF THE FRONT INTERACTING WITH THE TERRAIN THE WAY THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM DOES. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE MAINLY GONE WITH
THE GFS/EC SOLUTION BUT HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
MORE COMPLEX STRUCTURE THAT WE HAVE COME TO EXPECT WITH THIS TYPE OF
SYSTEM.

THE PICTURE AGAIN IS A BIT MUDDLED AS THE OCCLUDED LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST TOWARD PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS
TIME...DID A BLEND OF THE INHERITED FORECAST WITH THE GFS WHICH
RESULTED IN A FORECAST THAT CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE ENSEMBLE MEAN.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE
EASTERN DOMAIN MAINLY INVOLVE STRATUS AND THE CHANCE OF FOG AROUND
SOUTHCENTRAL OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. STRATUS WAS VERY
SLOW TO BURN OFF IN THE MATANUSKA VALLEY THIS MORNING AND SUSPECT
THAT IT WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO
PREVENT FOG FROM SETTLING IN...BUT WILL BE MENTIONING THAT
POSSIBILITY MAINLY ALONG KNIK ARM DOWN COOK INLET THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS INVADE SOUTHCENTRAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF THE TRIPLE POINT LOW. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF SNOW OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE STATE
UNTIL LATER ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROF FINALLY APPROACHES THE
REGION. THE EXCEPTION ARE COASTAL COMMUNITIES INCLUDING
KODIAK...WHERE THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH
THIS STORM. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THIS POSSIBILITY KEEPING IN
MIND A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE POSITION OF THE LOW TO THE WEST WOULD
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND NO SNOW. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE MODELS DEVELOPING THE TRIPLE POINT...WILL STAY AWAY FROM AN
ADVISORY FOR KODIAK ISLAND UNTIL THE PICTURE BECOMES A LITTLE MORE
CLEAR.

.SOUTHWEST AK AND BERING SEA...THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR WILL SEE VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY
CONCERN AT THIS POINT IS WIND CHILLS NEAR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. RECORD
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING WINDS RESULTING IN THE
DANGEROUS CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO INVADE THE REGION. THIS WILL BE
THE CASE UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING WHEN THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND SPREADS SNOW OVER THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE.

FARTHER WEST...MOST OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER IS ALONG THE ALEUTIANS AND
BERING SEA WHERE A FRONT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE PRIBILOFS.
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS HAVE NOT DEVELOPED AS THOUGHT...SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BOUNDARY HAS NOT BEEN QUITE
AS HEAVY. THE SOURCE OF MOISTURE QUICKLY BECOMES CUT OFF THIS EVENING
AS THE TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF.
THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SNOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY BECOMING SHOWERS
THROUGH TONIGHT AND THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. THE REMNANTS OF THE
PARENT LOW TO THE WEST SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MEANWHILE...A POTENT NORTH PACIFIC LOW DEVELOPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH
EYES FOR THE PENINSULA BY TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL LIKELY BE A PATTERN
CHANGER FOR MUCH OF THE STATE AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF RETROGRADES
BACK TO THE WESTERN INTERIOR ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR TO STREAM
NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHCENTRAL. THIS WARMER AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL AROUND THE STATE AFTER
NEARLY 3 WEEKS OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE
RAIN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE COAST WHILE THE INTERIOR STAYS JUST COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY SINCE RAIN AFTER AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF EXTREME COLD RESULTS IN VERY TREACHEROUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED...WATCHING A PATTERN CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE BEING PUSHED UP TOWARD SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. THE EC AND GFS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISING A SIMILAR
PICTURE. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL WARM UP
RESULTING IN RAIN...BUT JUST INLAND AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS THE PRECIP
WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND WILL BE VERY HEAVY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 181
MARINE...STORM WARNING 185
         GALES 120 121 130 132 138 351 352 150 155 160 165 170 171
               172 175 176 179 411 412 414
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AB NOV 11

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
135 PM AKST SAT NOV 26 2011

AKZ125-131-270600-

...PATTERN CHANGE COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT SNOW AROUND PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND EARLY NEXT WEEK...

A VERY PERSISTENT COLD PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE SHIFT IN THE PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A MORE FAVORABLE SETUP FOR
HEAVY SNOWFALL AROUND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.

A SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THEN A STRONG LOW DEVELOPS AROUND THE ALASKA PENINSULA
TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A LONG FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO
POINT RIGHT TOWARD SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH OR
RISE ABOVE FREEZING IN MANY AREAS ALONG THE COAST RESULTING IN RAIN.
WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN JUST BELOW FREEZING...THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND WILL LIKELY BE VERY HEAVY.

AT THIS TIME...THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO FALL BETWEEN
TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STAY TUNED TO THE FORECASTS
LATER THIS WEEKEND AS THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION
OF THE DEVELOPING LOW AND THE SUBSEQUENT POSITION OF THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

AB NOV 11

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
135 PM AKST SAT NOV 26 2011

AKZ125-131-272000-

...PATTERN CHANGE COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT SNOW AROUND PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND EARLY NEXT WEEK...

A VERY PERSISTENT COLD PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE SHIFT IN THE PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A MORE FAVORABLE SETUP FOR
HEAVY SNOWFALL AROUND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.

A SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THEN A STRONG LOW DEVELOPS AROUND THE ALASKA PENINSULA
TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A LONG FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO
POINT RIGHT TOWARD SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH OR
RISE ABOVE FREEZING IN MANY AREAS ALONG THE COAST RESULTING IN RAIN.
WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN JUST BELOW FREEZING...THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND WILL LIKELY BE VERY HEAVY.

AT THIS TIME...THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO FALL BETWEEN
TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STAY TUNED TO THE FORECASTS
LATER THIS WEEKEND AS THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION
OF THE DEVELOPING LOW AND THE SUBSEQUENT POSITION OF THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

AB NOV 11