Gale Warning 904, NWS Anchorage, AK

883 
FZAK52 PAFC 271543 AAA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
640 AM AKST SUN NOV 27 2011

UPDATED ZONES 155 160 165 

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-280300-
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 27 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 979 MB LOW 225 NM NORTHEAST OF SHEMYA DRIFTS 260 NM NORTHWEST OF
ADAK AT 983 MB SUNDAY EVENING...THEN MOVES TO 115 NM NORTH OF ADAK AT
987 MB BEFORE DISSIPATING MON AFTERNOON. A 977 MB LOW 50 NM EAST OF
SAND POINT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA WHILE WEAKENING TO 978 MB
MON AFTERNOON. A 988 MB NORTHWEST PACIFIC LOW MOVES TO 475 NM SOUTH
OF SHEMYA LATE SUN NIGHT...THEN MOVES TO 180 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR
AT 973 MB LATE MON NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ150-280300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 27 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-280300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
640 AM AKST SUN NOV 27 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-280300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
640 AM AKST SUN NOV 27 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-280300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
640 AM AKST SUN NOV 27 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS. 
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY 
E OF PORT MOLLER. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-280300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 27 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-280300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 27 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-280300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 27 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-280300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 27 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT BERING SIDE...20 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT BERING SIDE...18 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED AND THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

PKZ175-280300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 27 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT BERING SIDE...24 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT BERING SIDE...21 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT BERING SIDE...19 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-280300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 27 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-280300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 27 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE 40 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 18 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-280300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 27 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

073 
FZAK52 PAFC 280005
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 27 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-281500-
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 27 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 982 MB LOW 310 NM NORTHWEST OF ADAK WILL MOVE TO 90 NM NORTHWEST 
OF ADAK MON AFTERNOON AT 988 MB AND THEN BE ABSORBED BY A DEVELOPING
PACIFIC LOW MON NIGHT. A 1005 MB LOW 700 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA WILL
DEEPEN TO 970 MB AS IT MOVES TO 200 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DUTCH
HARBOR MON NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL THEN TRACK TO 80 NM NORTHEAST OF
DUTCH HARBOR TUE AFTERNOON AT 976 MB. 

$$

PKZ150-281500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 27 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE COAST. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

PKZ155-281500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 27 2011

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM
THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.WED AND THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-281500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 27 2011

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-281500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 27 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ180-281500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 27 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ170-281500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 27 2011

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

PKZ171-281500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 27 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ172-281500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 27 2011

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT BERING SIDE...20 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT BERING SIDE...19 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. E OF
SEGUAM ISLAND...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-281500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 27 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT BERING SIDE...22 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-281500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 27 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-281500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 27 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ179-281500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 27 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

654 
FZAK52 PAFC 281152
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST MON NOV 28 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-290300-
400 AM AKST MON NOV 28 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 983 MB LOW 200 NM NORTH OF ADAK MOVES TO 65 NM NORTH OF ADAK MON
EVENING AT 987 MB AND THEN IS ABSORBED BY A DEVELOPING PACIFIC LOW
MON NIGHT. A 989 MB LOW 475 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA DEEPENS TO 973 MB AS
IT MOVES TO 265 NM SOUTHWEST OF DUTCH HARBOR LATE MON NIGHT...THEN
WEAKENS TO 985 MB AS IT MOVES 90 NM SOUTH OF CAPE NEWENHAM LATE TUE
NIGHT. A 981 MB LOW FORMS 140 NM WEST OF ATTU ISLAND LATE TUE NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-290300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST MON NOV 28 2011

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-290300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST MON NOV 28 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT BUILDING TO 23 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-290300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST MON NOV 28 2011

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-290300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST MON NOV 28 2011

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-290300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST MON NOV 28 2011

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ170-290300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST MON NOV 28 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT
BERING SIDE...24 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-290300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST MON NOV 28 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO 
50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
35 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-290300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST MON NOV 28 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT BERING SIDE...18 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...BERING SIDE...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PACIFIC SIDE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT BERING SIDE...14 FT
PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-290300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST MON NOV 28 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-290300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST MON NOV 28 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-290300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST MON NOV 28 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-290300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST MON NOV 28 2011

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
130 PM AKST SAT NOV 26 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEKEND THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS AS
THE STATE TRANSITIONS FROM ONE STORM SYSTEM TO THE NEXT. A COLD CORE
UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL RESIDES OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WHILE
A TRANSITORY RIDGE RACES TOWARDS SOUTHWEST ALASKA. OUT WEST...A FRONT
IS NEAR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND PRIBILOFS WHICH IS STEMMING FROM A
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE FAR WESTERN BERING. SATELLITE AND
SURFACE OBS ARE INDICATING THAT A TRIPLE POINT LOW IS DEVELOPING NEAR
DUTCH HARBOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE MODELS AGAIN AGREE ON THE OVERALL PATTERN BUT
DIFFER ON THE DETAILS AS THE LOWS PROGRESS EAST. THE FIRST CHALLENGE
WILL BE THE TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS.
WE HAVE PREFERRED THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT AND DEVELOPING
LOW OF THE NAM...BUT IT APPEARS TOO FAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING BUT SEEM TO NOT CAPTURE THE
COMPLEXITY OF THE FRONT INTERACTING WITH THE TERRAIN THE WAY THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM DOES. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE MAINLY GONE WITH
THE GFS/EC SOLUTION BUT HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
MORE COMPLEX STRUCTURE THAT WE HAVE COME TO EXPECT WITH THIS TYPE OF
SYSTEM.

THE PICTURE AGAIN IS A BIT MUDDLED AS THE OCCLUDED LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST TOWARD PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS
TIME...DID A BLEND OF THE INHERITED FORECAST WITH THE GFS WHICH
RESULTED IN A FORECAST THAT CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE ENSEMBLE MEAN.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE
EASTERN DOMAIN MAINLY INVOLVE STRATUS AND THE CHANCE OF FOG AROUND
SOUTHCENTRAL OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. STRATUS WAS VERY
SLOW TO BURN OFF IN THE MATANUSKA VALLEY THIS MORNING AND SUSPECT
THAT IT WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO
PREVENT FOG FROM SETTLING IN...BUT WILL BE MENTIONING THAT
POSSIBILITY MAINLY ALONG KNIK ARM DOWN COOK INLET THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS INVADE SOUTHCENTRAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF THE TRIPLE POINT LOW. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF SNOW OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE STATE
UNTIL LATER ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROF FINALLY APPROACHES THE
REGION. THE EXCEPTION ARE COASTAL COMMUNITIES INCLUDING
KODIAK...WHERE THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH
THIS STORM. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THIS POSSIBILITY KEEPING IN
MIND A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE POSITION OF THE LOW TO THE WEST WOULD
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND NO SNOW. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE MODELS DEVELOPING THE TRIPLE POINT...WILL STAY AWAY FROM AN
ADVISORY FOR KODIAK ISLAND UNTIL THE PICTURE BECOMES A LITTLE MORE
CLEAR.

.SOUTHWEST AK AND BERING SEA...THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR WILL SEE VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY
CONCERN AT THIS POINT IS WIND CHILLS NEAR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. RECORD
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING WINDS RESULTING IN THE
DANGEROUS CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO INVADE THE REGION. THIS WILL BE
THE CASE UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING WHEN THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND SPREADS SNOW OVER THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE.

FARTHER WEST...MOST OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER IS ALONG THE ALEUTIANS AND
BERING SEA WHERE A FRONT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE PRIBILOFS.
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS HAVE NOT DEVELOPED AS THOUGHT...SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BOUNDARY HAS NOT BEEN QUITE
AS HEAVY. THE SOURCE OF MOISTURE QUICKLY BECOMES CUT OFF THIS EVENING
AS THE TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF.
THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SNOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY BECOMING SHOWERS
THROUGH TONIGHT AND THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. THE REMNANTS OF THE
PARENT LOW TO THE WEST SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MEANWHILE...A POTENT NORTH PACIFIC LOW DEVELOPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH
EYES FOR THE PENINSULA BY TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL LIKELY BE A PATTERN
CHANGER FOR MUCH OF THE STATE AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF RETROGRADES
BACK TO THE WESTERN INTERIOR ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR TO STREAM
NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHCENTRAL. THIS WARMER AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL AROUND THE STATE AFTER
NEARLY 3 WEEKS OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE
RAIN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE COAST WHILE THE INTERIOR STAYS JUST COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY SINCE RAIN AFTER AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF EXTREME COLD RESULTS IN VERY TREACHEROUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED...WATCHING A PATTERN CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE BEING PUSHED UP TOWARD SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. THE EC AND GFS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISING A SIMILAR
PICTURE. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL WARM UP
RESULTING IN RAIN...BUT JUST INLAND AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS THE PRECIP
WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND WILL BE VERY HEAVY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 181
MARINE...STORM WARNING 185
         GALES 120 121 130 132 138 351 352 150 155 160 165 170 171
               172 175 176 179 411 412 414
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AB NOV 11