Small Craft Advisory 84, NWS Anchorage, AK

053 
FZAK51 PAFC 301435 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
535 AM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

CORRECTED SYNOPSIS

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-310300-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 995 MB LOW 300 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY WILL MOVE TO NEAR KODIAK
CITY SUN NIGHT AND THEN MOVE INLAND MON MORNING. A 987 MB LOW WILL
DEVELOP NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND MON NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-310300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT E 45 KT NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE
ISLAND. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED AND THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-310300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. SNOW.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-310300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-310300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED AND THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-310300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-310300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. N OF
DANGEROUS CAPE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-310300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT
SUBSIDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-310300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
$$

PKZ141-310300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

490 
FZAK51 PAFC 301531 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
630 AM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

UPDATED ZONES 130 132 138 140 141

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-310300-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 995 MB LOW 300 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY WILL MOVE TO NEAR KODIAK
CITY SUN NIGHT AND THEN MOVE INLAND MON MORNING. A 987 MB LOW WILL
DEVELOP NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND MON NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-310300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT E 45 KT NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE
ISLAND. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED AND THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-310300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. SNOW.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-310300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-310300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED AND THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-310300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
630 AM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO NE 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-310300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
630 AM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
N OF DANGEROUS CAPE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-310300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
630 AM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT SHIFTING TO SW 25 KT BY MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-310300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
630 AM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTERNOON. N OF KALGIN
ISLAND...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS BUILDING TO 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
N OF KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
$$

PKZ141-310300-
KACHEMAK BAY
630 AM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

439 
FZAK51 PAFC 310047
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-311500-
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT. A 986 MB LOW 300 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK MON
EVENING MOVES INLAND OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA TUE MORNING.

$$

PKZ120-311500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT THIS EVENING. WINDS DIMINISHING
TO SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT EXCEPT E WIND 50 KT NEAR THE COAST E OF
MONTAGUE ISLAND. WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT EXCEPT E 40 KT NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE
ISLAND. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT EXCEPT E 45 KT NEAR THE COAST E OF
MONTAGUE ISLAND. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-311500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT EXCEPT NE 25 KT SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD. 
SEAS 5 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT EXCEPT NE 25 KT SOUTH OF CAINES
HEAD.  SEAS 5 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-311500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT....GUSTS TO 50 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE.
SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI..E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-311500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.MON...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-311500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT EXCEPT 6 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-311500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-311500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT
SUBSIDING TO 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-311500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT NE 35 KT KALGIN ISLAND IN THE
EVENING. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-311500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO E 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1200 PM AKST SAT JAN 29 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND UP ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW IS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA. THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER IS FOUND BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES AS SYSTEMS FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC TRACK NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE BERING SEA AND WESTERN ALASKA. THE MAIN FEATURE OF CONCERN
FOR TODAY IS A DEEP OCCLUDED LOW CROSSING THE SOUTHERN ALASKA
PENINSULA INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA. THE PRIMARY IMPACT IS WIND
WITH GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS BEING OBSERVED FROM THE KODIAK ISLAND
WATERS TO THE SOUTHWEST COASTAL WATERS. THESE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLIES
ARE PRODUCING DOWNSLOPE DRYING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA.
A TRIPLE POINT LOW IS VISIBLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY DOWN OVER THE
PACIFIC TRACKING NORTHWARD TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND. THERE IS NOT MUCH
UPPER SUPPORT WITH THIS LOW SO DON'T EXPECT IT TO DEEPEN...ALTHOUGH
IT WILL HELP REINFORCE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT LOW
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN BERING. HOWEVER THEY RAPIDLY DIVERGE
BEYOND THAT POINT WITH HANDLING OF SYSTEMS MOVING NORTHWARD FROM
THE PACIFIC. ENSEMBLE SPREAD BECOMES LARGE BY MONDAY SO FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE ECMWF SHOWS THE MOST RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY
AND ITS SOLUTION EVEN HAS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
IN THE SHORT-TERM. THEREFORE...WILL TREND TOWARD ECMWF SOLUTION FOR
THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE FORECAST AND STICK WITH CURRENT FORECAST
BEYOND THAT POINT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA IS DRY THIS MORNING
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS KODIAK
ISLAND WHICH IS OBSERVING RAIN AND WIND ALONG THE OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN BERING LOW. THE TRIPLE POINT LOW NOTED
ABOVE WILL TRACK TO KODIAK ISLAND SUNDAY AND RE-FORM A STRONG FRONT
OVER THE GULF. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE WILL THEN AID IN PUSHING
THIS FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE DOWNSLOPE
DRYING IN THE USUAL LOCATIONS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY
SO WHERE PRECIP DOES FALL IT WILL NOT LAST MUCH LONGER THAN ABOUT
SIX HOURS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT ALL SNOW INLAND BUT PERHAPS
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE PACIFIC...BUT
IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL BE IMPACTED BY TUESDAY
WITH PRECIP AND WINDS ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF WARMER AIR.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE EASTERN BERING LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS
TO THE NORTHERN BERING SUNDAY MORNING...SO WINDS AND PRECIP WILL
BOTH DIMINISH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND TRIPLE POINT LOW
WILL TRACK TO BRISTOL BAY BY LATE SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...UPPER
TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THUS...EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE CURRENT STORM EXPECT ONLY MINOR FEATURES TO
AFFECT THE REGION.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE GENERAL LONG-WAVE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN
THE SAME WITH RIDGE CENTERED OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND TROUGH
OVER THE BERING SEA/NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC. HOWEVER...WITH LARGE
ENSEMBLE SPREAD THE DETAILS OF INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH
THE TROUGH ARE VERY FUZZY. THEREFORE NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO
THE DAY 4 THROUGH 7 FORECASTS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...180.
         GALE WARNING...120 130 132 138 150 155 160 165 172 175.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB JAN 11