Gale Warning 123, NWS Anchorage, AK

598 
FZAK52 PAFC 301245
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-310300-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 987 MB LOW NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND MOVES TO NEAR NOME AT 998 MB MON
MORNING. A 994 MB LOW 130 NM WEST OF ADAK MOVES TO 150 NM NORTHWEST
OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND AT 993 MB MON AFTERNOON. A 995 MB LOW 350 NM
SOUTH OF SHEMYA SUN AFTERNOON MOVES TO 80 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA AT
985 MB TUE MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-310300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-310300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ160-310300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE
WATERS 5 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. SNOW.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-310300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ180-310300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-310300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-310300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ172-310300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-310300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-310300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-310300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SW 20 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE 30 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...S 30 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. 
.WED AND THU...E WIND 20 KT. 


$$

PKZ179-310300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1200 PM AKST SAT JAN 29 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND UP ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW IS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA. THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER IS FOUND BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES AS SYSTEMS FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC TRACK NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE BERING SEA AND WESTERN ALASKA. THE MAIN FEATURE OF CONCERN
FOR TODAY IS A DEEP OCCLUDED LOW CROSSING THE SOUTHERN ALASKA
PENINSULA INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA. THE PRIMARY IMPACT IS WIND
WITH GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS BEING OBSERVED FROM THE KODIAK ISLAND
WATERS TO THE SOUTHWEST COASTAL WATERS. THESE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLIES
ARE PRODUCING DOWNSLOPE DRYING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA.
A TRIPLE POINT LOW IS VISIBLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY DOWN OVER THE
PACIFIC TRACKING NORTHWARD TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND. THERE IS NOT MUCH
UPPER SUPPORT WITH THIS LOW SO DON'T EXPECT IT TO DEEPEN...ALTHOUGH
IT WILL HELP REINFORCE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT LOW
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN BERING. HOWEVER THEY RAPIDLY DIVERGE
BEYOND THAT POINT WITH HANDLING OF SYSTEMS MOVING NORTHWARD FROM
THE PACIFIC. ENSEMBLE SPREAD BECOMES LARGE BY MONDAY SO FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE ECMWF SHOWS THE MOST RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY
AND ITS SOLUTION EVEN HAS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
IN THE SHORT-TERM. THEREFORE...WILL TREND TOWARD ECMWF SOLUTION FOR
THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE FORECAST AND STICK WITH CURRENT FORECAST
BEYOND THAT POINT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA IS DRY THIS MORNING
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS KODIAK
ISLAND WHICH IS OBSERVING RAIN AND WIND ALONG THE OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN BERING LOW. THE TRIPLE POINT LOW NOTED
ABOVE WILL TRACK TO KODIAK ISLAND SUNDAY AND RE-FORM A STRONG FRONT
OVER THE GULF. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE WILL THEN AID IN PUSHING
THIS FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE DOWNSLOPE
DRYING IN THE USUAL LOCATIONS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY
SO WHERE PRECIP DOES FALL IT WILL NOT LAST MUCH LONGER THAN ABOUT
SIX HOURS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT ALL SNOW INLAND BUT PERHAPS
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE PACIFIC...BUT
IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL BE IMPACTED BY TUESDAY
WITH PRECIP AND WINDS ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF WARMER AIR.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE EASTERN BERING LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS
TO THE NORTHERN BERING SUNDAY MORNING...SO WINDS AND PRECIP WILL
BOTH DIMINISH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND TRIPLE POINT LOW
WILL TRACK TO BRISTOL BAY BY LATE SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...UPPER
TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THUS...EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE CURRENT STORM EXPECT ONLY MINOR FEATURES TO
AFFECT THE REGION.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE GENERAL LONG-WAVE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN
THE SAME WITH RIDGE CENTERED OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND TROUGH
OVER THE BERING SEA/NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC. HOWEVER...WITH LARGE
ENSEMBLE SPREAD THE DETAILS OF INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH
THE TROUGH ARE VERY FUZZY. THEREFORE NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO
THE DAY 4 THROUGH 7 FORECASTS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...180.
         GALE WARNING...120 130 132 138 150 155 160 165 172 175.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB JAN 11