Gale Warning 125, NWS Anchorage, AK

439 
FZAK51 PAFC 310047
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-311500-
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT. A 986 MB LOW 300 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK MON
EVENING MOVES INLAND OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA TUE MORNING.

$$

PKZ120-311500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT THIS EVENING. WINDS DIMINISHING
TO SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT EXCEPT E WIND 50 KT NEAR THE COAST E OF
MONTAGUE ISLAND. WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT EXCEPT E 40 KT NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE
ISLAND. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT EXCEPT E 45 KT NEAR THE COAST E OF
MONTAGUE ISLAND. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-311500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT EXCEPT NE 25 KT SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD. 
SEAS 5 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT EXCEPT NE 25 KT SOUTH OF CAINES
HEAD.  SEAS 5 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-311500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT....GUSTS TO 50 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE.
SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI..E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-311500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.MON...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-311500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT EXCEPT 6 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-311500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-311500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT
SUBSIDING TO 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-311500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT NE 35 KT KALGIN ISLAND IN THE
EVENING. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-311500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO E 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

901 
FZAK51 PAFC 311258
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST MON JAN 31 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-010300-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 31 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST TODAY AS
A 996 MB LOW OVER SHELIKOF STRAIT MOVES INLAND AND DISSIPATES. A 987
MB LOW DEVELOPS 180 NM E OF SITKINAK ISLAND MON EVENING AND MOVES TO
NEAR ANCHORAGE AT 990 MB TUE AFTERNOON. A 984 MB LOW MOVES TO 120 NM
SE OF KODIAK CITY FROM THE SOUTH TUE NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-010300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST MON JAN 31 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...E WIND
40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...E
WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-010300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST MON JAN 31 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-010300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST MON JAN 31 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT
SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-010300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST MON JAN 31 2011

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-010300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST MON JAN 31 2011

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO NE 15 KT BY AFTERNOON. W OF THE
BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO SE 25 KT BY AFTERNOON.
SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-010300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST MON JAN 31 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-010300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST MON JAN 31 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-010300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST MON JAN 31 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.WED AND THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ141-010300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST MON JAN 31 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUES
ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING AS A LARGE RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A WEAKENING LOW
IN THE EASTERN BERING THAT IS SPREADING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
EASTERN BERING...EASTERN ALEUTIANS..AND THE AKPEN. WARM MOIST AIR IS
BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARDS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN ALASKA IN THE
MERIDIONAL FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE OVER THE MAINLAND AND THE LOW IN
THE BERING. THE WARM ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS YIELDING
A DEVELOPING BAND OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS BRISTOL BAY AND KODIAK
ISLAND. ANOTHER WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN THE WESTERN
GULF IS ENHANCING THE RAIN ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND. FARTHER WEST A WEAK
LOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY GOOD THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT HOWEVER AFTER THAT THINGS GO DOWNHILL FAST. MODELS ARE
GENERALLY IN CONSENSUS REGARDING THE BASIC FEATURES IN THE MEDIUM TO
LONG RANGE...WITH A SERIES OF LOWS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...A RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN/CENTRAL BERING...AND ANOTHER LOW OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS. THAT SAID...THE DETAILS REGARDING EXACT TRACKS/STRENGTHS
OF THESE FEATURES ARE CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT FROM MODEL TO MODEL
MAKING IT VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCK IN ON ONE PARTICULAR SOLUTION WITH
ANY CONFIDENCE. AFTER 72 HOURS...TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THINGS GET EVEN
WORSE AND ALMOST ANY SEMBLANCE OF CONSENSUS GOES OUT THE WINDOW.
GIVEN THIS LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY THE GAME PLAN FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE IS TO MAKE JUST MINOR CHANGES FOR NOW UNTIL THE
MODELS CAN COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL...THE DEVELOPING LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL TRACK
NORTHWARDS ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND TODAY...PUSHING A FRONT ON TO THE
NORTH GULF COAST OVERNIGHT BRINGING SNOW TO THE USUAL UPSLOPE AREAS
ALONG THE EASTERN KENAI AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WHILE DOWNSLOPING
SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE WESTERN KENAI...ANCHORAGE BOWL...AND MATSU
DRY. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE RIDGING
TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TURNAGAIN
ARM TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY
SUNDAY NIGHT THOUGH SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION INTO
MONDAY.

SOUTHWEST AK...EXPECT SNOWFALL TO CONTINUE ACROSS BRISTOL BAY THIS
MORNING THOUGH THE COMBINATION OF WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND INSOLATION
SHOULD WARM THINGS UP ENOUGH TO MIX IN SOME RAIN BY THIS
AFTERNOON...LIMITING THE GREATEST SNOWFALL TOTALS TO HIGHER TERRAIN
AND AREAS WEST OF DILLINGHAM. THE PRECIP BAND WILL DISSIPATE AND LIFT
INTO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY OVERNIGHT AS THE PARENT LOW AND SUPPORTING
UPPER LEVEL WAVE DEPART NORTHWARDS THOUGH LIGHT SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED
TO LINGER ACROSS BRISTOL BAY...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE
AS LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...A SERIES OF RELATIVELY WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
THE THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...AS MENTIONED EARLIER GIVEN THE LARGE
DISCREPANCIES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AT THE MOMENT...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY
RESULTING IN LITTLE CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THAT
SAID...THE BIG PICTURE SHOWS THAT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A
SERIES OF LOWS TO TRACK INTO THE GULF...KEEPING WEATHER GENERALLY
UNSETTLED AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. LOOK FOR RIDGING TO
AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN BERING KEEPING THINGS QUIET ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ALASKA WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN BERING CAN EXPECT BLUSTERY WEATHER TO CONTINUE
AS A SERIES OF LOWS TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THIS
WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE WARNING...120 125 130 132 140 172
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

WOOD JAN 11