Small Craft Advisory 839, NWS Anchorage, AK

147 
FZAK52 PAFC 212343
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST MON NOV 21 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-221500-
400 PM AKST MON NOV 21 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND
WEAKEN THROUGH TUE. A 992 MB LOW 325 NM NORTHWEST OF ATTU TUE NIGHT
WILL MOVE NEAR ATTU AT 994 MB WED AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER
FRONT IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS TUE AND SLOWLY WEAKEN.
$$

PKZ150-221500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST MON NOV 21 2011

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT OUT OF BAYS
AND PASSES. SEAS 15 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 55 KT. GUSTS TO 70 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 19 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES...GUSTS TO 65 KT IN THE EVENING DIMINISHING 
TO 55 KT. SEAS 19 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
$$

PKZ155-221500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST MON NOV 21 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. WEST OF THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS...NW WIND 35
KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 45 KT. WEST OF THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS...NW WIND 35 KT.
SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  
$$

PKZ160-221500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST MON NOV 21 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  
$$

PKZ165-221500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST MON NOV 21 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT...EXCEPT NW 30 KT WEST OF COLD BAY. 
SEAS 14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT...EXCEPT NW 30 KT WEST OF COLD BAY. SEAS 16 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT...EXCEPT NW 25 KT WEST OF PORT MOLLER. 
SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-221500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST MON NOV 21 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
$$

PKZ170-221500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST MON NOV 21 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT EXCEPT NW 25 KT FROM UNALASKA E. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  
$$

PKZ171-221500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST MON NOV 21 2011

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ172-221500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST MON NOV 21 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. WEST OF SEGUAM ISLAND...WINDS BECOMING W 25 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  
$$

PKZ175-221500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST MON NOV 21 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  
$$

PKZ176-221500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST MON NOV 21 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 30 KT BY MORNING. 
SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  
$$

PKZ185-221500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST MON NOV 21 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  
$$

PKZ179-221500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST MON NOV 21 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  
$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
517 PM AKST SUN NOV 20 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAJOR STORM SYSTEM OVER THE BERING SEA SATURDAY MOVED ACROSS THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS THIS MORNING AND IS MOVING INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC.
THE DEVELOPING LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND YESTERDAY EVENING HAS
STRENGTHEN AS IT DRIFTED INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER HAS DEVELOPED JUST SOUTH OF THE EASTERN GULF AND IS MOVING
NORTH.

UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF IS VERTICALLY
STACKED ABOVE THE SURFACE LOW. ANOTHER LOW SIT OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH IN THE THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. AN UPPER
RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN BERING.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODEL HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF. THE
NAM MODEL WAS PREFERRED OVER THE GULF BECAUSE IT HANDLES THE COASTAL
WINDS THE BEST AND THE GFS WAS USED ELSE WHERE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND DISSIPATE
JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL GULF MONDAY EVENING. THE LOW ENTERING THE
EASTERN GULF WILL MOVE TO NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN
DRIFT WEST TO BE JUST SOUTH OF THE KENAI PENINSULA TUESDAY. A RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
BERING MONDAY AND INTO THE EASTERN BERING TUESDAY.

.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND THE GULF...SNOW OVER KODIAK ISLAND WILL
DIMINISH TO SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY AND WINDS
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS OF SNOW ALONG THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL MOVE INTO THE KENAI
PENINSULA, ANCHORAGE AND AND THE MATANUSKA VALLEY TONIGHT THEN BECOME
SNOW SHOWER MONDAY. MORE SNOW WILL MOVE BACK INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. GUSTY WINDS AND LOW WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST NEAR THOMPSON PASS INTO MONDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...BRISK NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST AND
WILL BRING COLD DRY AIR BACK INTO THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. SKIES
WILL CLEAR FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. SOME CLOUDS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL MOVE INTO THE
LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND EASTERN BRISTOL BAY TUESDAY. THE COLD
TEMPERATURE AND BRISK WINDS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF VERY LOW WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO 35 BELOW ZERO MAINLY OVER THE DELTA.

BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS...GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVER
THE EASTERN BERING WILL DIMINISH THROUGH MONDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL BERING. A LOW OVER WEST OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA
WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL SWING NORTH
INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS MONDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL BERING AND
EASTERN ALEUTIANS TUESDAY. RAIN AND SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS MONDAY AND SPREAD THROUGH THE
REST OF THE CHAIN BY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE MID-RANGE MODEL REMAIN IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE LOW IN
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MEANDER AROUND THE GULF
THROUGH FRIDAY. AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF AND
ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SOUTHWEST ALASKA
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD AS THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES
BUT WEAKEN THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE ALEUTIANS AS THE LOW OVER THE
WESTERN BERING DROPS OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY THEN MOVES
ALONG THE CHAIN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WATCH 125 131.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...120 128 129 138 155 160 165 180.
         STORM WARNING...127 130 132 150.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...121 126 127 128 129 130 132 138 140
                                141 150 160 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM NOV 11