High Wind Watch 34, NWS Anchorage, AK

081 
WWAK71 PAFC 212101
NPWAER

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1201 PM AKST MON NOV 21 2011

AKZ171-221415-
/X.UPG.PAFC.HW.A.0034.111122T0300Z-111123T0100Z/
/X.NEW.PAFC.HW.W.0043.111122T0300Z-111123T0100Z/
KODIAK ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...KODIAK CITY
1201 PM AKST MON NOV 21 2011

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM
AKST TUESDAY THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM AKST
TUESDAY. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* LOCATION...NEAR CHANNELED TERRAIN AND EXPOSED CAPES.

* WIND...NORTHWEST WINDS 30 TO 55 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 75 MPH.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY THIS EVENING AND
  CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...HIGH WINDS CAN MOVE LOOSE DEBRIS AND MAY DAMAGE PROPERTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD
BE BLOWN AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND.

&&

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKST MON NOV 21 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MORNING WEATHER MAP FEATURES A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA WITH MULTIPLE SURFACE LOWS ROTATING AROUND BENEATH IT.
THE STRONGEST OF THESE SURFACE LOWS IS IMPACTING THE PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING. AN UPPER LOW OVER INTERIOR ALASKA IS MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE
REGION. OUT WEST...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL BERING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST GENERATED A BAND OF MODERATE SNOW OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE COOK
INLET REGION. THIS SNOW BAND IS FALLING APART AS IT HEADS EAST INTO
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN OVERALL VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. THE NAM WAS SELECTED AS THE MODEL OF CHOICE DUE TO SUPERIOR
HANDLING OF THE COMPLEX TERRAIN THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE STATE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE
DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY OF A SURFACE LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE KENAI
PENINSULA NEAR SEWARD. ALL THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THIS LOW WILL
SPREAD OVERRUNNING PRECIP INTO THE COOK INLET REGION TONIGHT. WITH
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN PLACE...SNOW RATIOS SHOULD BE
VERY HIGH SO SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL. ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE KENAI PENINSULA THE
SNOW TOTALS SHOULD BE MUCH HIGHER...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH GUSTY
WINDS SHOULD CREATE VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN KENAI. THE OTHER CHALLENGE AS BITTERLY COLD AIR MOVES
INTO SOUTHWEST WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE
BARREN ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE KODIAK ISLAND AREA. A HIGH WIND WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR KODIAK ISLAND AS GUSTS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
REACH 75 MPH OR HIGHER.

WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...NORTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE AS VERY COLD
AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. WIND CHILLS WILL APPROACH ADVISORY LEVEL
ACROSS THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND BRISTOL BAY ZONE...AND SHOULD
MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE DELTA BEGINNING THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL BE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR...IF NOT THE
COLDEST...FOR THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND.

IN THE BERING...UNCHARACTERISTICALLY QUIET WEATHER FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ONLY SLOWLY
EASTWARD THROUGH THE BERING SEA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...ANOTHER VERY COLD WEEK IS ON TRACK FOR MAINLAND
ALASKA. THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A PATTERN CHANGE BY NEXT
WEEKEND...WHICH MAY BRING A WARMER BUT SNOWIER PATTERN TO THE
MAINLAND. HOWEVER THIS FAR OUT IN TIME CONFIDENCE TENDS TO BE QUITE
LOW...EVEN IN THE LARGE-SCALE WEATHER PATTERN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 125
         BLIZZARD WATCH 131
         HIGH WIND WATCH 171
         WIND CHILL ADVISORY 131 155
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING 130
         STORM WARNING 132 138 150
         GALE WARNING 121 129 140 155 160 165 180
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING 121 126 127 128 129 130 132 138
                                      140 141 160 165 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DIXON NOV 11