Alert archive / Alaska / Blizzard Watches in 2011
Blizzard Watch 17, NWS Anchorage, AK
NWS Anchorage, AK issued this blizzard watch at Nov 20, 2011, 4:03 PM AKST. It took effect at Nov 21, 2011, 4:00 PM AKST. It was in force for .
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 20, 2011, 4:03 PM AKST (01:03 UTC)
- In effect from
- Nov 21, 2011, 4:00 PM AKST
- Expired
- Nov 21, 2011, 12:09 PM AKST
- In force
- Issued by
- NWS Anchorage, AK
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
823 WWAK41 PAFC 210103 WSWAER URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK 403 PM AKST SUN NOV 20 2011 AKZ171-210700- /X.EXT.PAFC.WW.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-111121T0700Z/ KODIAK ISLAND- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...KODIAK CITY 403 PM AKST SUN NOV 20 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR THE NORTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE ISLAND... THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR THE NORTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE ISLAND. * SNOW...ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 3 INCHES NORTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE ISLAND. * TIMING...SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED IN SNOWFALL. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... && $$ AKZ131-211415- /X.NEW.PAFC.BZ.A.0017.111122T0600Z-111122T2100Z/ /X.CON.PAFC.WC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-111121T2100Z/ NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VALDEZ...THOMPSON PASS 403 PM AKST SUN NOV 20 2011 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST MONDAY FOR THOMPSON PASS... ...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THOMPSON PASS AND THE LOWE RIVER VALLEY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THOMPSON PASS AND THE LOWE RIVER VALLEY. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST MONDAY FOR THOMPSON PASS. * LOCATION...THOMPSON PASS AND THE LOWE RIVER VALLEY. * WIND...NORTH WIND 30 TO 50 MPH. * TIMING...WIND CHILLS TO 45 BELOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THOMPSON PASS. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...INCREASED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE FOR THOMPSON PASS. SEVERE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS MAY CAUSE TRAVEL TO BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE AT TIMES IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN FROSTBITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES. THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY DANGEROUS. && $$ AKZ125-211415- /X.NEW.PAFC.BZ.A.0017.111122T0100Z-111123T0100Z/ WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WHITTIER...SEWARD...GIRDWOOD... MOOSE PASS 403 PM AKST SUN NOV 20 2011 ...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. * SNOW...SNOW DEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON. 8 TO 16 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS TO 24 INCHES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. * VISIBILITY...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL POSSIBLY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. * WIND...NORTH TO WEST WIND 30 TO 45 MPH. NEAR WHITTIER WEST WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 65 MPH AT TIMES. * TIMING...LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...SEVERE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS MAY CAUSE TRAVEL TO BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE AT TIMES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES. THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY DANGEROUS. && $$
4 follow-up statements
537 WWAK41 PAFC 210728 WSWAER URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK 1028 PM AKST SUN NOV 20 2011 AKZ171-210830- /X.EXP.PAFC.WW.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-111121T0700Z/ KODIAK ISLAND- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...KODIAK CITY 1028 PM AKST SUN NOV 20 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW HAS EXPIRED... THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN. $$ AKZ131-220230- /X.CON.PAFC.WC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-111121T2100Z/ /X.CON.PAFC.BZ.A.0017.111122T0600Z-111122T2100Z/ NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VALDEZ...THOMPSON PASS 1028 PM AKST SUN NOV 20 2011 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST MONDAY FOR THOMPSON PASS... ...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THOMPSON PASS AND THE LOWE RIVER VALLEY... A WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST MONDAY. A BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. * LOCATION...THOMPSON PASS AND THE LOWE RIVER VALLEY. * WIND...NORTH WIND 30 TO 50 MPH. * TIMING...WIND CHILLS TO 45 BELOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THOMPSON PASS. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...INCREASED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE FOR THOMPSON PASS. SEVERE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS MAY CAUSE TRAVEL TO BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE AT TIMES IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN FROSTBITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES. THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY DANGEROUS. && $$ AKZ125-220230- /X.CON.PAFC.BZ.A.0017.111122T0100Z-111123T0100Z/ WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WHITTIER...SEWARD...GIRDWOOD... MOOSE PASS 1028 PM AKST SUN NOV 20 2011 ...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... A BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. * SNOW...SNOW DEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON. 8 TO 16 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS TO 24 INCHES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. * VISIBILITY...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL POSSIBLY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. * WIND...NORTH TO WEST WIND 30 TO 45 MPH. NEAR WHITTIER WEST WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 65 MPH AT TIMES. * TIMING...LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...SEVERE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS MAY CAUSE TRAVEL TO BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE AT TIMES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES. THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY DANGEROUS. && $$
467 WWAK41 PAFC 211419 WSWAER URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK 519 AM AKST MON NOV 21 2011 AKZ125-220330- /X.UPG.PAFC.BZ.A.0017.111122T0100Z-111123T0100Z/ /X.NEW.PAFC.BZ.W.0037.111122T0300Z-111123T0300Z/ WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WHITTIER...SEWARD...GIRDWOOD... MOOSE PASS 519 AM AKST MON NOV 21 2011 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM AKST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM AKST TUESDAY. THE BLIZZARD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * SNOW...SNOW DEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 8 TO 17 INCHES. * VISIBILITY...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. * WIND...NORTH TO WEST WIND 30 TO 45 MPH. NEAR WHITTIER SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 65 MPH AT TIMES. * TIMING...THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...SEVERE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS MAY CAUSE TRAVEL TO BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE AT TIMES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. ALL TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITY IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. && $$ AKZ131-220330- /X.EXT.PAFC.WC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-111123T2100Z/ /X.CON.PAFC.BZ.A.0017.111122T0600Z-111122T2100Z/ NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VALDEZ...THOMPSON PASS 519 AM AKST MON NOV 21 2011 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST WEDNESDAY FOR THOMPSON PASS... ...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST WEDNESDAY. A BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. * LOCATION...THOMPSON PASS AND THE LOWE RIVER VALLEY. * WIND...NORTH WIND 30 TO 50 MPH. * TIMING...WIND CHILLS 35 TO 45 BELOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...INCREASED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE FOR THOMPSON PASS. SEVERE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS MAY CAUSE TRAVEL TO BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE AT TIMES IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN FROSTBITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES. THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY DANGEROUS. && $$
445 WWAK41 PAFC 212102 WSWAER URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK 1202 PM AKST MON NOV 21 2011 AKZ131-221415- /X.CAN.PAFC.BZ.A.0017.111122T0600Z-111122T2100Z/ /X.CON.PAFC.WC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-111123T2100Z/ NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VALDEZ...THOMPSON PASS 1202 PM AKST MON NOV 21 2011 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST WEDNESDAY... ...BLIZZARD WATCH IS CANCELED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS CANCELED THE BLIZZARD WATCH. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST WEDNESDAY. THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST WEDNESDAY. A BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. * LOCATION...THOMPSON PASS. * WIND...NORTH WIND INCREASING TO 45 TO 65 MPH THIS EVENING AND PERSISTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. * TIMING...WIND CHILLS 35 TO 50 BELOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...INCREASED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES IN BLOWING SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN FROSTBITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. && $$ AKZ125-221415- /X.CON.PAFC.BZ.W.0037.111122T0300Z-111123T0300Z/ WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WHITTIER...SEWARD...GIRDWOOD... MOOSE PASS 1202 PM AKST MON NOV 21 2011 ...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM AKST TUESDAY... A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM AKST TUESDAY. * SNOW...SNOW DEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 8 TO 17 INCHES. * VISIBILITY...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. * WIND...NORTH TO WEST WIND 30 TO 45 MPH. NEAR WHITTIER SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 65 MPH AT TIMES. * TIMING...THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...SEVERE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS MAY CAUSE TRAVEL TO BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE AT TIMES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. ALL TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITY IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. && $$
497 WWAK41 PAFC 212110 CCA WSWAER URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK 1209 PM AKST MON NOV 21 2011 AKZ131-221430- /X.CAN.PAFC.BZ.A.0017.111122T0600Z-111122T2100Z/ /X.COR.PAFC.WC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-111123T2100Z/ NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VALDEZ...THOMPSON PASS 1209 PM AKST MON NOV 21 2011 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST WEDNESDAY... ...BLIZZARD WATCH IS CANCELED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS CANCELED THE BLIZZARD WATCH. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST WEDNESDAY. * LOCATION...THOMPSON PASS. * WIND...NORTH WIND INCREASING TO 45 TO 65 MPH THIS EVENING AND PERSISTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. * TIMING...WIND CHILLS 35 TO 50 BELOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...INCREASED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES IN BLOWING SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN FROSTBITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. && $$ AKZ125-221430- /X.CON.PAFC.BZ.W.0037.111122T0300Z-111123T0300Z/ WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WHITTIER...SEWARD...GIRDWOOD... MOOSE PASS 1209 PM AKST MON NOV 21 2011 ...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM AKST TUESDAY... A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM AKST TUESDAY. * SNOW...SNOW DEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 8 TO 17 INCHES. * VISIBILITY...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. * WIND...NORTH TO WEST WIND 30 TO 45 MPH. NEAR WHITTIER SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 65 MPH AT TIMES. * TIMING...THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...SEVERE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS MAY CAUSE TRAVEL TO BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE AT TIMES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. ALL TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITY IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. && $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this blizzard watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this blizzard watch went out at Nov 20, 6:00 AM AKST, 10 hours 3 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Nov 20, 6:00 AM AKST, 10 hours 3 minutes before
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
600 AM AKST SUN NOV 20 2011
.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA AND A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA. A
QUICK LOOK AT SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A WEAKENING VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA MOVING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD DUTCH HARBOR. A LARGE AND DISORGANIZED FRONT
STRETCHES EASTWARD FROM THIS LOW ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN RANGE AND INTO
THE GULF OF ALASKA. A NEW TRIPLE POINT LOW IS DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF
KODIAK ISLAND. THIS NEW LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL ENERGY FROM THE
DECAYING LOW OUT WEST AS THE UPPER LOW FOLLOWS SUIT AND DROPS INTO
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE GULF. WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ALASKA IS TAPERING OFF AS THE BERING LOW DROPS RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD.
MEANWHILE...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE GULF ARE ON THE INCREASE AS
AN INVERTED TROUGH IS SWINGING TOWARD THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA.
.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THERE IS ONE MAIN WEATHER SYSTEM AFFECTING THE STATE CURRENTLY...AND
THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS A IT OF DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE
TRIPLE POINT LOW CURRENTLY DEVELOPING NEAR KODIAK ISLAND. THE NAM AND
ECMWF ARE FURTHER WEST THAN THE GFS LOW POSITION. LOOKING AT CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY IT SEEMS LIKE THE GFS HAS INITIALIZED A BIT BETTER
THAN THE OTHERS...SO THE GFS TRACK HAS BEEN CHOSEN AS THE MODEL OF
CHOICE FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. FOR THE EXTENDED GRIDS...A BLEND
OF HPC GUIDANCE AND THE ECMWF WERE USED TO MAKE RELATIVELY MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE INHERITED FORECAST.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE FALLING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN KENAI THIS MORNING AS THE ALREADY-RAGGED FRONT AFFECTING THE
REGION CONTINUES TO FALL APART. SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE GULF HAS
EXPANDED INTO A MODERATE SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION IN RESPONSE TO THE
DEVELOPING LOW NEAR KODIAK. THIS AREA OF SNOW IS ABOUT TO MOVE INTO
THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND REGION.
MEANWHILE...CLOUD-COVER HAS OVERTAKEN MANY OF THE INTERIOR
AREAS...LEADING TO MODERATELY WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING THAN
HAVE BEEN SEEN FOR SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND SHOULD
BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING...SWITCHING PRECIPITATION BACK
TO SNOW EVEN FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE ISLAND. HIGHER INLAND
ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE ADVISORY LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS TODAY.
MEANWHILE...AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF THIS EVENING
AND ROTATE AROUND THE LOW TOWARD PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THIS EVENING.
AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD ROTATE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE INTO THE COOK INLET REGION. THE COMBINATION
OF SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF
SHOULD ALLOW SOME LIGHT SNOW TO FALL FROM THE KENAI PENINSULA UP
THROUGH ANCHORAGE AND THE MAT-SU VALLEY TONIGHT AND PERHAPS LASTING
INTO MONDAY.
SOUTHWEST AND BERING SEA...SNOW TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE DELTA AND
BRISTOL BAY REGIONS TODAY AS LOW IN THE BERING WEAKENS AND MOVES
RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND A REINFORCING
SURGE OF BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL STREAM INTO THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND FROM THE NORTH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AT THE SAME...WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN BERING...SPREADING TO
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE BERING REGION BY TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM FORECAST...ANOTHER COLD WEAK ON TRACK FOR PRETTY MUCH ALL
OF MAINLAND ALASKA. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL SET UP FAR ENOUGH WEST THAT A REPEAT OF THE STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL THAT HAPPENED THIS PAST
WEEK WILL NOT REPEAT AGAIN WITH THIS EVENT. A LARGE BUT RELATIVELY
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER AROUND THE NORTHERN GULF FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK...KEEPING THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FOR
COASTAL LOCATIONS.
.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY 131
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW 171
MARINE...STORM 130 140 150
GALE 120 127 128 132 138 155 160 165 170 172 179 185
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 126 127 128 129 130 138 140 141 160
180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE
DIXON NOV 11The office that day
Everything else NWS Anchorage, AK issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 4:00 PM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 48 hr | |
| Nov 20, 4:00 PM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 12 hr | |
| Nov 20, 4:00 PM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 4 days | |
| Nov 20, 4:00 PM AKST | Storm Warning | AFC | 48 hr | |
| Nov 20, 4:00 PM AKST | Storm Warning | AFC | 48 hr | |
| Nov 20, 4:00 PM AKST | Heavy Freezing Spray Warning | AFC | 12 hr | |
| Nov 20, 4:00 PM AKST | Heavy Freezing Spray Warning | AFC | 60 hr | |
| Nov 20, 4:00 PM AKST | Heavy Freezing Spray Warning | AFC | 12 hr | |
| Nov 21, 4:00 AM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 36 hr | |
| Nov 21, 4:00 AM AKST | Hurricane Force Wind Warning | AFC | 24 hr | |
| Nov 21, 4:00 AM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 12 hr | |
| Nov 21, 4:00 AM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 48 hr | |
| Nov 21, 4:00 AM AKST | Storm Warning | AFC | 12 hr | |
| Nov 21, 4:00 AM AKST | Heavy Freezing Spray Warning | AFC | 16 days | |
| Nov 21, 4:40 AM AKST | Wind Chill Advisory | AFC | 48 hr | |
| Nov 21, 5:04 AM AKST | High Wind Watch | AFC | 7 hr | |
| Nov 21, 5:19 AM AKST | Blizzard Warning | AFC | 41 hr | |
| Nov 21, 12:01 PM AKST | High Wind Warning | AFC | 21 hr |
Nearby
Blizzard Watches in Alaska, 2011Every blizzard watch in 2011
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.