Small Craft Advisory 789, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT TUE NOV 1 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...06Z NAM...GFS AND 00Z EC IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
ON NORTHERN GULF LOW...NAM IS THE DEEPEST AND GFS WEAKEST BUT
POSITION AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES AROUND THE GULF IS GOOD. IN THE WEST
REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON POSITION OF NEXT NORTH PACIFIC STORM MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER GFS IS THE
STRONGEST AND NAM THE WEAKEST.  FORECASTERS USED MAINLY GFS THIS
MORNING FOR THEIR VARIOUS PACKAGES.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A PRONOUNCED FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF THIS MORNING. THERE ARE TWO SYSTEMS IN THE
GULF...ONE IN THE NORTHER JUST EAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND AND THE
SECOND JUST SOUTHWEST OF SAND POINT. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TODAY AND IS PROGED TO SLIDE TO THE
SOUTHEAST ON WED.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE TODAY AND MOVES EASTWARD.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...SNOW TURNING TO SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF 148W WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS TO THE WEST. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE STRONG NORTH WINDS
AS PRESSURE BUILDS OVER INTERIOR AND LOW REMAINS IN THE NORTHERN
GULF.  LOOKS AS IF WINDS REMAIN STRONG THROUGH WED EVENING.

SOUTHWEST...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS IN BRISTOL BAY
THIS MORNING BUT OVERALL BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. AREAS OF FOG WILL
PROBABLY DEVELOP BUT OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR OR SUNNY TUE NIGHT AND
WED. STRONG NORTH WINDS IN BRISTOL BAY ZONE THROUGH WED MORNING. NEXT
FRONT MOVES ONSHORE WED EVENING...INITIALLY SNOW BUT COASTAL AREAS
COULD SEE SOME RAIN OR MIXED PHASE PRECIP BY THU AFTERNOON.

BERING...NORTH PACIFIC STORM REACHES THE WESTERN AL EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE STRONG EAST WINDS THIS EVENING IN WESTERN AL
MOVING INTO CENTRAL BERING OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER CHAIN TUE AND WED. EXPECT MODERATE NW WINDS ON
BACKSIDE OF SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE DOMINATE PLAYER IS THE BERING STORM WHICH
IS PROGED TO IMPACT SOUTHWEST ZONES WED EVENING. THE GFS TAKES THE
LOW CENTER OVER THE KUSKO DELTA THU EVENING AND OVER MCGRATH FRI
AFTERNOON. WOULD EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW OVER SOUTHWEST ZONES
WED NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRI. FRONT MOVES WEST OF AK PEN LATE THU
MORNING GENERATING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR COOK INLET.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZ FOR THOMPSON PASS...WW ADV FOR SOUTHERN COPPER BASIN.
MARINE...STRMS: 150 170 172 175 176 412 413 414 129 132 351
GALES: 155 160 165 171 185 179 411 121 125 130 138 140 126 127 352
128
FIRE WEATHER...NOT AWARE OF ANY ISSUES AT THIS TIME.

JMP NOV 11