High Wind Watch 28, NWS Anchorage, AK

027 
WWAK72 PAFC 020057 CCA
NPWALU

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
352 PM AKDT TUE NOV 1 2011

A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIAN CHAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TRACK TO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. AN
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS WINDS TO THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS...WITH GUSTS TO 85 MPH POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL THEN SWING EAST TOWARDS THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA...WITH WINDS BEHIND IT SLOWLY
DIMINISHING.

AKZ185-021415-
/X.NEW.PAFC.HW.A.0028.111103T0300Z-111103T1300Z/
EASTERN ALEUTIANS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...UNALASKA...NIKOLSKI
352 PM AKDT TUE NOV 1 2011

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

* LOCATION...THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS INCLUDING DUTCH HARBOR.

* WIND...SOUTH WINDS OF 50 TO 70 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 85 MPH POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...STRONGEST WINDS WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...WIND DRIVEN PROJECTILES MAKING OUTDOOR ACTIVITY DANGEROUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS
HIGH WIND EVENT. PEOPLE ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS
WEATHER SITUATION. PREPARATION FOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
WEATHER EVENT SHOULD BEGIN NOW.

&&

$$

JAM

172 
WWAK72 PAFC 021304
NPWALU

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
504 AM AKDT WED NOV 2 2011

A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIAN CHAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND TRACK TO
THE CENTRAL BERING SEA TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL
AFFECT THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA REGIONS WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS WINDS BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

AKZ185-030215-
/X.UPG.PAFC.HW.A.0028.111103T0300Z-111103T1300Z/
/X.NEW.PAFC.HW.W.0036.111103T0000Z-111103T0800Z/
EASTERN ALEUTIANS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...UNALASKA...NIKOLSKI
504 AM AKDT WED NOV 2 2011

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
MIDNIGHT AKDT TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT
AKDT TONIGHT. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* WIND...SOUTH WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 80 MPH 
  POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...STRONGEST WINDS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
  EVENING.

* IMPACTS...WIND DRIVEN PROJECTILES MAKING OUTDOOR ACTIVITY
  DANGEROUS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD
BE BLOWN AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND.

&&

$$

AKZ181-030215-
/X.NEW.PAFC.HW.A.0029.111103T0600Z-111103T1800Z/
ALASKA PENINSULA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COLD BAY...SAND POINT
504 AM AKDT WED NOV 2 2011

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. 

* LOCATION...STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH AREAS OF CHANNELED TERRAIN.

* WIND...SOUTH WINDS OF 45 TO 60 MPH WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 80 MPH...

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY EARLY THIS EVENING
  WITH STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PERSISTING
  THROUGH MID MORNING ON THURSDAY...

* IMPACTS...WIND DRIVEN PROJECTILES MAKING OUTDOOR ACTIVITY
  DANGEROUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS
HIGH WIND EVENT. PEOPLE ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS
WEATHER SITUATION. PREPARATION FOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
WEATHER EVENT SHOULD BEGIN NOW. 

&&

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1240 PM AKDT TUE NOV 1 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...AT 11 AM SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
DEEP LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE SUCKLING. THE CIRRUS SHIELD WITH THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS WELL NORTH
AND WEST OF THE LOW CENTER ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TO THE BORDER
WITH SOUTHWEST ALASKA ALONG THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES. AS THE
LOW TRACKS NORTHWARD THE MOISTURE IS ROTATING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE
WEST SIDE OF THE LOW. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A SOLID AREA OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND REGION. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOUTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIP-TYPE IS SNOW. OBSERVATIONS ALSO SHOW WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS
THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RAPIDLY
TIGHTENING ACROSS THE REGION AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION FROM THE INTERIOR IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE SURFACE WINDS
IN MOST AREAS. THE TALKEETNA WIND PROFILER AND KENAI RADAR VAD WIND
PROFILE SHOW 35 TO 50 KT WITHIN A FEW THOUSAND FEET OFF THE SURFACE.
THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SNOW AND WINDS ARE CAUSING DIFFICULT TRAVEL ACROSS THE EASTERN
KENAI PENINSULA AND COPPER BASIN WHERE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT AND THROUGH THOMPSON PASS WHERE A BLIZZARD WARNING
IS IN EFFECT.

THE INFLUENCE OF THE GULF LOW EXTENDS WESTWARD TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA
AND THE EASTERN BERING WHERE GUSTY WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED. HIGH
PRESSURE WEST OF THIS AREA IS RESULTING IN QUIET CONDITIONS AT THE
MOMENT...BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING LOW ABOUT 500 NM
SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WITH MOISTURE SPREADING WELL OUT
AHEAD OF THE LOW CENTER.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...DUE TO MODEL INGEST PROBLEMS THIS MORNING DID
NOT RECEIVE A LOT OF THE 12Z MODEL DATA. THE ECMWF APPEARED TO
INITIALIZE BEST WITH POSITION OF DEEP LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
AND IT AT LEAST HINTS AT A SECONDARY LOW SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND.
THE NAM SOLUTION DOES CLOSELY FOLLOW THE ECMWF BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON AS THESE TWO LOWS COMBINE INTO A SINGLE CONCENTRIC LOW.
SOUTH OF CAPE SUCKLING. WILL UPDATE THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST ACROSS
THE GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA BASED ON THE AVAILABLE 12Z NAM
DATA WHICH GOES THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. MINIMAL CHANGES WILL BE
MADE BEYOND THIS POINT. OUT WEST THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z 190 KM GFS
ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS RUNS OF EACH MODEL. WITHOUT
A FULL MODEL SUITE TO WORK WITH PLAN ON VERY MINOR CHANGES TO
EXISTING FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE GULF LOW WILL START TO TRACK AWAY FROM
SOUTHCENTRAL THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BRING PRECIP TO AN END.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHICH MEANS WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT THE VALDEZ AREA TO APPROACH WARNING LEVEL WINDS...BUT THE
CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THOMPSON PASS HIGHLIGHTS THE MOST
DANGEROUS THREAT IN THE AREA. ONCE THIS EXPIRES LATE THIS EVENING
MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER ISSUING A HIGH WIND WARNING. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY TREND DOWNWARD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOW TRACKS OUT OF THE REGION. STRONG WINDS WILL HOLD ON LONGEST
ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT SOUTHCENTRAL WILL BE A VERY LARGE
BERING LOW. AS IT MOVES ONSHORE OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA THURSDAY PRECIP
AND WIND WILL SPREAD TO MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL. AS IS TYPICAL ALSO
EXPECT A TRIPLE POINT LOW TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF. IT IS A BIT TOO
EARLY TO SAY WHETHER ANY ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED...BUT
BASED ON THE EXPECTED SIZE AND STRENGTH OF THE BERING SYSTEM IT IS
A STRONG POSSIBILITY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...WINDS WILL DIE DOWN ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA
TONIGHT AS THE GULF LOW TRACKS AWAY FROM THE REGION. WITH LIGHTER
WINDS...A COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE...AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY DROP TO SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. THE
COLD AND QUIET WEATHER WON'T LAST LONG THOUGH AS A VERY LARGE BERING
LOW MOVES TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MUCH WARMER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM WHICH MEANS PRECIP-TYPE
WILL BECOME PREDOMINANTLY RAIN. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW BEFORE THE WARM AIR ARRIVES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST. DON'T PLAN TO ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES OR
WARNINGS AT THE MOMENT...BUT WILL CONSIDER ISSUING SOMETHING WITH
THE NEW FORECAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...A STRONG SOUTHERLY JET AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC
STORM WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF A TRIPLE POINT LOW OVER THE
SOUTHCENTRAL BERING SEA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL QUICKLY BECOME THE
DOMINANT LOW. WIDESPREAD GALE TO A STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
AS THIS LOW DEEPENS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS AS THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND
SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA. AT THIS POINT THOUGH...IT IS LOOKING
LIKE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WARNING LEVELS. AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES TO MAINLAND ALASKA LATE THURSDAY ANOTHER WILL ENTER FROM
THE WEST...ALBEIT A MUCH WEAKER STORM.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN VERY
PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THUS...ACTIVE
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 131.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...127 128 130 132 150 170 172 175 176 179
                         180 185.
         GALE WARNING...120 121 125 126 129 138 140 141 155 160
                        165 171.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB NOV 11