Storm Warning 265, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Oct 31, 2011, 4:00 PM AKDT (00:00 UTC)

Expired

Nov 1, 2011, 7:00 AM AKDT

In force

15 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 312346
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-011500-
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 993 MB LOW 50 NM WEST OF DUTCH HARBOR MOVES TO 200 NM SOUTHEAST OF
COLD BAY LATE TONIGHT AND DISSIPATES TUE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA TUE AND MOVES EAST ON WED. A 981 MB
NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES TO 200 NM SOUTHWEST OF ADAK WED AFTERNOON. 
$$

PKZ150-011500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 
FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT...GUSTING TO 60 KT OUT OF BAYS AND 
PASSES. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-011500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT 
OF BAYS AND PASSES AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 18 FT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN 
ISLANDS E...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT...GUSTING TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
14 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT...GUSTING TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND 
PASSES. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-011500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY ALONG
THE WESTERN CAPES.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-011500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 
FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM
PORT MOLLER E...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-011500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE
COAST. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE 
COAST. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT. FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE COAST.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-011500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW WIND 45 KT THIS EVENING. SEAS 
21 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT GUSTING TO 35 KT...DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 25 KT TOWARDS MORNING.
SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-011500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO NW 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT
THIS EVENING...THEN DIMINISHING TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT TOWARDS
MORNING. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 
FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-011500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E OF SEGUAM ISLAND...NW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF SEGUAM ISLAND...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20
KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT. 
.TUE...E OF SEGUAM ISLAND...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. W OF SEGUAM ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE
20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E OF SEGUAM ISLAND...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF SEGUAM ISLAND...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40
KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-011500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...BERING SIDE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. PACIFIC SIDE...W WIND
25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11
FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT DURING THE EVENING.
SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-011500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT THIS EVENING. SEAS 
13 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT DURING THE MORNING. SEAS 11
FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. BERING SIDE...SEAS 14 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...
SEAS 14 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 55 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-011500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...WINDS
DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT. 
.TUE...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N WIND 20 KT. W OF SAINT MATTHEW
ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-011500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12
FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 
FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

JAM

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this storm warning went out at Oct 31, 1:45 PM AKDT, 2 hours 15 minutes earlier.

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
145 PM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD TROUGH PERSISTS OVER MUCH OF THE
STATE WITH THE AXIS RUNNING FROM NEAR BARROW BACK TO THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IS DIGGING SOUTH NEAR THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING 160 KT JET FLOWING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. A BAROCLINIC LEAF IS
BECOMING MORE EVIDENT THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP UNDER
THE MASSIVE CLOUD SHIELD.

A WEAKER SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR THE TIP OF THE KENAI PENINSULA.
MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THIS FEATURE IS RESULTING IN LIGHT SNOW FROM
COOK INLET UP TO THE SUSITNA VALLEY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM IN THE NORTH
PACIFIC.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...A CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY WITH SOME VERY
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TYPICALLY PREFERRED MODELS IN THE
FIRST 24 HOURS. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH THE PLACEMENT
AND STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING NORTH PACIFIC LOW. THE 12Z RUN
INITIALIZED POORLY WHEN COMPARED TO THE SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE
INTERMITTENT RUN IS NOT MUCH BETTER. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
CONSISTENTLY BROUGHT A MID 970S MB LOW TO THE NORTH GULF COAST BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE NAM SHOOTS THE LOW NORTHEAST NEAR
YAKUTAT.

THE DIFFERENCE IN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS HAS VERY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON
THE FORECAST. BASED ON THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION...WE ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING FOR THOMPSON PASS AND A SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN. IF THE NAM WERE TO VERIFY...VERY LITTLE IF ANY SNOW WOULD FALL
IN THIS REGION AND BOTH WOULD FAIL TO VERIFY.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...WE WILL BE WATCHING THE SATELLITE AND BUOYS VERY
CLOSE THIS EVENING TO SEE IF THE LOW IS DEVELOPING AS EXPECTED.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...AS HINTED AT IN THE MODEL DISCUSION...THE
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION BRINGS ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
ALASKA LATE TONIGHT. AS THE LOW BOMBS TO APPROX 975 MB...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL STRENGTHEN RESULTING IN FIERCE GAP
WINDS. HEAVY SNOW TAPERS OFF TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT THE
COLD AIR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD BEHIND IT WILL FURTHER ENHANCE THE
GRADIENT. EXPECT STRONG WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES TO FILTER ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE PATTERN DOES NOT LAST LONG A RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA
WEDNESDAY AND SPREADS INTO SOUTHCENTRAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIVING THE
PROGRESSIVE RIDGE IS ANOTHER NORTH PACIFIC LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THIS LOW AND ITS FRONT MARCHES ACROSS THE THE
BERING SEA TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR...SPREADING MOISTURE ACROSS
MOST OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 131.
MARINE...STORM WARNINGS 138 150 170 175 176
         GALE WARNINGS 120 121 127 128 130 138 155 160 165 171 172
                       179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AB OCT 11

Storm Warnings in Alaska, 2011Every storm warning in 2011

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.