Small Craft Advisory 786, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Sep 30, 2011, 4:00 PM AKDT (00:00 UTC)

Expired

Oct 1, 2011, 7:00 AM AKDT

In force

15 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 302359
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 30 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-011500-
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 30 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 987 MB LOW NEAR 54N 156W WILL MOVE TO 52N 151W SAT MORNING AT 992
MB AND DISSIPATE SUN MORNING. 
$$

PKZ120-011500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 30 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT 35 KT ALONG THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE
ISLAND. SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-011500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 30 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2
FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-011500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 30 2011

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO E 25 KT BY LATE EVENING. N OF
NAKED ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT BY LATE EVENING.
SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT BUILDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT S OF NAKED ISLAND.
RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-011500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 30 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-011500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 30 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...FROM THE BARREN ISLANDS W...NE WIND 35 KT. E OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT BECOMING SE 15 KT E OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-011500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 30 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-011500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 30 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-011500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 30 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT BY LATE EVENING. N OF
KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT. N OF
KALGIN ISLAND...SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT EXCEPT 30 KT S OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS 6
FT...EXCEPT 3 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 3 FT N OF KALGIN
ISLAND. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-011500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 30 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Sep 30, 2:00 PM AKDT, 2 hours earlier.

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT FRI SEP 30 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...INITIALIZATIONS APPEAR REASONABLE. FORECAST
SOLUTIONS SYNOPTICALLY ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THRU SUN
AFTERNOON(60HR). SOLUTIONS VARY SOME AFTER THIS WITH THE ECMWF AND
GFS REASONABLY CLOSE TO MON AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE STRENGTHENING
NORTH PACIFIC JET WILL PROVIDE SOME TIMING CHALLENGES OF SURFACE
FEATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.UPPER LEVELS(500 MB)...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR SAND POINT IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS
IT MOVES SOUTH. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
AK AND WEAKEN WHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF KODIAK SAT.
RIDGING BUILDS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN MAINLAND
TONIGHT AND SAT. THE RIDGE AXIS IS PUSHED NORTH TO OVER THE CENTRAL
MAINLAND SUN AS KODIAK CENTER LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH. RIDGING OVER THE
BERING SEA FLATTENS SAT NIGHT AS A LOW EAST OF KAMCHATKA MOVES TO THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA SUN. A STRONG AND NEARLY ZONAL JET SETS UP SOUTH
OF THIS CENTER SAT AND SPREADS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH PACIFIC BY
SUN.

.SURFACE...
980S LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE AK PEN MOVES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF AK AND
WEAKENS. ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES NORTH AND EAST THROUGH SAT AND
SLOWLY WEAKENS. A SECONDARY LOW CENTER FORMS NEAR KODIAK SAT
AFTERNOON THEN DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTH SUN AFTERNOON. A NW PACIFIC LOW
CENTER MOVES TO JUST EAST OF THE KAMCHATKA PEN TONIGHT THEN DEEPENS
INTO THE 960S AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA SUN. ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONT IMPACTS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND MOVES TO
THE WESTERN AK PEN SUN MORNING.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...RAIN WILL SPREAD TO MOST GULF LOCATIONS TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO SUN. GENERAL DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION TO A MINIMUM INLAND EXCEPT FOR EAST AND SE EXPOSURES.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF LOW CENTER AND BRING
SOME GALES TO COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND SAT AND BRISK GAP FLOWS TO
SOUTHCENTRAL. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
SUN...WITH A FEW BRIEF REPRIEVES.

.SOUTHWEST MAINLAND/AK PEN...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BRINGING
DRYING CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF SW ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY DRY THROUGH SAT. MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WILL
INTRUDE IN FROM THE SOUTH ON SUN.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AK PEN TONIGHT AS LOW CENTER
MOVES SOUTH. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SAT. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AK PEN INTO SAT.

.ALEUTIANS...WINDS ACROSS THE EAST ALEUTIANS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
AS THE LOW NEAR THE AK PEN MOVES SOUTH AND WEAKENS. A STRONG LOW
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PACIFIC AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BRING SE
GALES/STORMS TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA TONIGHT. GALES WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE BERING SEA THROUGH SAT. SW STORMS/GALES TO SOUTH OF
LOW CENTER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE W ALEUTIANS SAT NIGHT AND SPREAD
EASTWARD SUN.

.LONG TERM...A DYNAMIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH THE JET STREAM NEARBY IN THE
NORTH PACIFIC.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORMS 176 410.
         GALES 120 130 172 176 179 185 411 412 413
FIRE WEATHER...

RMC SEP 11

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2011Every small craft advisory in 2011

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.