Gale Warning 666, NWS Anchorage, AK

022 
FZAK61 PAFC 012338
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-021500-
400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 994 MB LOW NEAR 56N 146W SAT NIGHT WILL MOVE TO 59N 150W AT 990 MB
SUN AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL THEN MAKE LANDFALL OVER WESTERN COOK
INLET SUN EVENING. A 987 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO 56N 155W SUN NIGHT THEN
TO 56N 149W AT 985 MB MON AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ351-021500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-021500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT INCREASING TO SE 25 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

276 
FZAK61 PAFC 021153
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 2 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-030300-
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 2 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 993 MB LOW NEAR 56N 145W THIS MORNING MOVES TO 59N 148W AT 992 MB
SUN AFTERNOON. THIS LOW THEN MAKES LANDFALL OVER WESTERN COOK INLET
SUN EVENING. A 990 MB LOW MOVES TO 54N 149W MON MORNING THEN TO 54N
145W AT 989 MB MON AFTERNOON. 
$$

PKZ351-030300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 2 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W OF 146W...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 10 FT. 
E OF 146W...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-030300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 2 2011

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

243 
FZAK61 PAFC 022343
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 2 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-031500-
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 2 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A FRONT ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE INLAND THIS
EVENING. A 994 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR 54N 156W THIS EVENING AND
MOVE TO 54N 145W AT 990 MB MON EVENING AND THEN DISSIPATE MON NIGHT.
$$

PKZ351-031500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 2 2011

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ352-031500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 2 2011

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT FRI SEP 30 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...INITIALIZATIONS APPEAR REASONABLE. FORECAST
SOLUTIONS SYNOPTICALLY ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THRU SUN
AFTERNOON(60HR). SOLUTIONS VARY SOME AFTER THIS WITH THE ECMWF AND
GFS REASONABLY CLOSE TO MON AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE STRENGTHENING
NORTH PACIFIC JET WILL PROVIDE SOME TIMING CHALLENGES OF SURFACE
FEATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.UPPER LEVELS(500 MB)...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR SAND POINT IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS
IT MOVES SOUTH. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
AK AND WEAKEN WHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF KODIAK SAT.
RIDGING BUILDS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN MAINLAND
TONIGHT AND SAT. THE RIDGE AXIS IS PUSHED NORTH TO OVER THE CENTRAL
MAINLAND SUN AS KODIAK CENTER LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH. RIDGING OVER THE
BERING SEA FLATTENS SAT NIGHT AS A LOW EAST OF KAMCHATKA MOVES TO THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA SUN. A STRONG AND NEARLY ZONAL JET SETS UP SOUTH
OF THIS CENTER SAT AND SPREADS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH PACIFIC BY
SUN.

.SURFACE...
980S LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE AK PEN MOVES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF AK AND
WEAKENS. ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES NORTH AND EAST THROUGH SAT AND
SLOWLY WEAKENS. A SECONDARY LOW CENTER FORMS NEAR KODIAK SAT
AFTERNOON THEN DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTH SUN AFTERNOON. A NW PACIFIC LOW
CENTER MOVES TO JUST EAST OF THE KAMCHATKA PEN TONIGHT THEN DEEPENS
INTO THE 960S AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA SUN. ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONT IMPACTS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND MOVES TO
THE WESTERN AK PEN SUN MORNING.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...RAIN WILL SPREAD TO MOST GULF LOCATIONS TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO SUN. GENERAL DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION TO A MINIMUM INLAND EXCEPT FOR EAST AND SE EXPOSURES.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF LOW CENTER AND BRING
SOME GALES TO COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND SAT AND BRISK GAP FLOWS TO
SOUTHCENTRAL. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
SUN...WITH A FEW BRIEF REPRIEVES.

.SOUTHWEST MAINLAND/AK PEN...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BRINGING
DRYING CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF SW ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY DRY THROUGH SAT. MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WILL
INTRUDE IN FROM THE SOUTH ON SUN.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AK PEN TONIGHT AS LOW CENTER
MOVES SOUTH. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SAT. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AK PEN INTO SAT.

.ALEUTIANS...WINDS ACROSS THE EAST ALEUTIANS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
AS THE LOW NEAR THE AK PEN MOVES SOUTH AND WEAKENS. A STRONG LOW
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PACIFIC AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BRING SE
GALES/STORMS TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA TONIGHT. GALES WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE BERING SEA THROUGH SAT. SW STORMS/GALES TO SOUTH OF
LOW CENTER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE W ALEUTIANS SAT NIGHT AND SPREAD
EASTWARD SUN.

.LONG TERM...A DYNAMIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH THE JET STREAM NEARBY IN THE
NORTH PACIFIC.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORMS 176 410.
         GALES 120 130 172 176 179 185 411 412 413
FIRE WEATHER...

RMC SEP 11