Gale Warning 704, NWS Anchorage, AK

708 
FZAK51 PAFC 011303 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
500 AM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2011

UPDATED ZONE 125

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-020300-
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 990 MB LOW 250 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY WILL DISSIPATE AS IT 
MOVES TO 350 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK SAT NIGHT. A 995 MB LOW WILL 
FORM 475 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK SAT EVENING AND MOVE TO 65 NM 
NORTH OF KODIAK SUN AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL THEN DISSIPATE AS 
IT MOVES INLAND SUN EVENING. 
$$

PKZ120-020300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E OF CAPE CLEARE...E WIND 35 KT. W OF CAPE CLEARE...E WIND
30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-020300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-020300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
500 AM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-020300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-020300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...FROM THE BARREN ISLANDS WEST...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING 
TO 25 KT BY AFTERNOON. E OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...E WIND 20 KT. 
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING 
TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM THE BARREN ISLANDS EAST...VARIABLE 
WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT EXCEPT 7 FT W OF THE BARREN 
ISLANDS. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-020300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-020300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-020300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S OF KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT 
BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. N OF
KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S OF KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. N OF KALGIN ISLAND...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.  
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-020300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

467 
FZAK51 PAFC 012355
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-021500-
400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 994 MB LOW 270 NM SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK CITY WILL MOVE TO 70 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HOMER AT 990 MB SUN AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL THEN MAKE
LANDFALL OVER WESTERN COOK INLET SUN EVENING. A 987 MB LOW WILL MOVE
TO 90 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND SUN NIGHT THEN TO 180 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KODIAK ISLAND AT 985 MB MON AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-021500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2011

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. ALONG THE COAST EAST OF MONTAGUE ISLAND SE
WIND 55 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 50 KT. ALONG THE COAST EAST OF MONTAGUE ISLAND SE WIND
INCREASING TO 60 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. ALONG THE COAST EAST OF MONTAGUE ISLAND
SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-021500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2011

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-021500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 45 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK
ENTRANCE. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 55 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK 
ENTRANCE. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 45 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK 
ENTRANCE. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-021500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2011

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT DURING THE EVENING. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-021500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT NE 35 KT IN THE EVENING WEST OF THE
BARREN ISLANDS. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT 15 KT WEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. SEAS
12 FT EXCEPT 5 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF
THE BARREN ISLANDS...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT EXCEPT 3 FT W OF THE
BARREN ISLANDS. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-021500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-021500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-021500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-021500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT FRI SEP 30 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...INITIALIZATIONS APPEAR REASONABLE. FORECAST
SOLUTIONS SYNOPTICALLY ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THRU SUN
AFTERNOON(60HR). SOLUTIONS VARY SOME AFTER THIS WITH THE ECMWF AND
GFS REASONABLY CLOSE TO MON AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE STRENGTHENING
NORTH PACIFIC JET WILL PROVIDE SOME TIMING CHALLENGES OF SURFACE
FEATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.UPPER LEVELS(500 MB)...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR SAND POINT IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS
IT MOVES SOUTH. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
AK AND WEAKEN WHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF KODIAK SAT.
RIDGING BUILDS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN MAINLAND
TONIGHT AND SAT. THE RIDGE AXIS IS PUSHED NORTH TO OVER THE CENTRAL
MAINLAND SUN AS KODIAK CENTER LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH. RIDGING OVER THE
BERING SEA FLATTENS SAT NIGHT AS A LOW EAST OF KAMCHATKA MOVES TO THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA SUN. A STRONG AND NEARLY ZONAL JET SETS UP SOUTH
OF THIS CENTER SAT AND SPREADS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH PACIFIC BY
SUN.

.SURFACE...
980S LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE AK PEN MOVES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF AK AND
WEAKENS. ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES NORTH AND EAST THROUGH SAT AND
SLOWLY WEAKENS. A SECONDARY LOW CENTER FORMS NEAR KODIAK SAT
AFTERNOON THEN DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTH SUN AFTERNOON. A NW PACIFIC LOW
CENTER MOVES TO JUST EAST OF THE KAMCHATKA PEN TONIGHT THEN DEEPENS
INTO THE 960S AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA SUN. ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONT IMPACTS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND MOVES TO
THE WESTERN AK PEN SUN MORNING.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...RAIN WILL SPREAD TO MOST GULF LOCATIONS TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO SUN. GENERAL DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION TO A MINIMUM INLAND EXCEPT FOR EAST AND SE EXPOSURES.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF LOW CENTER AND BRING
SOME GALES TO COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND SAT AND BRISK GAP FLOWS TO
SOUTHCENTRAL. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
SUN...WITH A FEW BRIEF REPRIEVES.

.SOUTHWEST MAINLAND/AK PEN...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BRINGING
DRYING CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF SW ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY DRY THROUGH SAT. MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WILL
INTRUDE IN FROM THE SOUTH ON SUN.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AK PEN TONIGHT AS LOW CENTER
MOVES SOUTH. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SAT. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AK PEN INTO SAT.

.ALEUTIANS...WINDS ACROSS THE EAST ALEUTIANS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
AS THE LOW NEAR THE AK PEN MOVES SOUTH AND WEAKENS. A STRONG LOW
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PACIFIC AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BRING SE
GALES/STORMS TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA TONIGHT. GALES WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE BERING SEA THROUGH SAT. SW STORMS/GALES TO SOUTH OF
LOW CENTER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE W ALEUTIANS SAT NIGHT AND SPREAD
EASTWARD SUN.

.LONG TERM...A DYNAMIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH THE JET STREAM NEARBY IN THE
NORTH PACIFIC.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORMS 176 410.
         GALES 120 130 172 176 179 185 411 412 413
FIRE WEATHER...

RMC SEP 11