Small Craft Advisory 766, NWS Anchorage, AK

775 
FZAK51 PAFC 250834 AAC
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1230 AM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2011

UPDATED ZONES 121 125 129

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-251500-
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 24 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 982 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW 180 NM SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA
RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS TO 966 MB LATE TONIGHT NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
KODIAK ISLAND...THEN WEAKENS TO 988 MB AS IT MOVES TO 60 NM SOUTHWEST
OF YAKUTAT WEDNESDAY MORNING.
$$

PKZ120-251500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 24 2011

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
21 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-251500-
RESURRECTION BAY
1230 AM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS 
S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT GUSTING TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-251500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
1230 AM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2011

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE.
SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-251500-
PASSAGE CANAL
1230 AM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2011

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-251500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
455 PM AKDT MON OCT 24 2011

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING S 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON...SEAS 22 FT.
W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...E WIND 50 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON...SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT EXCEPT 12 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. RAIN. 
.WED...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-251500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
455 PM AKDT MON OCT 24 2011

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
19 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 50 KT BECOMING W 55 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 23 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
23 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-251500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
455 PM AKDT MON OCT 24 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-251500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 24 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT EXCEPT SE 20 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
8 FT. N OF KALGIN ISLAND...SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. N OF KALGIN
ISLAND...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT...SEAS
5 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. N OF KALGIN ISLAND...N WIND
15 KT...SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ141-251500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 24 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
355 PM AKDT MON OCT 24 2011

.ANYALYSIS...
DYNAMIC AND CHALLENGING WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPING EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY...THE MAIN LOW IS LOCATED JUST NORTHWEST OF
BRISTOL BAY BUT A JET FLOWING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS
HELPING TO DEVELOP A STRONG LOW THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEW SURFACE LOW
WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN TO 966 MB AS IT TRACKS TO NEAR KODIAK ISLAND
OVERNIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION IS APPARENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH BASED ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY. FURTHER WEST...A WEAK RIDGE IS
BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE TODAY IS PICKING THE CORRECT MODEL SOLUTION.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA IS ALREADY SHOWING
CIRCULATION AS THE LOW BEGINS TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP. THE NAM CONTINUES
TO BE VERY SLOW AND TOO FAR SOUTH WITH ITS INITIALIZATION OF THIS
FEATURE. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A BETTER HANDLING BUT STILL SEEM A
BIT TOO FAR NORTH. A CREATIVE BLEND OF PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WAS USED
TO BEST INDICATE OUR PROJECTED PATH OF THE LOW AS IT DEEPENS AND
MOVES JUST SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK ISLAND AND THEN INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
BY TUESDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE WIDE SPREAD OF MODEL SOLUTIONS AND LACK
OF OBSERVATIONS WHERE THE STORM IS ORIGINATING FROM...CONFIDENCE IS
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS.

SHORT TERM...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A RELATIVELY WARM
AIRMASS IS PROVIDING MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES REMAINED JUST COLD ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY AND THROUGH THOMPSON
PASS WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.

CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL INCLUDE MUCH STRONGER WIND
THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. AN INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE ORIGINAL PARENT LOW WILL HELP TIGHTEN
UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CHUGACH RANGE. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT OVERNIGHT WILL BE MINIMAL BUT THE GRADIENT SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO BRING WARNING LEVEL WINDS TO TURNAGAIN ARM AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

THEN AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...THE GRADIENT WILL CHANGE ITS
ORIENTATION ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE WESTERN TURNAGAIN ARM AND HILLSIDE
WINDS TO SUBSIDE WHILE THE PORTAGE VALLEY WINDS INCREASE. WE ARE
CONSIDERING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHORT LIVED WARNING EVENT IN BOTH
PORTAGE AND CORDOVA AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN RAPIDLY MOVES
ONSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

SUCH A STRONG LOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
DOWNSLOPE...MEANING MOST OF THE TYPICALLY DRY AREAS SUCH AS THE
WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND ANCHORAGE BOWL WILL LIKELY STILL SEE RAIN
DURING THIS EVENT DESPITE THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.

ANOTHER CONSIDERATION IS THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL ANCHORAGE LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF...COLD AIR BEGINS TO FUNNEL IN FROM THE WEST AS THE
UPPER TROF APPROACHES. ASSUMING THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE...THESE ARE
ALL INGREDIENTS FOR MEASURABLE SNOWFALL IN ANCHORAGE. SO WE WILL
INTRODUCE RAIN CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT SNOW AND ACCUMULATING LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE ANCHORAGE BOWL.

.SOUTHWEST AK/AK PEN...
THE WEATHER PICTURE IS A LITTLE MORE CLEAR OUT WEST WHERE OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE IS SPREADING NORTH. RAIN AND SNOW IS FALLING OVER MUCH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA AS THE INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FAR INTO THE
INTERIOR. THE LOW DEVELOPS AND THE WINDS RESPOND WITH A 75 TO 80 KT
LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING AS 80 MPH
WINDS ARE LIKELY THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN IN THIS REGION. THE EVENT
WILL BE SHORTLIVED AS THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS FLATTENS
AND SHIFTS EAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS ALSO IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER
DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA THAT WILL RACE ACROSS THE
BERING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...REACHING BRISTOL BAY BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

A TRANSIENT RIDGE GIVES WAY TO ANOTHER LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT OUT WEST.
THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING...181
MARINE...STORM...120 125 130 132 150 155 160 165 170.
         GALE...129 138 140 171 172 175 176 179 180 185.
FIRE...NONE.

AB OCT 11