Alert archive / Alaska / Gale Warnings in 2011
Gale Warning 690, NWS Anchorage, AK
NWS Anchorage, AK issued this gale warning at Oct 25, 2011, 4:00 AM AKDT. It was in force for 48 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 25, 2011, 4:00 AM AKDT (12:00 UTC)
- Expired
- Oct 27, 2011, 4:00 AM AKDT
- In force
- 48 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Anchorage, AK
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
273 FZAK62 PAFC 251203 OFFALU OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK 400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2011 OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ499-260300- 400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2011 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A 965 MB LOW NEAR 56N 155W WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF TODAY. A 998 MB LOW NEAR 58N 173E WILL BECOME A 988 MB LOW NEAR 58N 160W WED AFTERNOON THEN MOVE NEAR 58N 153W WED NIGHT AT 988 MB. A 990 MB LOW NEAR 52N 156E WED MORNING WILL STRENGTHEN TO 979 MB NEAR 55N 171E WED NIGHT. $$ PKZ411-260300- BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE 400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2011 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. NORTH OF 56 N...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. .TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. .WED...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. .WED NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. .THU...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. .FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. .SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. $$ PKZ412-260300- BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N 400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2011 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .TODAY...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. .TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 30 TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. .WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. .WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. .THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. .FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. .SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. $$ PKZ413-260300- BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N 400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2011 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .TODAY...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN. .WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. .WED NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. .THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. .FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. .SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. $$ PKZ414-260300- BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W 400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2011 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .TODAY...NW WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. .TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. .WED...NW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. .WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. .THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. .FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. .SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. $$
4 follow-up statements
816 FZAK62 PAFC 252333 OFFALU OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK 400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2011 OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ499-261500- 400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2011 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A 987 MB LOW NEAR 58N 179W MOVES TO NEAR 55N 155W THURSDAY MORNING AT 993 MB. A 978 MB LOW MOVES TO NEAR 54N 166E WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN MOVES TO 56N 179W THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT 974 MB. $$ PKZ411-261500- BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE 400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2011 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. .WED...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. .WED NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. .THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. .THU NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. .FRI...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. .SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. .SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. $$ PKZ412-261500- BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N 400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2011 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. .WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. PATCHY FOG. .WED NIGHT...W OF 175W...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. E OF 175W...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. .THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. .THU NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. .FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. .SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. .SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. $$ PKZ413-261500- BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N 400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2011 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN. .WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. PATCHY FOG. .WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. .THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. .THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. .FRI...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. .SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. .SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. $$ PKZ414-261500- BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W 400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2011 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. .WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. .WED NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. .THU AND THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. .FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. .SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. .SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. $$
300 FZAK62 PAFC 261213 OFFALU OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK 400 AM AKDT WED OCT 26 2011 OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ499-270300- 400 AM AKDT WED OCT 26 2011 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A 987 MB LOW NEAR 57N 170W WILL BECOME A 991 MB LOW NEAR 57N 161W WED AFTERNOON THEN MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA THU NIGHT. A 982 MB LOW NEAR 54N 163E WED AFTERNOON WILL BECOME A 974 MB LOW NEAR 54N 176W THU NIGHT. $$ PKZ411-270300- BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE 400 AM AKDT WED OCT 26 2011 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... .TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT TO 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. .TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. .THU...SW WIND 40 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN. .THU NIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. .FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. .SAT AND SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. $$ PKZ412-270300- BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N 400 AM AKDT WED OCT 26 2011 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY... .TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. .TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. .THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. .THU NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. .FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. .SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. .SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. $$ PKZ413-270300- BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N 400 AM AKDT WED OCT 26 2011 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY... .TODAY...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. .TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. .THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. .THU NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. .FRI...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. .SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. .SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. $$ PKZ414-270300- BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W 400 AM AKDT WED OCT 26 2011 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...NW WIND 45 KT DECREASING TO 30 KT BY NOON. SEAS 16 FT. .TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16 FT. .THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. .THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. .FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. .SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. .SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. $$
079 FZAK62 PAFC 262310 OFFALU OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK 400 PM AKDT WED OCT 26 2011 OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ499-271500- 400 PM AKDT WED OCT 26 2011 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A 990 MB LOW NEAR 57N 161W MOVES TO NEAR 57N 153W THURSDAY MORNING. A 980 MB LOW NEAR 54N 163E MOVES TO NEAR 53N 170W FRIDAY MORNING...THEN MERGES WITH A 977 MB LOW THAT DEVELOPS NEAR 55N 162W. $$ PKZ411-271500- BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE 400 PM AKDT WED OCT 26 2011 ...STORM WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. .THU...N OF 56N...E WIND 40 KT. S OF 56N...W 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. .THU NIGHT...NW WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. .FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. .FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. .SAT AND SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. .MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. $$ PKZ412-271500- BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N 400 PM AKDT WED OCT 26 2011 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...W OF 175W...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. E OF 175W...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. .THU...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. .THU NIGHT...NE WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. .FRI...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. .FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. .SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. .SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. .MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. $$ PKZ413-271500- BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N 400 PM AKDT WED OCT 26 2011 ...STORM WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. .THU...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. .THU NIGHT...W OF 175W...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. E OF 175W...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN. .FRI...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. .FRI NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. .SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. .SUN AND MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. $$ PKZ414-271500- BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W 400 PM AKDT WED OCT 26 2011 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. .THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. .THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. .FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. .FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. .SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. .SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. .MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. $$
832 FZAK62 PAFC 271219 OFFALU OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK 400 AM AKDT THU OCT 27 2011 OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ499-280300- 400 AM AKDT THU OCT 27 2011 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A 991 MB LOW NEAR 57N 154W WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF THU NIGHT. A 975 MB LOW NEAR 56N 171E WILL MOVE TO 55N 163W FRI AFTERNOON THEN TO 57N 150W FRI NIGHT. $$ PKZ411-280300- BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE 400 AM AKDT THU OCT 27 2011 ...STORM WARNING TONIGHT... .TODAY...SW WIND 40 KT. NORTH OF 56 N...N 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. .FRI...NW WIND 45 KT BECOMING W 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT. .FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. .SAT AND SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. .MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. $$ PKZ412-280300- BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N 400 AM AKDT THU OCT 27 2011 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY... .TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. .TONIGHT...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. .FRI...N WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. .FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. .SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. .SUN AND MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. $$ PKZ413-280300- BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N 400 AM AKDT THU OCT 27 2011 ...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY... .TODAY...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 18 FT. .FRI...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. .FRI NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. .SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. .SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. .MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. $$ PKZ414-280300- BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W 400 AM AKDT THU OCT 27 2011 .TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. .FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. .FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. .SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. .SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. .MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this gale warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Oct 24, 3:55 PM AKDT, 12 hours 5 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Oct 24, 3:55 PM AKDT, 12 hours 5 minutes before
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
355 PM AKDT MON OCT 24 2011
.ANYALYSIS...
DYNAMIC AND CHALLENGING WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPING EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY...THE MAIN LOW IS LOCATED JUST NORTHWEST OF
BRISTOL BAY BUT A JET FLOWING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS
HELPING TO DEVELOP A STRONG LOW THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEW SURFACE LOW
WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN TO 966 MB AS IT TRACKS TO NEAR KODIAK ISLAND
OVERNIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION IS APPARENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH BASED ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY. FURTHER WEST...A WEAK RIDGE IS
BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA.
.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE TODAY IS PICKING THE CORRECT MODEL SOLUTION.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA IS ALREADY SHOWING
CIRCULATION AS THE LOW BEGINS TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP. THE NAM CONTINUES
TO BE VERY SLOW AND TOO FAR SOUTH WITH ITS INITIALIZATION OF THIS
FEATURE. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A BETTER HANDLING BUT STILL SEEM A
BIT TOO FAR NORTH. A CREATIVE BLEND OF PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WAS USED
TO BEST INDICATE OUR PROJECTED PATH OF THE LOW AS IT DEEPENS AND
MOVES JUST SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK ISLAND AND THEN INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
BY TUESDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE WIDE SPREAD OF MODEL SOLUTIONS AND LACK
OF OBSERVATIONS WHERE THE STORM IS ORIGINATING FROM...CONFIDENCE IS
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS.
SHORT TERM...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A RELATIVELY WARM
AIRMASS IS PROVIDING MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES REMAINED JUST COLD ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY AND THROUGH THOMPSON
PASS WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.
CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL INCLUDE MUCH STRONGER WIND
THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. AN INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE ORIGINAL PARENT LOW WILL HELP TIGHTEN
UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CHUGACH RANGE. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT OVERNIGHT WILL BE MINIMAL BUT THE GRADIENT SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO BRING WARNING LEVEL WINDS TO TURNAGAIN ARM AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
THEN AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...THE GRADIENT WILL CHANGE ITS
ORIENTATION ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE WESTERN TURNAGAIN ARM AND HILLSIDE
WINDS TO SUBSIDE WHILE THE PORTAGE VALLEY WINDS INCREASE. WE ARE
CONSIDERING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHORT LIVED WARNING EVENT IN BOTH
PORTAGE AND CORDOVA AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN RAPIDLY MOVES
ONSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SUCH A STRONG LOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
DOWNSLOPE...MEANING MOST OF THE TYPICALLY DRY AREAS SUCH AS THE
WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND ANCHORAGE BOWL WILL LIKELY STILL SEE RAIN
DURING THIS EVENT DESPITE THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.
ANOTHER CONSIDERATION IS THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL ANCHORAGE LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF...COLD AIR BEGINS TO FUNNEL IN FROM THE WEST AS THE
UPPER TROF APPROACHES. ASSUMING THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE...THESE ARE
ALL INGREDIENTS FOR MEASURABLE SNOWFALL IN ANCHORAGE. SO WE WILL
INTRODUCE RAIN CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT SNOW AND ACCUMULATING LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE ANCHORAGE BOWL.
.SOUTHWEST AK/AK PEN...
THE WEATHER PICTURE IS A LITTLE MORE CLEAR OUT WEST WHERE OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE IS SPREADING NORTH. RAIN AND SNOW IS FALLING OVER MUCH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA AS THE INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FAR INTO THE
INTERIOR. THE LOW DEVELOPS AND THE WINDS RESPOND WITH A 75 TO 80 KT
LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING AS 80 MPH
WINDS ARE LIKELY THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN IN THIS REGION. THE EVENT
WILL BE SHORTLIVED AS THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS FLATTENS
AND SHIFTS EAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS ALSO IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER
DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA THAT WILL RACE ACROSS THE
BERING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...REACHING BRISTOL BAY BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
A TRANSIENT RIDGE GIVES WAY TO ANOTHER LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT OUT WEST.
THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES.
.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING...181
MARINE...STORM...120 125 130 132 150 155 160 165 170.
GALE...129 138 140 171 172 175 176 179 180 185.
FIRE...NONE.
AB OCT 11The office that day
Everything else NWS Anchorage, AK issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 4:00 PM AKDT | Gale Warning | AFC | 48 hr | |
| Oct 24, 4:00 PM AKDT | Storm Warning | AFC | 24 hr | |
| Oct 24, 6:40 PM AKDT | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 6 hr | |
| Oct 24, 7:37 PM AKDT | High Wind Warning | AFC | 4 hr | |
| Oct 25, 12:08 AM AKDT | High Wind Warning | AFC | 26 hr | |
| Oct 25, 12:30 AM AKDT | Gale Warning | AFC | 9 hr | |
| Oct 25, 4:00 AM AKDT | Gale Warning | AFC | 48 hr | |
| Oct 25, 4:00 AM AKDT | Gale Warning | AFC | 24 hr | |
| Oct 25, 4:00 AM AKDT | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 48 hr | |
| Oct 25, 4:00 AM AKDT | Storm Warning | AFC | 12 hr | |
| Oct 25, 7:07 AM AKDT | Areal Flood Advisory | AFC | 21 hr | |
| Oct 25, 7:15 AM AKDT | Areal Flood Advisory | AFC | 25 hr | |
| Oct 25, 9:00 AM AKDT | Hurricane Force Wind Warning | AFC | 7 hr | |
| Oct 25, 10:53 AM AKDT | Areal Flood Advisory | AFC | 24 hr |
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.