Small Craft Advisory 764, NWS Anchorage, AK

798 
FZAK52 PAFC 231519 CCC
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA...CORRECTION
715 AM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2011

CORRECTION TO SYNOPSIS

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-240300-
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 984 MB LOW 150 NM WEST OF SAINT PAUL WILL STRENGTHEN TO 979 MB
180 NM NORTH OF COLD BAY MON MORNING THEN MOVE INLAND NEAR
KIPNUK MON NIGHT. A 999 MB LOW 450 NM SOUTH OF ADAK SUN EVENING WILL
STRENGTHEN TO 976 MB 240 NM SOUTH OF CHIGNIK MON NIGHT.  

$$

PKZ150-240300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-240300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-240300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-240300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 12
FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-240300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-240300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-240300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-240300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT BERING SIDE...W 30 KT PACIFIC SIDE. SEAS 20
FT BERING SIDE...12 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-240300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2011

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT BERING SIDE...12 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-240300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-240300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-240300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2011

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

186 
FZAK52 PAFC 232358
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-241500-
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 980 MB LOW 220 NM WEST OF ST PAUL ISLAND WILL DEEPEN TO 976 MB 180
NM EAST OF ST PAUL ISLAND MON AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA TUE MORNING. A 993 MB LOW 375 NM NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA
WILL MOVE TO 360 NM NORTHEAST OF SHEMYA AT 988 MB TUE AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ150-241500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-241500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-241500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2011

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-241500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2011

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT EXCEPT SW 20 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. GUSTS TO 45
KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. FROM PORT MOLLER E...S WIND 15 KT
BECOMING W 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 18 FT EXCEPT 10 FT FROM PORT
MOLLER E. RAIN.
.TUE...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-241500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2011

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-241500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2011

...STORM WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14
FT. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT BERING SIDE...15 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. 
.TUE...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-241500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2011

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 21
FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-241500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 17 FT.
RAIN.
.MON...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT...EXCEPT 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT W OF
SEGUAM ISLAND. SEAS 24 FT BERING SIDE...17 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-241500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT BERING SIDE...11 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT BERING SIDE...13 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT.   

$$

PKZ176-241500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2011

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-241500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-241500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2011

...STORM WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT
SUBSIDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT SAT OCT 22 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL INITIALIZATIONS WERE REASONABLE AND IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE MODELS WHICH HAD BEEN STRUGGLING WITH
THE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE BERING SEA THIS WEEKEND AND A POTENTIAL
STORM CENTER ENTERING THE WESTERN GULF TUE ARE CONVERGING ON A COMMON
SOLUTION. THE GFS/EC ARE IN BEST AGREEMENT AND THE MOST REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME. SO AFTERNOON PACKAGES WILL BE A MIX OF THE
GFS/ECMWF...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MINOR CHANGES OVERALL.

.ANALYSIS
.500 MB...OLD STACKED LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA IS SLOWLY MOVING
EAST AND WEAKENING. A WEAK TROUGH IS MOVING OVER THE NORTH GULF THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER
THE EASTERN BERING SEA MOVES ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TONIGHT. A
STRENGTHENING LOW CENTER OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA MOVES TO OVER
THE EASTERN BERING SEA SUN THEN LIFTS NORTH OF NEAR NORTON SOUND MON
NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH DIGS SW TO ALONG 170W MON AFTERNOON WITH
A CENTER FORMING NEAR 50N 160W MON EVENING. THIS CENTER CONTINUES TO
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO NEAR KODIAK ISLAND TUE AFTERNOON.

.SURFACE...THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE NORTH GULF IS
WEAKENING AND SHOULD DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A OLD LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK
MOVES EASTWARD IN THE GULF AND WEAKENS. A DEVELOPING LOW CENTER
ENTERING THE WESTERN BERING SEA THIS AFTERNOON DEEPENS INTO THE UPPER
970S/LOWER 980S AS IT MOVES TO THE EASTERN BERING SEA LATE SUN. THE
CENTER SLOWLY WEAKENS AS SECONDARY CENTERS FORM UNDER THE BROADENING
UPPER TROUGH WITH THE OVERALL LOW COMPLEX LIFTING NORTH MON NIGHT.
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES TO THE SW ALASKA COAST/CENTRAL AK PEN THEN
INTO THE SW INTERIOR AND SOUTHCENTRAL SUN NIGHT/MON. A DEVELOPING
STORM LOW CENTER FORMS SOUTH OF THE EAST ALEUTIANS MON IN RESPONSE TO
A DIGGING TROUGH ALOFT. THIS CENTER RAPIDLY NE TO NEAR KODIAK ISLAND
TUE AFTERNOON AND ITS PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE UPPER 960S.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...A WEAKENING TROUGH OVER THE NORTH GULF AND
SHOULD WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
LIGHT MIX ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH MON. ALSO MAY SEE SOME AREAS OF
LOW STRATUS AND FOG OVER COOK INLET TONIGHT. EXPECT INCREASING
CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW SUN NIGHT AND MON AS THE FRONTAL TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERING SEA LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION. MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL IS LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH GENERALLY RAIN ALONG THE COASTS AND A MIX ELSEWHERE.
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MON WILL
PRODUCE STRONG GAP FLOWS. THE DEVELOPING STORM CENTER APPROACHING THE
GULF TUE WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND GALES/STORM FORCE WINDS
TO MUCH OF THE GULF AND COASTAL MARINE AREAS AS WELL AS LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS INLAND AREAS. PRECIPITATION IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD
BE GENERALLY RAIN OR TRANSITION TO RAIN TUE...WITH THE COASTS
RECEIVING THE BRUNT OF IT.

.SW ALASKA...SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT AN APPROACHING FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BRING WINDY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH RAIN AND SNOW MOVING
INTO COASTAL SW ALASKA BY SUN AFTERNOON. CHANCES AT RAIN AND SNOW
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH MON AS A LOW COMPLEX
HOLDS OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA.

.ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...RAIN AND THEN SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEVELOPING BERING LOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH SUN. DRYING
WILL THEN SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
BERING INTO TUE. EXPECT STRONG WINDS IN ADVANCE OF FRONTAL TROUGH AND
ACCOMPANYING LOW CENTER MOVING ACROSS THE BERING SEA TONIGHT AND SUN.

AS THE LOW TRAVELS EAST...EXPECT STRONG NORTHERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE CENTER.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A FEW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS TUE NIGHT AND
WED...AND THEN A WEATHER FRONT ENTERS THE WESTERN BERING THU WITH
WIND AND RAIN. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF OVER SW AK BY MIDWEEK AS THE
MERGED LOW LEAVES THE AREA...BUT THIS MEANS SOUTHEAST OF THE AK RANGE
WILL HAVE ABUNDANT RAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE DRYING OUT THU.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 170 172 175 176 185 411 412 413 414
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC OCT 11