Gale Warning 688, NWS Anchorage, AK

298 
FZAK61 PAFC 232343
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-241500-
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 977 MB LOW NEAR 57N 154W MON NIGHT WILL MOVE TO 60N 153W AT 980 MB
TUE AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ351-241500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2011

...STORM WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9
FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
$$

PKZ352-241500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2011

...STORM WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  
$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT SAT OCT 22 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL INITIALIZATIONS WERE REASONABLE AND IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE MODELS WHICH HAD BEEN STRUGGLING WITH
THE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE BERING SEA THIS WEEKEND AND A POTENTIAL
STORM CENTER ENTERING THE WESTERN GULF TUE ARE CONVERGING ON A COMMON
SOLUTION. THE GFS/EC ARE IN BEST AGREEMENT AND THE MOST REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME. SO AFTERNOON PACKAGES WILL BE A MIX OF THE
GFS/ECMWF...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MINOR CHANGES OVERALL.

.ANALYSIS
.500 MB...OLD STACKED LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA IS SLOWLY MOVING
EAST AND WEAKENING. A WEAK TROUGH IS MOVING OVER THE NORTH GULF THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER
THE EASTERN BERING SEA MOVES ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TONIGHT. A
STRENGTHENING LOW CENTER OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA MOVES TO OVER
THE EASTERN BERING SEA SUN THEN LIFTS NORTH OF NEAR NORTON SOUND MON
NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH DIGS SW TO ALONG 170W MON AFTERNOON WITH
A CENTER FORMING NEAR 50N 160W MON EVENING. THIS CENTER CONTINUES TO
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO NEAR KODIAK ISLAND TUE AFTERNOON.

.SURFACE...THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE NORTH GULF IS
WEAKENING AND SHOULD DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A OLD LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK
MOVES EASTWARD IN THE GULF AND WEAKENS. A DEVELOPING LOW CENTER
ENTERING THE WESTERN BERING SEA THIS AFTERNOON DEEPENS INTO THE UPPER
970S/LOWER 980S AS IT MOVES TO THE EASTERN BERING SEA LATE SUN. THE
CENTER SLOWLY WEAKENS AS SECONDARY CENTERS FORM UNDER THE BROADENING
UPPER TROUGH WITH THE OVERALL LOW COMPLEX LIFTING NORTH MON NIGHT.
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES TO THE SW ALASKA COAST/CENTRAL AK PEN THEN
INTO THE SW INTERIOR AND SOUTHCENTRAL SUN NIGHT/MON. A DEVELOPING
STORM LOW CENTER FORMS SOUTH OF THE EAST ALEUTIANS MON IN RESPONSE TO
A DIGGING TROUGH ALOFT. THIS CENTER RAPIDLY NE TO NEAR KODIAK ISLAND
TUE AFTERNOON AND ITS PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE UPPER 960S.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...A WEAKENING TROUGH OVER THE NORTH GULF AND
SHOULD WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
LIGHT MIX ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH MON. ALSO MAY SEE SOME AREAS OF
LOW STRATUS AND FOG OVER COOK INLET TONIGHT. EXPECT INCREASING
CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW SUN NIGHT AND MON AS THE FRONTAL TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERING SEA LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION. MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL IS LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH GENERALLY RAIN ALONG THE COASTS AND A MIX ELSEWHERE.
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MON WILL
PRODUCE STRONG GAP FLOWS. THE DEVELOPING STORM CENTER APPROACHING THE
GULF TUE WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND GALES/STORM FORCE WINDS
TO MUCH OF THE GULF AND COASTAL MARINE AREAS AS WELL AS LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS INLAND AREAS. PRECIPITATION IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD
BE GENERALLY RAIN OR TRANSITION TO RAIN TUE...WITH THE COASTS
RECEIVING THE BRUNT OF IT.

.SW ALASKA...SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT AN APPROACHING FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BRING WINDY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH RAIN AND SNOW MOVING
INTO COASTAL SW ALASKA BY SUN AFTERNOON. CHANCES AT RAIN AND SNOW
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH MON AS A LOW COMPLEX
HOLDS OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA.

.ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...RAIN AND THEN SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEVELOPING BERING LOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH SUN. DRYING
WILL THEN SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
BERING INTO TUE. EXPECT STRONG WINDS IN ADVANCE OF FRONTAL TROUGH AND
ACCOMPANYING LOW CENTER MOVING ACROSS THE BERING SEA TONIGHT AND SUN.

AS THE LOW TRAVELS EAST...EXPECT STRONG NORTHERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE CENTER.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A FEW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS TUE NIGHT AND
WED...AND THEN A WEATHER FRONT ENTERS THE WESTERN BERING THU WITH
WIND AND RAIN. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF OVER SW AK BY MIDWEEK AS THE
MERGED LOW LEAVES THE AREA...BUT THIS MEANS SOUTHEAST OF THE AK RANGE
WILL HAVE ABUNDANT RAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE DRYING OUT THU.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 170 172 175 176 185 411 412 413 414
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC OCT 11